What Actually Mattered This Week: Russia Invades Ukraine
WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERED THIS WEEK
My thoughts on some of this week’s biggest news stories:
A Russian invasion of Ukraine has begun. This is a turning point in the global order. There is no more powerful rogue actor in the world today than Vladimir Putin.
I'm saddened by this turn of events, but it will only strengthen the NATO alliance. Putin’s decision to go all in on invading Ukraine ends the possibility of dividing NATO/Europe. It’ll be harder to divide the US on this issue as well. There are plenty of trolls on social media, but Republican leadership is mostly standing with President Biden and against Putin’s aggression.
As for what to expect: it’s hard to imagine this war will last long, at least the early stages. The Ukrainian government will surely fall, likely flee, and end up in exile someplace outside of Ukraine's borders. President Putin has said that this will not be an occupation. Of course, President Putin has also said over the past weeks that there was no intention to invade. He lied then; he's lying now.
There is no purpose of diplomacy, at least at this point between the US, the Europeans, and Russia. Meanwhile, it's all about what can be done to help the Ukrainians defend themselves as best they can and what can be done to ensure that NATO allies feel like they will be strongly defended if there ever are going to be further attacks that reach them. It's one of the reasons why the US and Europe are going to be applying significant, maximum sanctions that can be applied and will be applied against the Russians today.
But partisan fighting will go on for a very long time. This genie is not going back into the bottle and we are seeing the beginnings of a second Cold War.
Russia offers negotiations with Ukraine…if they demilitarize (read: surrender).
After months of lying about invasion and as Russian troops prepare to siege Kiev.
This will end in regime change.
Prefer long-form analysis? Here are my thoughts on why a new Iranian nuclear deal still seems unlikely and why Macron appears destined for a victory that will secure his place as Europe's new leader.
TRUTHS, DAMNED TRUTHS, AND STATISTICS
Republican unfavorability views of:
Putin 81%
Biden 92%
Democrat unfavorability views of:
Putin 85%
Trump 87%
THE GZERO WORLD WE’RE JUST LIVING IN
领英推荐
GRAPHIC TRUTH
YOUR GZERO WORLD
The US and China are as wary of each other as they've ever been. But the Chinese think they are on the rise, while America is declining.
On this episode of GZERO World, I talk to billionaire Ray Dalio, head of the world's largest hedge fund, who thinks rising US debt, a widening wealth gap among Americans, and the meteoric rise of China all play into Beijing's plans to overtake the US as a global superpower.
For a longer, more in-depth version of my interview with Dalio, check out the GZERO World podcast.
YOUR QUICK TAKE
My thoughts on where we are in this war against Ukraine:
BECAUSE THE INTERNET
All commercial aircraft rerouting around Ukraine following Russia’s invasion.
Credit: Flightradar24
WHAT TO READ THIS WEEK
The Next Age of Uncertainty by Stephen Poloz
At a time when uncertainty is on the rise and so many of us are disoriented by unexpected crises like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic, Poloz’s The Next Age of Uncertainty argues that we can, in fact, manage risk and plan ahead much more effectively—whether we’re geopolitical analysts, corporate executives, or lay readers. Spotlighting five enduring trends—including population aging, rising inequality, and climate change—Poloz considers not only how their interactions will shape the future, but also how they can explain the past. While it doesn’t offer a crystal ball, this book can help each of us see through the fog of crisis a bit more clearly.
DEEP THOUGHTS
“They tried to bury us. They didn’t know we were seeds.” – Dinos Christianopoulos
Thanks for reading! Please subscribe for more analysis from GZERO Media.
Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media and foreign affairs columnist at TIME. He currently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and previously was a professor at New York University. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
Retired Oracle/Postgres Architect-DBA
3 年when did 'unofficial' become 'official'. it's looked pretty much the same since the get-go.
Experienced Payments IT Consultant | Payments Blogger | SWIFT, SEPA & ISO20022 | Dovetail, OPF, TPH, B@NCS | Writer |
3 年In the Hashtag you have called it Russia Ukraine conflict... Which I think is not fair.. It should be be Russian invasion instead....
Partner & Vice-President chez msc mobile
3 年I am beyond frustrated with the tepid response of our NATO and G7 leaders. I do not accept that there's nothing we can do without being in direct contact with the Russian army. It is a clear failure of our democratic institutions. Nothing short of a no-fly zone over Ukraine is acceptable.