What Actually Mattered This Week: Blinken-Lavrov Meeting, Biden's First Year in Office, Russia/Ukraine

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WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERED THIS WEEK

My thoughts on some of this week’s biggest news stories:

Secretary of State Blinken meets with Russian counterpart in bid to prevent Ukraine invasion

The Blinken-Lavrov meeting didn't yield any breakthroughs (as expected). There's still hope for a diplomatic solution, but that doesn't mean hostilities won't escalate in the meantime (they will).

Joe Biden says his administration has ‘outperformed’ in bruising first year

Hard to see a planet where people think Biden has outperformed expectations.

On the home front: bipartisan infrastructure was the major win. Otherwise, he was stymied on big efforts.

Foreign policy: most international relationships are trending better, with the Quad being the strongest, but that’s true of most allies. China is about the same. The Iran deal is still dead. Russia crisis…we’ll see. There’s still no trade policy, but we’re in a much better place on climate.

Russia could act against Ukraine ‘at any moment’, says US

The best way for Putin to revitalize NATO’s mission and strengthen the transatlantic alliance is a full invasion of Ukraine. He’s well aware.

But Putin also knows there’s no coordination among NATO allies on how to respond to a “limited” military incursion into Ukraine (border fighting, tanks into Donbas, expanded cyberattacks).

That’s a very different scenario from a full invasion, and the response from the US and NATO would differ as well.

TRUTHS, DAMNED TRUTHS, AND STATISTICS

US lagging behind all major developed economies in vaccination

-Morning Consult

THE GZERO WORLD WE’RE JUST LIVING IN

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GRAPHIC TRUTH

YOUR GZERO WORLD

Xi Jinping's zero-COVID approach faces its toughest test to date with omicron. Why? Because China lacks mRNA jabs, and so few Chinese people have gotten COVID that overall protection is very low. A wave of lockdowns could disrupt the world's second-largest economy — just a month out from the Beijing Winter Olympics.

That could spell disaster for Beijing, Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, tells me on this week’s GZERO World. If things get really bad, though, Huang believes China will pivot to living with the virus, especially as the cost of keeping zero COVID in the age of omicron becomes too high.

For a longer, more in-depth version of my interview with Huang, check out the GZERO World podcast.

WORLD IN 60 SECONDS

Will Boris Johnson resign?

Will US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Ukraine make any progress?

What do we know about Tonga's volcano eruption?

Find out in this week’s World in 60 Seconds!

Do you like what you’ve seen? Subscribe and stay informed.

BECAUSE THE INTERNET

Geopolitical photo of the week: Iran’s President Raisi praying in the Kremlin.

WHAT TO READ THIS WEEK

After the Prophet: The Epic Story of the Shia-Sunni Split in Islam by Lesley Hazleton

The book tells the “origin story” at the heart of the Shia-Sunni conflict by explaining the events that happened after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, who passed away without naming a direct successor to lead the Muslims. The book constructs a very engaging narrative and explains the complex history in detail, and how Shia-Sunni tensions played a role in the development of modern-day Islamic nations. It provides a different perspective to modern-day issues arising in the Middle East, I would recommend it for anyone interested in understanding how Islamic history shapes issues still prevalent in the region.

DEEP THOUGHTS

“To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” – Leonard Bernstein

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Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media and foreign affairs columnist at TIME. He currently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and previously was a professor at New York University. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.