The WGA Writers strike is gaining strength: here’s why everyone should care
The demands are on the table. The unions are unifying. And both consumers and brands are wondering, what’s the impact to me? In case you’re not keeping up with the news, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) – the unionized organization that provides scripted content – went on strike on May 2 due to the inability to strike a deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) when the contract ended on May 1. One of the primary sticking points is the amount of residuals paid to writers for content that airs as streaming video as well as the possible future use of generative AI.?
Today will be a pivotal day. On May 17, Screen Actors Guild and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) voted in support of entering negotiations in solidarity with WGA if needed (they are not part of the strike) but its members have agreed to join, and a decision could be made as early as noon Pacific time today (July 13). In layman’s terms, this would mean that both writers and actors would be on strike. The stakes are high: if this happens, Hollywood faces its first dual work stoppage in 63 years.?
What’s the current content impact? The AMPTP includes the industry’s largest content creators including Amazon/MGM, Apple, NBCUniversal/Peacock, Disney/ABC/Hulu/Fox, Max, Netflix, Paramount/CBS, Sony, and Warner Brothers (among others). SAG-AFTRA includes ~116K members and if they do go on strike then Hollywood (TV & in-theater movies) would essentially be shut down.?
You might have noticed a lack of new episodes of some of your favorite shows. Some programs/genres that are currently affected are:
Many of the programs above were in some phase of production when the strike started so it is possible that some new episodes will air before the strike is over. However, that is at the discretion of the networks and streamers if they want to air new episodes knowing that the remainder of the season may be incomplete. As the strike continues, more areas will be affected including daytime soaps and talk.
The important area that the strike does not impact is “reality” and unscripted content. The networks and streamers will continue to produce and air new content. Current and upcoming programs include:?
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The linear TV networks have ramped up their unscripted content currently in the pipeline and have announced summer and fall schedules made up almost exclusively of unscripted programming and repeats of scripted shows. The unscripted shows will have multiple episodes and extend for a longer time period than they have historically done. While the networks say that they support the striking writers and tout that their networks are the place to go for great (scripted) content, they are also putting nearly all of their resources into “reality” TV.?
What does this mean long-term? The strike will continue to impact the industry for months, particularly if SAG-AFTRA joins. When production resumes, scripted programs will start later than planned and with possibly fewer episodes (or the same number squeezed into a tighter time frame). There may be some planned new shows that will not be produced so that writers can focus on more proven programming.?
Linear TV will likely see a drop in prime viewership fairly quickly at the end of September when the fall season typically premiers. It is anticipated that streaming will not see an impact until later this year or early 2024 when the tentpole shows that would have been in production now will not be airing. Some streaming services (including Hulu, Peacock, and Paramount+) that re-air new broadcast network content will no longer have that available. Despite a lack of new content, streamers are in a much better position to retain viewers since they have a vast library of programming. It’s possible that viewership will grow in the short term if linear TV consumers shift to more streaming content.?
How does this impact advertisers? TBC does not recommend making changes to any linear or OTT that have been placed to run through the end of Q3. Any buys placed for Q4 and beyond should be approached strategically, particularly as it relates to broadcast. As the strike continues, broadcast networks will likely find themselves in a ratings decline due to the lack of scripted shows in multiple dayparts and genres starting in late September.?
So, should you pause paid media? We do not recommend walking away from broadcast but working closely with the vendors to develop schedules that will take advantage of continually new programming such as news and sports combined with unscripted content while maintaining efficient pricing. Impressions delivery should be monitored with the networks providing additional spots to address any audience shortfall. Although OTT is not expected to be impacted as much, vendors should be closely tracked to ensure that impressions are being delivered and that KPIs are maintained. It’s possible that a lack of new prime and premium programming could result in a change in performance, particularly towards the end of the year. It is also possible that some advertisers will shift linear dollars to streaming, resulting in higher CPMs or a lack of impressions fulfillment.
What happens next? As the Writer’s Guild strike has already stopped production of most movies and scripted TV shows, the addition of an actors’ strike could extend the shutdown for months — possibly even to the end of the year. In the long run, we believe the impact of what advertisers do with their spending power is going to be a factor in whenever and however this all comes to an end.