West Must Brace for Fallout of Insurrection in Russia
Wagner’s Insurrection Ends With an Uncertain Agreement
In the end, Putin demonstrated that he’s still in control of Russia.
By?Allison Fedirka ?-
June 24, 2023
Open as PDF One of the more important battles of the Ukraine war has been taking place within the Russian government itself. Reports over the past several months paint a picture of tension among the Kremlin, the military, private mercenaries and oligarchs, even if most of their differences were kept out of the public eye. That changed on June 23, when the Wagner Group started its insurrection in southern Russia, clearly demonstrating that it disagreed with President Vladimir Putin and that it was ready to defy the Defense Ministry. This raised questions about whether the insurrection could upend the government. It didn’t.
Initially, Wagner took control of Rostov-on-Don. Armored vehicles along with detachments of Wagner cordoned off the headquarters of the Southern Military District, the head office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the local Federal Security Service building, one of the police departments and more. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin conditioned his release of the city on Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov meeting him at the headquarters of the Southern Military District. A contingent of Wagner forces also advanced north from Rostov-on-Don, past Voronezh and toward Moscow. Western media, in contrast to Russian outlets, reported that Wagner had taken control of all military facilities in Voronezh.
The Kremlin’s response came quickly. First, it tried to deplete the ranks of the Wagner fighters, appealing to those involved in the Rostov-on-Don operation to stop and resume contact with Russian officials as quickly as possible. The Defense Ministry also announced that it was aiding Wagner fighters who ask for the safe return to their bases. Reports suggest some took the government up on the offer, or returned to their places of deployment after being called up by the ministry.
In response to the threat to Moscow, the Kremlin expanded the coverage area of its special anti-terrorist operation to include the capital city, its surrounding regions and Voronezh. It also canceled large public events and removed Wagner advertisements. In St. Petersburg, government security forces cordoned off Wagner’s building on Zolotaya Street. The government closed part of the M-4 highway in the Voronezh region. Most notably, Russian military aircraft reportedly engaged the Wagner forces along the highway.
Meanwhile, Putin tried to consolidate public support and show strength. In a morning address, he called Wagner’s actions treasonous and warned that participants in the rebellion would suffer severe punishment. He also called friendly governments in the region –?Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey – to try to shore up support.
Evidently, the conversation between Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was extremely fruitful. Lukashenko mediated talks between Putin and Prigozhin that resulted in an agreement whose details remain a mystery – except that Prigozhin announced that Wagner would stop its advance toward Moscow, return to its bases and try to further de-escalate.
Whether or not the situation is resolved, the future of Russia’s armed forces and Wagner remains uncertain. Wagner played a key role in Russia’s strategy in Ukraine and repeatedly proved to be among Russia’s most effective fighting forces. It is unclear whether Wagner will challenge Putin again in the future, or whether there will be changes in the Russian military leadership. Also unclear is what effect the insurrection and agreement might have on Wagner and Russian troops in Ukraine.
A final possibility is that we have just witnessed a classic Russian “maskirovka,” basically theater to distract from the fighting in Ukraine. Ultimately, no definitive casualties were reported, and a negotiated settlement was reached. It took some wind out of Wagner’s sails, improved Lukashenko’s image and, in the end, demonstrated that Putin remains in control of Russia.
West Must Brace for Fallout of Insurrection in Russia, Analysts Say
A former White House adviser on Russia said that Wagner’s decision to turn its troops on Moscow was the result of the Kremlin’s military failures and the private army’s exasperation with its troops becoming cannon fodder.
Fiona Hill said Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was “now telling the truth about the military failure and the official pretext for the invasion.”
The West should be putting together an international task force for a diplomatic surge to deal with an extremely dangerous situation unfolding in the world’s leading nuclear powers, said Hill, who is chancellor-designate of Durham University in the U.K.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, she said, “has lost the plot.”
“He used Prigozhin to scare the elites that there is someone worse that could take power if they are not kept in check—and that is exactly what could be happening now,” she said.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once head of the now-defunct Yukos oil company and one of Putin’s fiercest critics, said that in his estimate Prigozhin needs only to survive for around three days for Russian generals to start defecting.
Khodorkovsky, who served a 10-year prison term for financial crimes and lives in exile in London, said that even if the rebellion is crushed Putin’s regime will be irreparably weakened.
“Ukrainians and the West must make it clear that no one is encroaching on Russia's internationally recognized borders, but demand that Russia must withdraw troops from Ukraine,” Khodorkovsky said.
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CEPA. Center for European Policy Analysis
The Beginning of the End of Russia’s War on Ukraine
By?Kurt Volker - June 24, 2023
With Russian forces fighting each other – no matter what Yevgeny Prigozhin says about continuing the war – it will be clear to Russian fighters in Ukraine there is no point risking their lives for a losing cause.
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Much is unclear in Russia since the June 23 Wagner Group?mutiny ?against the military command began. But some things have become much clearer.
For months, it has been evident that Vladimir Putin had staked out a position that he was unable to achieve: conquering all of Ukraine and changing its government, or at least seizing all of the four additional provinces he had claimed to annex. Having staked his legacy on rebuilding the Russian Empire, he had nowhere else to go when his scheme failed.
Pursuing that failing course has meant?higher ?and higher?costs ?for the Russian forces involved. We have seen the elevation of the Wagner Group private militia, the recruitment of convicts as soldiers, the general conscription that prompted over a million to flee Russia, the ammunition shortages, the attacks by pro-Ukrainian Russian groups in Belgorod oblast, the public arguments between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense, the beginnings of direct criticism of Putin in social media, television, and the Duma, and the massive casualties (now possibly?exceeding ?360,000 dead and wounded) and failures of the Russian military on the ground.
It has been clear for months that this is unsustainable and yet no one could have predicted what element of the system would snap. Now we know.
With Russia’s military high command demanding on June 10 that Wagner soldiers register as regular military forces and submit to its orders, Prigozhin saw it as a?direct threat ?to his men and himself. When they failed to comply, Wagner says its forces came under attack on June 23 from Russian units in Ukraine.??
This was the trigger for Prigozhin to execute a well-prepared plan to strike directly at Russia itself — probably with the help of insiders in the military in the provincial cities of Rostov and Voronezh, which his forces now appear to control.?
It is still far too early to know how this will play out inside Russia. The general assumption will be that the Russian state is stronger than Prigozhin and his (supposed) 25,000 troops, and that the state will crush the rebellion and prevail. But the Russian people will stay on the sidelines, and it’s possible Russian troops share Prigozhin’s assessment that they were simply being led to the slaughter, and choose to join him.
Regardless, it seems this is indeed the beginning of the end of the war against Ukraine – at least this phase of it. Russian soldiers will quickly assess it is not worth dying in Ukraine when the war has already been lost, and their homeland is now at war with itself. There’s little glory or purpose to be had by sitting and dying in the trenches of a crumbling imperial quest.
Moreover, Prigozhin has already stated on?June 23 ?publicly the terrible truths behind Putin’s bloody quest: that the invasion of Ukraine was a mistake — that there were no Nazis in Ukraine; that the war is weakening Russia; that the casualties have been horrendous; that Ukraine has retaken more territory than the regime admits; that everybody lies to Putin rather than be the bearer of uncomfortable truths; and that Putin himself is delusional. These will all ring true with Russian soldiers on the front line, and they point to Russia pulling back and ending its aggression – at least temporarily in order to rebuild.??
Ukraine must take advantage of this chaos in Russia to press its advantage on the front lines. The West should long ago have provided longer-range artillery shells, cluster munitions, F-16s, and other aircraft. But even without those tools, Ukraine must seize the moment and press forward.
The West, too, must seize the moment. No matter how things settle inside Russia, and no matter if Russia withdraws and temporarily stops its aggression, and no matter if it is under Putin or Prigozhin, Russia will try to re-group and attack Ukraine again.?
Now is the time to send a clear signal that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and to act upon that pledge as soon as the border is secured, so Russia’s war can never begin again.
Ambassador Kurt Volker is a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. A leading expert in US foreign and national security policy, he served as US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017-2019, and as US Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009.
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Wagner’s Insurrection Ends With an Uncertain Agreement
In the end, Putin demonstrated that he’s still in control of Russia.
By?Allison Fedirka ?-
June 24, 2023
One of the more important battles of the Ukraine war has been taking place within the Russian government itself. Reports over the past several months paint a picture of tension among the Kremlin, the military, private mercenaries and oligarchs, even if most of their differences were kept out of the public eye. That changed on June 23, when the Wagner Group started its insurrection in southern Russia, clearly demonstrating that it disagreed with President Vladimir Putin and that it was ready to defy the Defense Ministry. This raised questions about whether the insurrection could upend the government. It didn’t.
Initially, Wagner took control of Rostov-on-Don. Armored vehicles along with detachments of Wagner cordoned off the headquarters of the Southern Military District, the head office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the local Federal Security Service building, one of the police departments and more. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin conditioned his release of the city on Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov meeting him at the headquarters of the Southern Military District. A contingent of Wagner forces also advanced north from Rostov-on-Don, past Voronezh and toward Moscow. Western media, in contrast to Russian outlets, reported that Wagner had taken control of all military facilities in Voronezh.
The Kremlin’s response came quickly. First, it tried to deplete the ranks of the Wagner fighters, appealing to those involved in the Rostov-on-Don operation to stop and resume contact with Russian officials as quickly as possible. The Defense Ministry also announced that it was aiding Wagner fighters who ask for the safe return to their bases. Reports suggest some took the government up on the offer, or returned to their places of deployment after being called up by the ministry.
In response to the threat to Moscow, the Kremlin expanded the coverage area of its special anti-terrorist operation to include the capital city, its surrounding regions and Voronezh. It also canceled large public events and removed Wagner advertisements. In St. Petersburg, government security forces cordoned off Wagner’s building on Zolotaya Street. The government closed part of the M-4 highway in the Voronezh region. Most notably, Russian military aircraft reportedly engaged the Wagner forces along the highway.
Meanwhile, Putin tried to consolidate public support and show strength. In a morning address, he called Wagner’s actions treasonous and warned that participants in the rebellion would suffer severe punishment. He also called friendly governments in the region –?Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey – to try to shore up support.
Evidently, the conversation between Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was extremely fruitful. Lukashenko mediated talks between Putin and Prigozhin that resulted in an agreement whose details remain a mystery – except that Prigozhin announced that Wagner would stop its advance toward Moscow, return to its bases and try to further de-escalate.
Whether or not the situation is resolved, the future of Russia’s armed forces and Wagner remains uncertain. Wagner played a key role in Russia’s strategy in Ukraine and repeatedly proved to be among Russia’s most effective fighting forces. It is unclear whether Wagner will challenge Putin again in the future, or whether there will be changes in the Russian military leadership. Also unclear is what effect the insurrection and agreement might have on Wagner and Russian troops in Ukraine.
A final possibility is that we have just witnessed a classic Russian “maskirovka,” basically theater to distract from the fighting in Ukraine. Ultimately, no definitive casualties were reported, and a negotiated settlement was reached. It took some wind out of Wagner’s sails, improved Lukashenko’s image and, in the end, demonstrated that Putin remains in control of Russia.
The End+++++++++++++