Were living in uncertain, difficult and dangerous times. How to approach organizational planning for 2024.

I opened our @sandalschurch QBR (Quarterly Business Review) last week contextualizing our meeting and approach to planning 2024.

Part of my opening was “We are living in uncertain, difficult and dangerous times.” I'm concerned about what I see coming in the next few years and how external forces may affect our organization.?

That got me thinking I'd share a few thoughts here to stimulate your thinking and planning as an organizational leader for the next season of education, business, ministry etc.

We are living in uncertain, difficult and dangerous times

Examples:

1. Geopolitical - With wars in multiple regions, threats of new wars in other regions and the possibility of several nations being drawn into these conflicts, the geopolitical climate is as unstable as it has been in decades. With this level of geopolitical instability, we should anticipate many societal challenges including a drag on the psyche of citizens around the world.
2. 2024 Election - The Presidential election is coming in November of 2024 for the US and it certainly will bring a whole host of “opportunities” :) Most certainly we will face a tremendous amount of division as the right, left and middle battle over ideology, policy and candidacy. I anticipate this leaving much of the US bewildered and in the short term at least a retraction in the key economic markets.
3. Economy will likely take a dump - If you’ve been following the economy the last few years you've been hearing the terms hard and soft landing. From 2020 through the first half of 2023 most experts have been mixed on whether we will have a hard or soft landing of the economy. Now as we are closing in on the end of 2023 most experts are suggesting we are headed for a hard landing (severe downturn in the economy). If this prediction is right, you will see a drastic reduction in capital and personal spending, the job market will dry up, small business revenue will be reduced, home values will drop and charitable donations will shrink.
4. California Exodus - This is unique to those of us living and working in California. But the reports of people moving out of California in record numbers are true. A simple Google search can answer the why question of this exodus but the reality is that organizations that exist in the California ecosystem are and will be affected by this migration in a host of ways. All leading up to a much more complex and layered environment to be successful in, especially considering the 3 issues listed above.

The 4 items above are a short list of issues facing the US and the world. There’s several more macro challenges facing every organization both large and small in the days ahead but these are the ones that I wanted to focus on.

Now that we've got the doom and gloom behind us, I want to share a few ideas for how to plan for such significant uncertainty. Im going to lay these thoughts out based on organization type to be a little more targeted and helpful.

1. Churches - 1-Simplify and clarify your strategy to include a reduction of your activities and programming. By reducing the load on your staff it will allow you to reduce your payroll as you experience staff turnover/attrition. Basically you reduce the load on your organization and as you have turnover you are better positioned to not backfill those roles. 2-Teach your congregation over the next year to become more personally resilient by relying on God and each other. 3-Be up front with your key donors about the challenges ahead and invest in these relationships more intently.?
2. Small Businesses - 1-Consider new perhaps adjacent service offerings that don't require any additional capital. 2-If you're a service provider, look to reduce your rate for longer term engagements. Better to bring in less revenue but drive more consistent income during uncertain times. 3-Look at reducing your overhead ie sublease a portion of your space, create rental opportunities for your equipment, outsource some critical functions, increase your mix of part time to full time staff.
3. Institutions or Corporations - Approve a lower Capex spend than normal and create a larger Capex contingency budget that you don't spend if revenues don't hit plan. Create an incentive for your verticals, business units etc to reduce expenses and create a stronger stewardship mindset. Delay hiring and or comp increases in 2024 by at least 1 quarter.

These ideas are just thought starters and while I hope there's at least 1 tangible takeaway that will help you plan and lead your organization forward, my goal here is to get you in a preparation mindset. It's important that you do not lead out of fear but lead out of the confidence that you have a proactive plan to successfully navigate the uncertain times ahead.

Finally, I am attaching an article from The Guardian called “3 weeks that changed the world”. It's an article about the global financial crisis in 2008. I'm linking to this article to emphasize the point that these macro issues can materialize overnight and an organization that has done the proper proactive planning has a much better shot of coming out the other side positioned for growth.

Happy 2024 planning!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/dec/28/markets-credit-crunch-banking-2008