Welcome to Tariff Land - Opportunities in Chaos

There are no shortage of diatribes online about the state of global leadership, whether your guy is making the necessary realignments long called for but never enacted, or someone left the baboon door open at the zoo, and apologies to the baboons, this is a chaotic time for the global order. While expected in the 2020s, this is even more abrupt than some of the great thinkers imagined. Whether you’re examining this situation through the lens of a family, community, nation, corporation, not for profit or an entrepreneur, this is impacting how you intent to run your life, all aspects.

A wonderful time to remind ourselves of the stoic philosophy on dichotomy of control. The idea that everything falls within one of two categories, things that are within your influence to change and that which is not. What we’re experiencing online is the expected and justified expression of emotions, ideas, thoughts and beliefs. I encourage everyone to be expressive, it’s cathartic, and to a large minority, very fun. So plow on, enjoy, scream, decry unjust decisions. However, to be successful in the next 8 years, you’ll need to separate the two arenas.

First, accept that you cannot control or influence situations outside your immediate vicinity, and not even some of those - its embracing your irrelevance beyond the two things you do control. What you say and do, it is that simple. To be successful, you must learn not to allow the emotional expression of your beliefs to affect your personal and professional lives. Full stop. You have a life strategy, a roadmap for your goals and ambitions which must not be curtailed because of the political leadership of any specific nation. You are in pursuit of your dreams, chasing that which you want, so why would you allow an emotional reaction to decisions that are completely out of your control to alter the mission? I have seen many people - or at least on the Internet, announce brash, life altering decisions as a result of an election, or edict of a politician. Whether that be to move nations, abandon friendships or close business, individuals are allowing emotional illogical reactions to influence their lives.

One option, should you be able to belay the emotional response, is to be bold. Be aggressive and seize the opportunities that are always present in chaos. Systems thinking understands that when significant exogenous shock occurs, there are disruptions throughout the exchange of information, goods and services. These situations are ameliorated by those who pounce on chance, who see solutions in the fog of war. Right now, there are marketing campaigns by entrepreneurs who excel in navigating logistics across tariff laden international borders. They have tailored their messaging to the current situation and within hours of the announced tariffs, they are offering professional services to navigate the paperwork and support continued cross-border business. Strategic thinking leadership created plans for this possibility in the fall of 2024 and are already implementing ideas to limit the losses from tariffs. One entrepreneur created a business to assist with temporary residency permits in business friendly nations in the hemisphere, including tax obligations and regulatory compliance. Each of these ideas was born from chaos, someone saw the opportunity and launched.

I have written in the past about strategic thinking, in many “units of measure”, whether that be community, family or corporations. A plan for your future, a roadmap to get from here to there, is your greatest asset in these chaotic times. Understanding where you and your family are going, the goalposts and milestones, lead to a marked and significant reduction in stress or anxiety. The only ideas that belong in your strategy are those within your control. An old latin phrase, “amor fati”, is a favourite of stoic thinkers. Literally translated it means “love fate”, the idea is grounded in the truth that you influence very little and that for a happy existence, you must accept all that you do not control. It is neither good nor bad, but it is beyond your control to influence, so you simply accept it as is. Now that doesn’t mean you do nothing, no, the stoics also argue that you use situations beyond your control to make decisions about your life. I cannot control the actions and decisions of the US government, but I can forecast them, understand them, determine the influence on my personal / professional strategy and use that to make the next set of decisions. Not difficult, but it requires that most grand of ideas - remove the emotional reaction from important decisions.

The world will not care about your personal assessment of the state of affairs, your well researched opinion on the intelligence present in the minds of politicians or some other well crafted character assassination piece. Really, those are for you and your circle to banter over a beverage at the local watering hole. Enjoy, but what those decisions do is change the playing field. The leaders in power make the rules, set the conditions for businesses to operate and enact laws to govern how society operates. We are permitted a vote at prescribed times, we can announce our frustration with an epic post online, but in the end we are not influential. So if the government is changing the rules, is chaotically upending the game, you can find those opportunities, the silver lining.

If you’re emotionally exhausted or drained dealing with the abrupt change in global order and sense of normalcy, this is a wakeup call. This is but the first few shots of a long campaign to re-order global relationships, to change how nations act and solve crises. We’re not even at the middle portion of the first act, this is just a taste of the disorder to come. You must embrace the chaos, learn to operate throughout in an emotionally stable state and if you choose, to find the moments that offer chances to shine, the ones only possible in disruptive times. Remember the pandemic, how individuals pivoted to new ideas, to protecting family incomes from external influence, to building new businesses to solve real situation-induced problems. Families and business rose to the challenge and emerged from the pandemic in better condition that they entered. That is possible for you and yours now, but that requires you to transition from shock to mobilization.

Protesting actions you deem to be against your values is fine, arguing for something different is a right, where it becomes a disorder is when it drives your decisions, when you allow the decisions and actions of others to determine your state of mind. The solution is found in the creation of a risk mitigated life, one where you understand the world in which you live, embrace all it has to offer and to operate within the rules imposed. Bold decisions and being risk adverse are not mutually exclusive. You can choose to design a life that is insulated to the greatest extent possible, from political and economic decisions that are beyond your control, that permits - even encourages you, to seize the day, to jump into the chaos and abyss. Those who see opportunity in the chaos and decide to embrace the uncertainty with an innovative strategy will be case studies in 2032 on how to win when others are angry and profoundly emotionally befuddled.

The question for you is how you choose to embrace the world as it is presented. You are responsible for your outcomes, success in these chaotic times is within your grasp, should you choose to move beyond the emotional uncomfortableness and embrace chaos.

Good luck.