We'll Always Have Paris--Trump and Climate Change

To quote the current leader of France, Emmanuel Macron, 'Let's make this planet great again.' Let's start by talking about President Trump's decision to abandon the Paris climate agreement, signed with much fanfare in 2015.

The agreement was more symbol than action, but the world needed a symbol--still does. The Paris Climate Accord, if fully implemented, would not have reduced CO2 emissions significantly, as Bjorn Lomborg never tires of pointing out. But it was a sign of multinational recognition of human-caused climate change as a serious issue and evidence of the willingness of the multinational community to work together. It was an important first step and was always treated as such.

It was important. Sadly, so is President Trump's decision to pull the US out of it. That's because it was a purely and nakedly political act, designed to placate, if not pander to, his political base.

We know this because the alternatives Trump had to abandoning the accord were highly attractive to American Republicans. Trump could have simply submitted the agreement to the Senate, where it almost certainly would have failed to pass. Trump could have achieved his goal and put the responsibility on the Senate.

If Trump had been concerned, rather than excited, about the prospect of international criticism, he could have remained within the agreement but redefined downward the national contributions the US pledged to make, something the Paris Accord allows. This would have allowed Trump to say in complete honesty that he and the US are still operating within the multinational framework while scaling back efforts to address this issue.

Instead, Trump advertised his proclamation in advance, insuring great publicity, and accompanied his decision with a rambling speech that has worrying antecedents, including some from the period that produced Bogart's famous line to Bergman.

Because the Paris Agreement was more symbol than actual combat against climate change, Trump's decision will not condemn us to climate hell. His action was just as symbolic as the agreement itself. Indeed, the polarizing nature of his time on the world stage may stimulate redoubled efforts by those who oppose President Trump and are firmly committed to the fight against global warming.

That he chose to make it a Trump decision (somewhat similar to a Custer decision...) he is clearly making it a statement. Almost a personal statement. It seems clear that he not only is willing to accept the inevitable criticism, but that he needs it.

The Paris Accord on Climate Change will not disappear just because Trump leads America out of it. The other 189 countries can soldier on and even strengthen the world's response. America is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China, and America's emissions are on a downward slope that will continue no matter what the Trump administration does.

What the rest of the world emits will depend on how we continue to support efforts against both conventional pollution and CO2 in places like India, Indonesia, China and Russia. That support consists of technology transfer, funding and collaborative innovation.

We who disapprove of Trump's actions can, if we so decide, treat his actions on climate change (and other things as well) as a bump in the road that we'll get past in 4 years--or less. Maybe considerably less.

We'll always have Paris. And Paris will welcome us back after this political convulsion has passed.