Welcome to the strangest recession in US history

While we are now in a textbook definition of a recession, this one is not, and will not be, like anything we have experienced before. Let me plead my case, all data is from the Federal Reserve Database:

·???????Job openings are twice as high as they were before the 2007-08 Recession and over 4 million higher than they were in January of 2020. (Link)

·???????Hiring is strongly trending up over the last several months and is clearly not in a recession trend. (Link)

·???????Banks have been reducing the toxic and volatile assets on their balance sheet for the last 18 months, well before GDP contraction (Link)

·???????Personal savings are strong and have stabilized post-stimulus and personal saving rates have not seen the whiplash associated with the last several modern US recessions. (Link & Link)

·???????Throughout this recession people have increased their buying, and company their production of, durable goods (large purchases like home appliances, vehicles, and pretty much anything you use for more than a year). Big purchases like this are a sign people are optimistic about their future economic positions and production of these goods represent strong manufacturing jobs. (Link & Link)

While I could keep going, there’s one specific stat set I want to focus on: employment. Continued unemployment claims are the lowest they have been since 1970, despite the population growing by 130 million (Link). The unemployment rate is right where it was before the pandemic, 3.6% (Link). During the recessionary period, the labor force participation rate climbed, which is a pattern unseen in post-WWII recessions (Link). Employment statistics mean a lot more because they represent people; every negative movement in the above numbers represent a catastrophic moment in someone’s life, and any improvement in those same numbers represents opportunity. When these numbers are strong, American economic livelihoods are strong.

GDP contraction and inflation are to be taken serious. Policymakers need to support policies that address the concerning state of these metrics. My two cents, which is worth a lot less than a penny, is that this recession is already over and the contraction in growth is a product of over stimulation of the economy from Federal spending during the pandemic. This economic “whiplash” will stabilize if the Federal Reserve and the Federal Government don’t over correct; I’m actually optimistic they won’t overcorrect.

We will see news headlines saying “The Economy is Collapsing”, “How Bad the Economy is”, and other apocalyptic lines. Remember to trust the statistics; they’re far less entertaining but far less likely to lie.