What Actually Mattered This Week: War in Ukraine, Biden's State of the Union

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WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERED THIS WEEK

My thoughts on some of this week’s biggest news stories:

Fears mount of a horrific Russian escalation in Ukraine

A week of war and a new cold war.

Most of the news (and longer term analysis) is horrifying, but there are three silver linings:

1. The US, EU, and NATO are far more aligned than before the war
2. China is more neutral than when Putin visited Beijing
3. Ukraine is winning the information war (helping 1 & 2)

It’s hard to see any circumstance where Russia isn’t radically weaker (both economically and geopolitically) than before Putin decided to invade Ukraine. Unless he’s forced out (possible but you wouldn’t bet on it), the present path isn’t sustainable.

Western leaders don’t believe that they’ve declared war against the Russians, but from Putin’s perspective, the US sharing real-time intelligence with Ukraine, NATO providing weapons, and crippling the Russian economy are acts of war. Sending troops to defend Ukraine or imposing a no-fly zone would be even riskier.

When American presidents appeared unhinged (Nixon, Trump), national security officials stepped in to ensure there were guardrails on the nuclear button. Is this possible in Russia? We have no idea.

State of the Union: Biden vows to halt Russia, hit inflation

The first half was pretty good. Biden was energetic and bipartisan. He talked about freedom and Ukraine and banning Russian planes, but sort of skipped over the part where he asked Americans to sacrifice. Then he pivoted to the bipartisan infrastructure deal, which was fine, followed by a long, boring Democratic campaign rally that was just a list of things he's never going to sign into law. Other topics covered: covid, fund the police, gun control, voting rights, Supreme Court, immigration reform, abortion, drugs, etc.

What a weird speech.

Biden should've wrapped after Ukraine or ended on it. That part was awesome.

Prefer long-form analysis? Here are my thoughts on how Putin united the world against him.

TRUTHS, DAMNED TRUTHS, AND STATISTICS

# of Ukrainian refugees by target country, as of March 2:

Poland 454k

Hungary 116k

Slovakia 67K

Moldova 65k

Russia 43k

Romania 38k

Belarus 341

Other European countries 52k

-UNHCR

THE GZERO WORLD WE’RE JUST LIVING IN

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GRAPHIC TRUTH

YOUR GZERO WORLD

After weeks of military buildup and lies, Russia has attacked Ukraine. We are watching a worst-case scenario — a full invasion by land, sea, and cyberspace — play out in real time. With diplomacy dead, Western allies are now turning to sanctions.

The mood was somber at the recent Munich Security Conference, where world leaders were scrambling to avoid exactly this outcome.

On GZERO World, I talk to former CIA boss David Petraeus to discuss the "porcupine" Vladimir Putin has eaten, and to John Kerry, former US Secretary of State and the Biden administration's current climate czar, about Putin's other big problem with climate.

For a longer, more in-depth version of my interview with Petraeus, check out the GZERO World podcast.

WORLD IN 60 SECONDS

As Russian troops approach Kyiv, what will happen if it falls?

How has the West reacted to Lavrov's UN speech?

Will Taiwan be the next Ukraine?

Find out in this week’s World in 60 Seconds!

Do you like what you’ve seen? Subscribe and stay informed.

BECAUSE THE INTERNET

There's a difference

WHAT TO READ THIS WEEK

How Civil Wars Start by Barbara Walter

How Civil Wars start delves into the recent history of civil wars and brings to the surface their common themes, the overarching one being that civil wars tend to be initiated by a group that finds itself falling out of power and stoked by what Walter calls “ethnic entrepreneurs” who breed resentment and factionalization. Walter applies her analysis to the United States and charts a not-so-pretty path of where the US is headed and how a modern-day civil war in the US would unfold.

DEEP THOUGHTS

“The bad news is time flies, the good news is you’re the pilot.” – Michael Altshuler

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Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media and foreign affairs columnist at TIME. He currently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and previously was a professor at New York University. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.