Wet weather, Food for thought
The first article "Wet. Wet, Wet " was on Flooding in early January. The focus there was on the potential impact on natural capital?
This one touches on the impact on the food chain…?
It has remained extremely wet since the year end, and effectively seems to have been raining since the middle of June 2023. This has now brought out some broader considerations in addition to the high river levels which were in focus last time. Last time we also looked at the potential impact on natural capital
The Impact now more widespread on the food chain with significant impact on farming.?
Livestock .. lambing .. a major local topic for discussion?
Arable … lots of issues with flooded land, lack of planting.?
It also has brought increased prominence on issues such as Sewage Outflows ( a topic for another day,
A reminder of the "Changing Water Balance "which had a focus on 2023, but 2024 has started in a similar vein .?
Locally we can look at the Chesters Rainfall data though that understates the March figure as the gauge wasn’t operational?for a key part of the month. looking through the Scottish Data one gets the picture.
The Changing Water Balance, An excellent recent summary from The James Hutton Institute highlighting potential impact of climate changes north of the border has reappeared. Timely as it turns out. This brings a longer term perspective on the potential issues and the requirement for a plan. Such planning tends to be triggered by shorter term surges in wet weather. The last six months of 2023 were the wettest in the UK since 1890, and the deluges continued. The Executive Summary highlights the potential changes by month. 2023 was named by the met office as the 6th wettest since its records began in 1936
The projections for wetter weather by month are highlighted in the summary article link below.
Where is the help coming from for those impacted, and another obvious question is whether it is enough? One suspects more needs to be done, and more thought put into it.
There would appear to be both short and longer term considerations?
The potential impact on the food chain is becoming more perceptible by the day?
Locally Upland Livestock Farming?(Sheep) is the main focus and it has been a pretty bad year
Checking with my neighbour, and it’s his 50th year, the conditions have not been good ,with losses. The plusses have been that there has been very little snow, and there is grass growing (which means less feed requirement). Cited 2013 as a particularly difficult one. Clear concern though at the persistent cold and wet weather.?
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Not all animals suffer to the same extent and some do like mud.. ?(Pig producers have faced their own challenges and also gained support from the value chain)
Arable ..Security of Supply.. Is the crunch coming ?!
The persistent continuing wet weather is also playing havoc with planting for a range of crops, and that is raising considerable concerns over the impacts later this year. The extra Brexit checks that have finally been brought in might bring some added constraints too.?
Should this weather pattern become “more normal” then there is a clear need to adapt current procedures. This might bring in more Vertical Farming Intelligent Growth Solutions (IGS) for example to improve security of supply. Will the major ?crop users come in to help the growers financially in what is likely to be a tough year in 2024. ?
In Scotland Cereal growers would seem to be days or weeks behind, whilst in England some are reporting being more than a month behind.?
Milling wheat imports were up 22% compared with February 23?
Rishi Sunak and Ministers have pledged to maintain the proportion of homegrown food consumed in the UK to around 60%?
The extra Brexit checks that have finally been brought in might bring some added constraints too.?
Europe has also seen some dire weather which may constrain supplies to the UK as well.?
What Price Food? …. And how might that influence Inflation through the summer months..?
Time to revisit the James Hutton Institute …?
Some things haven't changed since the previous article, with damge to local infrastructure also a sign of the adverse weather,
Philip Kerr
Director
WesterHayes Impact Advisory