What is AGI and why should you care?

“Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world."

In no particular order of fearmongering, that was Vladimir Putin, talking about AI, in 2017.

Through his assertion, Putin acknowledged AI as not merely an advancement in technology but a pivotal force capable of reshaping the geopolitical landscape.

Historically, technological superiority has been a cornerstone of global dominance. The British Empire, which controlled vast territories across the globe, is a prime example. Its supremacy was largely due to advances in naval technology and the industrial revolution, effectively creating an empire where "the sun never set."

As the CEO of an AI firm, I navigate the realms of AI with a perspective deeply rooted in the possibilities and challenges it brings, especially in the context of India. Drawing from historical parallels, I can see the critical role AI will play, not just in technology, but as a pivotal element of national strategy.

In March 2024, The Indian Cabinet approved the ‘India AI mission’ with a funding of over 10,000 crores across five years to enhance AI development. The funding will support the creation of a comprehensive AI supercomputing infrastructure accessible to startups, academia, and industry.

With its commitment to developing AI, India is poised to not only participate in but also drive the next wave of technological innovation. While this would require building on the foundational progress in AI it also requires preparing for the next evolutionary leap that is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

AGI refers to an AI system with general intelligence that can match or surpass human cognitive abilities across virtually all domains, including reasoning, learning, perception, and problem-solving. Achieving AGI could potentially lead to powerful AI systems that, if misused, pose significant risks.

Unlike narrow AI, which is designed to perform specific tasks with expertise, AGI can generalize its understanding and reasoning to solve any problem, including those it has not been specifically programmed for. That means AGI can perform any intellectual task that a human being can, and it would essentially mean creating machines with the cognitive flexibility and depth akin to the human thought process.

Imagine healthcare. An AGI system will monitor individual health metrics in real time, predict potential health issues before they manifest, and seamlessly coordinate with medical professionals to customize preventative care and treatments. This will not only optimize healthcare delivery but dramatically enhance life expectancy and quality.

In an (ideal) AGI world, cities would operate with optimized energy use and minimal waste, while global challenges such as climate change are tackled through predictive modelling and advanced engineering solutions. While this promises a leap in efficiency and capability, it necessitates stringent safeguards against potential misuses such as surveillance overreach and autonomous weaponry, ensuring that AGI serves to enhance, rather than undermine, human autonomy and equity.

The recent advancements in AI have shifted expert predictions for the development of AGI from the previously estimated 50 years to potentially in the next 5 years.

While the probability of developing AGI within the next five years might be relatively low (estimates range from 10-50%) the risks associated with its emergence should not be underestimated. Just as a 10% chance of an asteroid colliding with Earth would trigger widespread global preparedness efforts, the potential development of AGI demands as much attention and proactivity.

India adds approximately 1 million people to its workforce each month. This rapid demographic expansion could expose vulnerabilities if the workforce isn't equipped for an AGI-driven economy that may radically transform job markets and economic structures.

Additionally, India's strategic position in a volatile regional security environment underscores the imperative to integrate AGI into its defence strategy. Enhancing capabilities through better decision-making, autonomous weapon systems, and advanced cyber defences is critical, especially in light of events like the 2020 Mumbai blackout—suspected to be a cyberattack—which highlights the potential disruptions in an increasingly AI-influenced world.

Human nature often leads us to underestimate and underprepare for catastrophic risks, primarily because such events are rare and outside the realm of our daily experiences. This psychological tendency, known as the availability heuristic, means we often discount the likelihood and potential impact of events that are not readily recalled or perceived as immediate threats. Consequently, it is not instinctive for individuals or even businesses to invest in preparations for low-probability, high-impact events.

Given this natural inclination to overlook distant dangers, the responsibility falls heavily on Indian policymakers and the government to proactively safeguard against these risks.

So, what can we do?

1.Recognizing AGI as a critical national interest, India should establish a dedicated Department of Artificial Intelligence.

This move would create a centralized authority responsible for coordinating all AI-related activities, mirroring the urgency and focus that was historically applied to nuclear capabilities with the creation of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and to space technology with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). The department should not only set standards and guidelines for AI development but also drive national AI policies and initiatives that align with India’s strategic interests.

2.To truly harness the potential of AI and foundation models, India should implement policies to liberate and democratize access to vast datasets across public and private sectors.

By making more data available, India can stimulate the development of more robust AI models that are tailored to its unique demographic and socio-economic landscape. This step is crucial for fostering a thriving AI ecosystem that can compete on a global scale and address local challenges effectively.

3.To enhance national security and innovation, India should create an AI ecosystem for strategic AI use cases.

The focus should be on developing a robust AI ecosystem tailored to strategic use cases such as defense, drone technology, cybersecurity, and other AI-driven technologies. India must foster an environment that supports the creation of companies capable of developing and supplying these technologies, thereby serving as key partners to the government.

This initiative could emulate successful models like the U.S. government’s backing of Palantir through In-Q-Tel and Israel’s support of Elbit Systems via its Ministry of Defense. Investment from the National AI Mission can be strategically directed to co-invest in deep-tech startups, providing them with critical use cases and adequate capital to thrive and succeed on a global scale.

4.To build AI proficiency nationwide, India should launch a comprehensive National AI Skilling Initiative.

The government should set goals to train 50 million people in AI usage skills such as data literacy, AI ethics, and applications in specific sectors like healthcare, finance, and manufacturing. Additionally, a targeted initiative to cultivate advanced skills should aim to train 1 million individuals in AI development, covering areas such as machine learning, neural networks, and natural language processing.

To achieve these objectives, India can harness partnerships with universities and technical institutes to integrate AI-focused curricula, launch specialized degree programs, and promote continuing education modules. Collaborations with online education platforms can provide scalable access to courses. Working with the industry can ensure that the training provided is relevant and directly applicable, enabling hands-on experience through internships, apprenticeships, and real-world project engagements.

With AGI, it will be no more about leading in technology, but about mastering a domain that could very well dictate the course of human evolution, economics, and global governance. This is what Putin’s quote foreshadows.

Just as Britain's technological edge dictated its global influence, mastery over AGI could very well dictate the future of global governance and power, ushering in an era where control over this transformative technology determines the leaders of the world.

I continue to remain optimistic. I believe in the transformative power of AI to benefit humanity. However, it is incumbent upon us all, as stewards of this technology, to ensure that as we stride into the future, we do so with caution, responsibility, and a collective vision for a world where technology serves the greater good.

Just as we recognize the need to manage and regulate nuclear technology due to its potential for both unparalleled benefits and catastrophic consequences, we must recognize AGI with a similar level of caution and governance.

AGI presents a paradigm shift in how we envision the future of technology and its role in society. How we choose to navigate this landscape will not only determine our place in the world of tomorrow but will also define the legacy we leave for future generations.

A version of this article was originally published in The Mint (Premium): https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/artificial-general-intelligence-could-reboot-india-s-prospects-11717958158731.html

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