Western Break

Australia’s west, finally, welcomes a winter rain break.?

AUSTRALIA

The west looks better – the south though is still waiting.?

WORLD

Russia’s drying trend continues to diminish wheat yield prospects.?

Brazil’s safrinha corn crops are experiencing rising stress.?

A soggy central Europe continues to prolong worries about crop quality.?

#agriculture #agribusiness #Commodity #commodities #corn #soybeans #wheat

AUSTRALIA:? Western Break

Australia’s western winter crop regions are, finally, likely to get substantial rain this week.?

• And parts of that region also got more rain than anticipated last week.?
• So almost all Western Australia’s crop regions are now off ‘watch’.?
• Only the crop regions deepest inland remain on watch…?
• …and with a little luck they too might soon go ‘green’.?

Australia’s southern crop regions are still awaiting the break.?

• Those regions remain on watch.?
• Weather forecasters expect these regions to get a little rain this week.?
• The rain amounts though are well short of what would kick-start a crop.?

Eastern crop regions continue to have much better moisture - mostly.?

• South Queensland and North New South Wales could do with some rain soon.?

The rain in the west will exert downward pressure on WA’s basis.? And perhaps this rain event will begin the normal seasonal decline in new crop prices.? Less worry about WA likely has, and will, remove an element of support for global prices too.?

WORLD: Russia risk ramp up continues

Southern summer crops

Brazil’s crops still face two issues.

First, Brazil’s safrinha corn in Mato Grosso remains on a path to rising crop stress.?

• Weather forecasters expect little rain in the ‘watch’ regions for another week or so.
• And forecasters also expect high or worse temperatures.?
• The watch region has no topsoil moisture and subsoil moisture is already limited.?
• So, crop stress across the region will rise this week.?
• Crop stress is likely getting close to the point where yields will start to decline.?

Rio Grande du Sol will benefit from the warm, dry weather.?

• That context will allow the ground to dry further.?
• Much of the state remains saturated, precluding field work.
• Until harvesting begins soybean crop losses and quality declines remain an unknown.?

Argentina’s summer crop regions likely see good harvesting weather this week.?

Specific risks to Brazil’s safrinha corn crops will notch up this week.? The potential risk has been somewhat supportive for corn prices. ?The yield threat looks likely to rise this week and that would offer more price support.? The support though can only lift prices so far given comfortable feed grain supply.? The potential soybean losses in Rio Grande du Sol remain on the market’s radar.? The likely losses though are not getting any larger.? So, there’s no news in that event now, only in the scale of its impact.? Until we know that scale? there’ll be little price impact.?

Northern winter crops

Russia’s south and Ukraine’s east likely continued on their faster path to dry soils.?

• The region remains at ‘alert’.?
• Weather forecasters expect little rain in the ‘watch’ region for the next week or so.?
• Forecasters also expect high temperatures and strong winds this week.
• Both will speed evaporation through the region.
• Kalmykia, near Kazakhstan’s western border, is already.?
• The rest though will see soil moisture dwindle to marginal levels.
• The dryness is badly timed for the crops in question.?
• Analysts are becoming more likely to make larger cuts to crop forecasts.?

Some US white winter wheat regions are back on ‘watch’.?

• Central Washington State experienced unexpectedly high temperatures last.?
• The result was that scratchy soil moisture dropped rapidly.?
• Weather forecasters expect little rain this week.?
• So, this region adds a modest scale crop worry back to The Watchlist.?

We kept the south-west of the United States’ hard red winter wheat region at ‘alert’ despite some useful rain last week.?

• The main reason is that for some dryland crops the rain was too little, too late.
• Weather forecasters expect rain in the broader HRW region this week.?
• Whether that proves to be any help in the alert regions is not clear.?
• The rain might though prevent larger yield declines.?

We’ve trimmed the ‘watch’ on Europe’s wettest winter crop regions.?

• Weather forecasters expect more rain through central Europe this week.?
• Winter crops in those regions remain at risk of some yield loss and quality decline.?
• The scale of loss/decline is probably going to be modest but might scale up somewhat if the rain does not subside.?
• We have though trimmed France’s western provinces from the watch region.
• These provinces are likely to see less rain this week.
• The issue continues to have the market’s attention.?

Worsening dryness in southern Russia and eastern Ukraine will continue to draw the wheat market’s attention.? Further cuts to winter wheat crop yields are increasingly likely.? The supporting cast of smaller wheat worries though is now smaller with rain in Australia’s west.?

Northern summer crops

United States’ summer crop regions will see more in the week ahead.?

• The rain will likely delay planting in a few places.?
• The scale of the delays though is unlikely to worry markets much.?

Central Europe’s summer crop planting continues to face potential delays.?

• Weather forecasters expect another week of rain.
• The rain will likely slow planting somewhat.?
• The delays though still do not yet merit a summer-crop ‘watch’ for now.?

Northern summer crops have few weather issues to worry about for now.? They are thus having little impact on feed and oilseed prices for now.?

Southern winter crops?

Brazil’s winter wheat planting remains delayed by soggy fields.?

• The planting ‘window’ runs until the end of June so time remains.?
• The issue is how quickly growers can begin fieldwork again.?
• The major growing regions are in the state’s west and north-west.?
• Fortunately, those regions are among those where drying has made the most progress.?
• So, allowing for growers’ usually strong determination, the scale of missed planting may well be modest.?

Argentina’s growers will continue planting wheat in soils with good starting moisture.?