We've Got 6 Years...
My job as a macro analyst and entrepreneur is to live in the future and assess how the world might look, and a probabilistic path to get there.
In the next 6 years, I believe we will see Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) models accelerating in power and collapsing in costs. We will hit a golden age of technology productivity, where infinite knowledge workers (AIs…!) enter the economy.
What does an economy even look like in that world? What is GDP?
What if someone trains AGI on global markets? They theoretically will capture ALL the value.
What if everyone begins using AGI models to build businesses? The velocity of business formation — and destruction — will be unprecedented. So long VC investing, farewell PE investing.
How do “normal” businesses survive in this world? They can’t.
It is all totally f*cked.
This is what I was talking about on the Real Vision Daily Briefing yesterday, along with David Mattin and Imran Lakha, which you can watch right here:
Cheery viewing for a Friday, eh?
Regardless of cheer factor, I hope you find it valuable.
And if you want to go deeper with us, The Exponentialist (which is me, David, Imran, and Julien) is offering a trial for the first time — only available through May 10.
The rocket ship has a life raft… you can jump in here.
Have a great weekend.
Raoul
Scientist, developer, educator
5 个月I am on board with the main idea. But Altman had said in no uncertain terms that "augmentation" (what is known as "complimentarity") will come first, before AGI. We need to see an abundance of cimplimentarity before we can set a scope on AGI. I promise, I will be working on this.
Culinary Art Trainer
6 个月$1 trial guys dammit, get in!
Managing Director at GENUS BA LTD
6 个月Top draw, otherwise Thought-provoking…!
PM | AI Data Science & Quantitative
6 个月Shockley diode equation is also exponential, but it’s important to remember that physical limits like junction rupture can occur at high currents or voltages. Looking forward to learn more about the exponentialists.
Scientist, developer, educator
6 个月These are exponential technologies. And when we are wrong on our projections here, we can seriously wrong.