We've Played Two: Reactions, Strategies, and Adjustments for the Celtics and Warriors
Game 3's are crucial in NBA Finals, with the winner going on to take the series 82% of the time. (NBC Sports))

We've Played Two: Reactions, Strategies, and Adjustments for the Celtics and Warriors

Ladies and gentlemen…we have ourselves a series!

The NBA Finals are tied through two games, with both the Warriors and Celtics picking up a win. In two contests that were determined by defense, ball control, and coaching adjustments, the squads have shown they are both capable of taking home the championship.

During game one, it was clear to see that Boston was caught off guard. As many noted, Golden State is a completely different team than the others they had played in these playoffs. Their joyful, free-flowing offense could not be further from Miami’s and Milwaukee’s football-style tactics. Furthermore, their shooting and playmaking skills are far beyond Boston’s previous opponents. This was shown early as Steph Curry lit them up for six threes in the first quarter alone (a new Finals record):

Look at how deep Robert Williams is on some of these ball screens. It’s hilarious to watch (and incredibly frustrating if you’re a Celtics fan).

Boston eventually realized that they weren’t playing against one-legged Kyle Lowry anymore and shifted their approach, resulting in Steph making just one more three the rest of the game.

It’s simple, easy mistakes like these that are hurting Boston, and not just on the defensive end. In Game 2, they had 18 turnovers, including 15 live-ball ones which are far more devastating, leading to 33 points for Golden State. Although the Warriors were active on defense, this is unacceptable for a team with championship aspirations, especially considering point guard Marcus Smart and superstar Jayson Tatum combined for half of the 18. They must be far more disciplined going forward.

The most infuriating part is that Boston has shown they are capable of playing exceptional basketball, as displayed in their fourth quarter run in game one:

The team came out and played with poise and focus, hunting the appropriate matchups, and never settling for the first shot. When they started scoring more, this allowed their outstanding half-court defense to be set and ready for Golden State’s counterpunches, which never really came. Jaylen Brown, in particular, was sensational: making contested jumpers when needed, slashing through the lane, setting up Robert Williams for lobs, and kicking out to open shooters. Brown played tremendously and was a huge reason for Boston’s comeback.

In game two, he came out firing early as well, scoring nine points in the first two and a half minutes. Golden State desperately needed an answer for him, as Klay Thompson didn’t look like his regular self. Luckily, they have perhaps the best defensive player alive in Draymond Green, chomping at the bit for this matchup. This strategy worked, for the most part, as Brown finished game two with just 17 points on 5/17 shooting.

Another issue that needs to be addressed for Boston is the secondary scoring, aside from Tatum. If Green continues to limit Brown’s output, then someone else will need to step up. Al Horford was fantastic in game one but finished with just two points in game two. On a couple of sequences, he showed his age as Curry was able to handle him one on one in the post.

Smart and Robert Williams (who looks injured and had a couple of bad falls), weren’t much help either. The Celtics have to hope that the playoff tradition of role players excelling in home games continues, as they return home in games 3 and 4.

If Boston wakes up and realizes that they are perhaps the most talented team in the league, Golden State will be in trouble. They have the potential to play smothering defense, and we really have seen it yet. The fresh Finals faces had the slightest deer-in-headlights look, and hopefully, the awe factor wears off in their own gym.

Looking at Golden State, it'll be interesting to see if head coach Steve Kerr continues with the Draymond on Brown matchup. Green is the Warriors’ best rim defender, especially when they play smaller lineups with him playing center. When he’s guarding Brown on the perimeter, away from the basket, Golden State is quite vulnerable to penetration from other areas. This situation will be a give-and-take all series long and is worth monitoring. ???????

Focusing on the Warriors’ offense, and unsurprisingly, the key has been Steph Curry. When the Warriors broke it wide open in the third quarter of game two, it was Curry that led the charge. He took advantage of Boston’s defensive lapses by splashing threes from all over the court, including absolutely embarrassing Al Horford on one play:

While Boston loves to use a “switch-happy” defensive strategy when Steph is playing like that it simply isn’t possible. Few bigs can hang with him on the perimeter, and the Celtics’ crew hasn’t proved that they can.

This opens up things for Golden State – now that Boston can’t switch, they’re forced to send defenders over the top and try and trap, allowing Green and Kevon Looney to play 4 on 3, almost always resulting in a good shot.

The Warriors have also been creative in their pick-and-roll attack, especially during their 19-2 run in the third quarter that broke open the game. Let’s break down this part of the game in detail:

On one play, Green basically screens two people at once to get Steph an open shot. It’s unclear if this was a set play or if the Warriors intended to run it like this, but regardless, it worked.

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Offensive gravity is a term used by many basketball nerds, and Curry has perhaps the strongest pull in the league. Below is a fitting example of this, as Grant Williams for some reason decided to leave Andrew Wiggins wide open on the wing and sprint at Curry. This play ended up with a wide-open corner three (for reference, I saved this picture as "Williams WTF).

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The next time down, Otto Porter set an excellent transition screen on the sideline for Steph, catching Theis off guard and giving him a great look.

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Finally, Jordan Poole sprints into a ball screen here, not giving the Celtics enough time to properly adjust and getting the switch onto Theis, whom he tortures (poor Theis, this just might not be the series for him).

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This was all before Poole an insane buzzer-beater from just inside half to end the quarter, setting the Chase Center on fire and all but sealing the game for Golden State. Poole coming alive late was a welcomed sign, as in the first six quarters of the Finals he looked borderline unplayable.

Kerr and the Warriors have been famously reluctant to use repetitive Curry high screens, out of a fear of becoming predictable and limiting their movement. This has always been a luxury for them, as they would usually have several offensive weapons on the floor at any given time.

One of those weapons was usually Klay Thompson. While it’s an incredibly inspiring story and fantastic to see him out there, he has been quite ineffective thus far, shooting a brutal 10-33 through the two games. Kerr even tried to leave him in during the blowout so he could find his legs.

?If Klay continues to struggle and Poole remains up and down, they begin to run out of options. Employing the “Steph Screen Spam” (patent pending) strategy might be their best bet moving forward.

Over the next two games, some things to look for are:

-???????If Draymond continues to guard Brown in smaller lineups and how Golden State’s rim protection/rebounding is affected

-???????Who on the Celtics can step up to assist Tatum with the offensive burden, especially if the Warriors stay with their swarming defense

-???????If Boston can be more poised and focused on both sides of the ball, be patient on offense, and stay disciplined in their defensive coverages

-???????What version of Klay Thompson do we get, the Dallas game 5 version that torched them for 32 points and 8 threes, or the version we’ve gotten for the first two games

-???????If Jordan Poole can be more consistent, or if the Celtics continue to limit his production

-???????What crunch-time lineup does Kerr decide to roll with, whether it be offensively minded with Poole and Thompson, or focus on defense with Otto Porter and Gray Payton II

-???????And perhaps most importantly: between these two turnover-prone teams, which one wins the possession battle and controls the ball

All these factors and more will be crucial in determining what happens in Boston. With both teams employing some of the smartest basketball minds in the game, I’m sure there will be even more adjustments come game 3. After certain series were a little lackluster with their lopsided scores, and this one has been fairly similar, I’m glad basketball fans have been treated to a back-and-forth Final so far.

Enjoy the games!

P.S. As always, I hope Boston loses. ??

Ben Paton

Email & SMS Coordinator - Conservative Party of Canada

2 年

Johnny Analytics not only pulling the curtains on NBA strategy, but also providing excellent insight into strategies that teams can implement. Business minded athlete. Interesting read John Alex!

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