And Then There Were Four

There will only be four candidates on stage for the fourth GOP debate tonight since the dominant candidate again won't attend, and only four of the remaining contenders qualified:

• Chris Christie
• Ron DeSantis
• Nikki Haley
• Vivek Ramaswamy

Trump Dominates the Primary Landscape

The political landscape within the Republican primary persists in being shaped by Donald Trump's commanding presence. Although Nikki Haley has made some headway, particularly among the college-educated faction within the party, Trump's adversaries trail significantly. The electorate's composition in the early states, with a probable predominance of voters without a four-year degree, adds a layer of complexity for those challenging Trump.

The GOP's Educational Divide

As observers anticipate the outcomes of the ongoing primary debates, Nikki Haley has garnered attention as a formidable contender to Donald Trump. Notably, Haley has surpassed Ron DeSantis in certain areas, securing the support of influential conservative groups. However, Haley and DeSantis remain far behind Trump in polling data. The contest between them recalls the imagery of an athlete who celebrates on the podium only to be discovered not securing the top position. Despite their efforts, overtaking Trump's lead appears impossible at this juncture.

The GOP electorate exhibits a persistent division based on educational attainment, continuing the 2016 primary season. Trump's coalition successfully amalgamates robust support from voters without a college degree (beer track) with ample backing from the college-educated electorate (wine track). A recent survey illustrates this advantage: Trump appeals to 67% of non-college-educated voters and 48% of those with a college degree. DeSantis and Haley lag with 12% each nationally, even though Haley displays a significant education gap favoring her among college-educated voters.

Detailed polling from crucial early states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, confirms this trend. Trump prevails across both demographics but with a stronger foothold among non-college voters. Haley sometimes leads among college graduates, but more than this, support is needed to challenge Trump's supremacy. For instance, in South Carolina, Trump and Haley are neck and neck among college graduates, yet Trump retains a considerable lead among non-degree holders.

Furthermore, another GOP figure, former Governor Chris Christie, predominantly draws support from the college-educated demographic, creating additional challenges for Haley in states like New Hampshire.

An underlying question for the GOP primaries revolves around the actual educational composition of voters. While exit polls from 2016 and 2020 illustrated an almost even split, contemporary dynamics hint at a possible shift towards a constituency with fewer college degrees, reflecting the broader electoral trends witnessed since the Trump era.

In summary, Donald Trump's position within the Republican primary race is buttressed by solid support across different educational demographics. While Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis make targeted appeals, they have yet to dent Trump's broad appeal significantly. The electorate's educational breakdown will influence how the competition evolves, with a skew towards non-degree holders possibly shaping the overall outcome.