Is West Bengal on the Verge of Becoming the Next Bangladesh?

The answer might be YES!

With the increasing number of illegal immigrants and refugees who are eventually acquiring ration cards, Aadhar cards, and voter cards, these individuals are becoming illicit citizens of the state and, by extension, the country.

The Numbers Behind the Concern

Let’s delve into some numbers that might surprise you. According to an article in the Economic Times, border areas along West Bengal and Tripura have seen the highest detection rates of illegal immigrants. A home ministry response before Parliament highlighted the issue. Data reveals that the number of Bangladeshi nationals who overstayed their visa validity periods after entering India legally was 25,942 in 2017, 49,645 in 2018, and 35,055 in 2019. Minister of State for Home Affairs, Nityanand Rai, noted in a written reply before the Rajya Sabha, "Illegal immigrants enter the country without valid travel documents clandestinely and surreptitiously. Detection, detention, and deportation of such illegally staying foreign nationals, including Bangladeshis, is an ongoing process. Since their entry is clandestine and surreptitious, it is impossible to collect accurate data of such Bangladeshi nationals living in various parts of the country."

Economic Implications

Considering the current situation in Bangladesh, it is evident that individuals will seek refuge in India for a safer and more secure life, making West Bengal a significant and sensitive international border.

The infiltration of illegal immigrants will impact the demand for basic amenities and resources. For example, as per the 2021 Census, West Bengal's population is approximately 91 million, with an annual population growth rate of around 1.5%. This growth rate, combined with the influx of illegal immigrants, exacerbates the strain on resources. A sudden increase in demand with a static supply will likely lead to a price hike, creating economic challenges for legal citizens.

Market Dynamics

West Bengal's economy, predominantly agrarian, is also seeing rapid urbanization, with Kolkata being a major metropolitan area. However, the illegal influx can skew market dynamics. For instance, in the food grain market, the state produced approximately 15.7 million metric tonnes of rice in 2021. With increased demand from illegal immigrants, prices of essential commodities could rise significantly. The state might experience inflationary pressures similar to what has been witnessed in states with high immigration rates.

Social and Economic Challenges

While West Bengal might not immediately adjust its reservation system in government jobs for certain quotas, the lack of basic amenities and price hikes could lead to black marketing and social unrest. For example, the housing market, where the state had a demand-supply gap of about 1.2 million units in 2021, may face further strain. Increased demand without corresponding supply could inflate property prices and rent, making housing unaffordable for many.

Conclusion

The situation calls for robust policy measures to manage and monitor the influx of immigrants and ensure that the economic stability of the state is maintained. Without appropriate interventions, West Bengal could face severe socio-economic challenges, affecting the state and the nation.