The West will suffer more of Cov-19 than the East.

I have been following the outbreak since it’s discovery in December. I lived in China, traveled myself to Wuhan a decade ago and have a very close friend in the area.

So the story is very personal to me, even if I know that the China I knew 10 years ago is nothing like I have known.

I though this epidemic could stay in China like the previous SARS. For worse we would have only a few cases in the West, as our governments would have been careful.

But I was wrong.

In reality this crisis we are living right now will be a defining moment. One where our Western democracies shown how much they are inefficient, and disconnected from the world.

In time of crisis, Asian countries have proven their “superiority” to the Western world. But the story is bigger than a health crisis.

The real story is about Culture. And as a result how Asian countries have a better Operating system than the West.

Asian countries I am talking about (China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong-Kong, South-Korea, Japan)

Note: I am writing this in end of March. Wuhan is still not out of quarantine. We are still yet to see if the re-opening of the rest of China is going to go without trouble, or add oil to the fire.

Culture eats strategy for breakfast. Everytime.

You may have heard this catch phrase, but the importance of it is enormous.

Culture define what is acceptable to do, not to do, and a very good predictors of future actions of group of people. This is exactly the situation where we are at the moment.

As a result of culture, we use our brains in very different ways.

What hold true for you in West, may be false in the East and vice versa. If you have worked with people from different cultures you know what I am talking about.

This is where culture has a big impact on the actual crisis.Our Western world is very individualistic.

The well being of the individual is a priority.

At the other end of the spectrum, the East worry about the well being of the group. (Or to put it in China’s terms, the harmony between all members of society)

These brilliant illustrations by Yang Liu, summarise better the discrepancy in perception between us.

Lifestyle

Ego

As a result this has three main consequences:

• Lack of discipline from citizens
• Internal divisions
• Weak political decisions

Each one of these feed the other. It creates a loop that unfortunately will make this pandemic worse.

1. Lack of discipline from Citizens

This is the first point of our story and the most worrisome.

Individualistic thinking threaten us all. Our own ignorance will be the most difficult habit to change. From one day to the next people were required to shift their frame of thinking. To make this happen we are going to have a hard time.

When quarantine was declared, the ones who could escape it have escaped in mass to their family or 2nd houses on the countryside.

This have been happening everywhere. Milan, Madrid, Paris, NY and is probably happening right now in London.

This reaction is the most normal thing. Our society is wired to seek maximal comfort, even more with with loved ones.

West = Our vision of group is fragmented. East, we are all as a unity.

The most shocking thing for me is that our governments have been unable to foresee this exodus. Good faith in time of crisis is a proof of amateurism.

Like the problem of hoarding at supermarkets. Governments ask their people to make the right choices, but this is doomed to fail. Both our brain and culture are telling people contradictory thing.

What also aggravate our individualistic flaw is our relationship with authority. We have a mostly flat relationship with authority.

Meaning that we accept it to some extent. But if we need to make sacrifices people start to second guess.

In Asia, when authority declares something, people are quick to follow it (legal measure reinforce the message as well.) This reinforced the governments actions. Curves in Asian countries have managed to slow down when the ones in EU are getting started.

Last, this notion of sacrifice on your everyday life is very hard to be accepted. Most western population forgot what it meant.

Following rules is not seen by the population as a critical thing. Most of people are looking to “break the rule” for it’s own personal comfort.

As a result you end up with people not staying where they should be, being too close to others. Increasing the risk of transmission.

My girlfriend, who is locked in Paris reports that people don’t respect security distances . Similar scenes are happening all across Europe, or here in the Netherlands where I am at the moment.

Leaving to an individualistic society the duty to auto-regulate itself is a folly from our governments.

As Ron Klain explained in this brilliant podcast from Vox, the virus is more patient than we do. (Listen to it)

Let’s be honest.

This situation is a product of own success as a society of these last 75 years.

As Westerners we are so lucky.

We have known the most peaceful and abundant period of History ever recorded. As a result our generation has never been through such “War times”.

Chancellor Angela Merkel put it, this our biggest challenge since WW2.

I would argue that it is even bigger. With a traditional war you have clear enemies. For this one, our senses are useless and we are our worst enemy.

Nobody remembers anymore what a world crisis feels like.

The fews who do, are locked down and/or digital illiterates for the rest of the population. Not able to share and educate people who have never been through dire times.

This is where the history of Asia is actually helping it.

Asia, and most in this case China only discovered a level of unprecedented growth in the last 20 years. As a result their population knows what are tough times, and what making sacrifices means.

Note: population on the Eastern part of Europe is I believe better prepared for these hard times. Because of the Soviet occupation, the population would also understand what is at stakes.

2. Internal divisions

This lack of discipline creates a dangerous tendency to second guess the actions of the government. It defuses it’s message to the population, creating confusion and more tensions.

War history can teach us that during “war times” countries need to be aligned between their objectives and the behaviour of their people.

WW1 recruitment PR tactic that stayed famous.Communication is a key crisis tool. PR was born in such conditions.

During World War 1, a huge campaign was made to convince Americans in going to war when most did not want to.

The risk of a bored population, is that while they stand still, they will start to ask questions. Looking for scapegoats for answers.

Why are we in this situation?

One example coming from France. The government has been already processed by some group for their fault in preparing with the pandemic.

This is again, a predictable behaviour (and maybe very French), but is it really what matters the most now?

In this epidemic timing is everything. Wasting energy to find who is at fault is the worst thing to do. It’s like attacking our leaders if they had lost a military battle during WW2.

We lost the first battle, not the war.

Finding solutions to this war is the key, and we already have good examples.

3. Weak political decisions.

Last, because of culture our generation of politics are prone to dangerous biases affecting us all.

(Note: I want to clarify that I am sure our public servants are giving 100% of what they have. Nobody can ever be prepared with a crisis of this significance.)

Watching what is happening, one can not wonder but identify 4 major flaws in western governments approach.

Evident lack of planning

In our internet world this is very surprising.

Especially when you consider the example of three other Asians countries that have mitigated the effect of the Cov-19.

If we were in the 19th century when information traveled slowly, ignorance could be forgiven. Yet, in a world where information travel immediately from one point to another, there is something not right.

Our governments had 3 Asian countries as examples:

• Singapore that was pro-active about it. It shut down it’s borders the minutes it saw what was happening in China, communicated transparently with it’s population on where cases were distributed and enforced strict guidelines.
• China. Tried to downplay the crisis but understood quickly it’s mistake and took decisive and courageous measures with it’s lockdown bazooka.
• South-Korea, only true democratic power of the three . Closer to us in term of decision making they mixed with success (for now) a planned approach. Enacting strict quarantine rules, enforced via technology warning citizens of any cases around them. It may feel a little psychotic, but this very local approach have reinforced the feeling for people to follow strict quarantine, with the fear that the virus is close to you. One could debate of the stress this causes, but in times of war, is mental health the most pressing need one could ask?

Maintaining the economy at all cost.

Our governments between their mission to serve the public, and maintain the economy have opened a pandora box.

Half baked measures compromising on the security aspects of the population and sending mixed signals about what must be done.

The fear of politicians might be of being accused after the crisis that they went too far and threatened democracy.

However, no need to become a dictatorship to be able to take decisive measures during war time (see South Korea). Unfortunately, it seems that our leaders are still disillusioned about the fact this pandemic can be solved fast. That our society won’t need to redirect all it’s resources to reorganise itself.

Trusting the population and companies to do the right thing.

Well, you see where I am going right?

In their blindness and haste governments are trusting people to do the right decisions, in a situation of crisis.

This is a mirage. Since only a few infected people can restart a cluster, it is a bad strategy that some are finally realising.

Humans are not machines, and this kind of decisions shows a profound lack of Social sciences within the government. How can people switch from ME to WE when few of them have been doing during all their life?

Again, I am not for dictatorship.

But let’s be honest. In situation of crisis people need to be told what is best for the group, and go with it. That’s the advantage of China, Singapore, etc, where the local culture help government guidelines to be followed.

Incoherent communication

The situation escalated quickly since the 12th of March and now everyday brings it’s batch of surprises. Some governments have done better communicating to their population than others, true.

Yet, before less than 10 days ago countries had been reassuring people of their supposed control over the situation, which was a lie. (And governments have a tendency to lie every time in time of crisis)

It also reminds us of the time of Tchernobyl. When governments lied about the fact that the cloud will not reach certain countries.

Conclusion

Recently I heard a brilliant talk mentioning that the word crisis in Chinese had a double meaning.

Crisis is both danger and opportunity at the same time.

As the world is entering it’s biggest challenge since World War 2, it is understandable to recognise that the World order is going to be shaken by what is happening.

On one side the Chinese communist party already pushing it’s agenda across the world. (We need to do everything to not buy it.)

On the other side, this crisis show us the way to improve our democracies.

How?

By recognising that this crisis is an opportunity in improving our decaying political system. An opportunity to challenge what our society holds true and acceptable.

We have seen that our governments are still able to take bold moves.

• Saving the economy
• Having a “global” cooperation (still WIP)
• Requisitioning hotels to turn them into shelters for homeless people.

The question that will be in everybody lips when the crisis finish will be:

Why are we not taking actions for other important topics?

Climate change, Poverty, Health care for all and many others.

But this is only one part of the puzzle. The other half will be solved by you and me. Everyday citizens.

Our political system is the reflexion of what we expect from it.

The truth is that we need fresh blood and thinking in our democracies, on any levels. National and local.

Me the first, we need to be expecting more of our officials, and not be afraid in being more engaged toward political action.

Our collective inaction as citizens will have bad consequences for our democracies, thus us.

This disease showed us the reality that we are all connected.

Even very small actions, like going outside, meeting people can have unintended consequences.

The “butterfly effect” is real, and we now have seen what it looks like at scale.

• What if such butterfly effect was happening a scale for positive change?
• Where our collective small actions would follow such exponential trend?
• What would it take for this to happen?

Today culture is our burden but also our salvation tomorrow.

Thanks for reading.

I welcome your thoughts, critics and comments for improvement. I am a designer, writing from Amsterdam. You can find me online here.

You can finds my writings on China here + here and about Technology here.

Stay safe.