What 12 Million Projected Transactions Really Means.
Colette Kemp
Founder @ SureStep Businesses Advisors I Helping retiring business owners sell to next-generation buyers keeping their businesses locally owned. Accredited Small Business Consultant? I Accredited Business Intermediary
Over the next 10–15 years, an estimated 12 million small businesses are expected to hit the market for sale. While exact figures for past transactions are scarce, historical trends give us a clear picture: only 20–30% of listed businesses actually sell. That raises a critical question, how many of these 12 million will successfully transition to new ownership?
Let’s take a moment to consider what’s changing and what’s staying the same.
Historical vs. Projected Small Business Sales
What Happened in the Past Decade? (2013–2023)
? Survival Rates vs. Sales: Of businesses founded in 2013, only 34.7% were still operating in 2023, but survival doesn’t guarantee a sale. Many simply closed when owners retired or faced financial struggles.
? Low Transaction Success Rate: Just 20–30% of businesses that go up for sale actually sell. Many fail due to unrealistic pricing, poor financial records, or lack of buyer demand.
? Delayed Exits: Baby boomers, a major segment of small business owners, started retiring but postponed selling due to economic uncertainty (e.g., post-2008 recovery, COVID-19 disruptions).
What’s Expected Over the Next 10–15 Years? (2025–2035)
? A Wave of Baby Boomer Exits: The majority of owners reaching 60+ will finally exit their businesses.
? Economic Stability Encouraging Sales: The market is more stable than the last decade, boosting buyer confidence. This is still TBD
? Private Equity and Consolidation: More small businesses will attract institutional buyers, increasing the odds of successful sales.
? The Reality Check: While 12 million businesses may go up for sale, only 2.4–3.6 million may actually sell based on past success rates.
Key Differences Between Past and Future Small Business Sales
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Factor
2013–2023 (Past Decade)
2025–2035 (Next Decade)
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Exit Planning
Many owners are unprepared, leading to unsellable businesses.
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More owners focusing on exit strategies and professional valuations.
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Economic Climate
Post-2008 recovery and pandemic disruptions created uncertainty.
AI adoption, e-commerce, and steady economic growth improving market conditions.
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Buyer Demand
Fewer institutional buyers; mostly individual buyers.
Increased interest from private equity and strategic buyers.
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Survival Rates
34.7% of businesses survived a decade.
Better tools (AI, automation) may improve long-term business viability.
Challenges That Could Impact Small Business Sales
Even with a higher volume of businesses entering the market, key challenges remain:
1. Inflation & Costs: Rising wages, materials, and overhead costs continue to impact profitability.
2. Labor Shortages: About 40% of small businesses struggle with hiring and retention.
3. Transfer Preferences: Historically, ~70% of businesses are passed down to family or employees rather than sold to third-party buyers.
Final Thoughts: What This Means for Business Owners
The 12 million businesses expected to hit the market over the next decade signal a massive shift. But the real challenge is ensuring these businesses are sellable. Owners who prepare properly, through valuation, strong financials, and clear exit strategies will be in the best position to capitalize on rising buyer interest.
If history is any indication, the difference between a listed business and a sold business will come down to planning, positioning, and realistic pricing.