Welcome to the new world. Are we ready for it?

Welcome to the new world are we ready for it?

Can there be a time with more volatility, risks, change and apprehension for humans? It could be worse, thankfully it's not. Being ready for an abrupt new economy and a technologically driven world will require all of us working again toward managing and dealing with change. That starts with knowing who you are and what you want. This is about your purpose in the world and your means improve it? How will it be different than what everyone else left behind? Why will people follow you? What's your Reliability Quotient? What is your value proposition? What competitive advantage do you bring to the new world? Tough questions with a lot of hard work. People who have adjusted to major shifts have answered these questions honestly and embraced the unknown. That's your future, being prepared to take on the unknown.?Far too many have been caught off guard, afraid of change, missing the opportunities. Coasting in a world that is moving faster than it did in the last year is a big risk. If you want to be a part of it, you must differentiate yourself, be determined and fearlessly stay ahead of disruption. Be open minded and laugh and never give change the upper hand.??Turn your human talent up and into a competitive advantage. That will make you ready for the new world.

Supply chain, inflation and industry profiteering

Are consolidated businesses in industries with few to no competitors taking advantage of consumers? It may indeed be happening. Some of these businesses stayed open with few closures during the pandemic, particularly meat processing and packaging. They also have few competitors. So why the higher prices? Here is a White House update and a Globe and Mail article that highlights all the areas that have spiked in prices. Here is also an excellent article to better understand supply chain inflation.

Fast Competition

How does a retailer, and for that matter any business win in the climate that we are currently in? If we stick with simple basics "the best product at the most affordable price with the best overall service wins." Well at least it used to. As simple as that sounds it will take a lot more than this to win. The challenge is to focus on your high value, high priority products and secure their availability. That means ensuring your supply chain is working for you. However the days of planning have changed, now you need to augment your planning with technology to identify, design and develop trends faster! Coupled with the speed for procurement and get to market on time.

How will consumers behave with inflation?

As mentioned last week here are the results of our recent poll. Keep in mind that everything is snap shot in time. The poll was run between March 11-17, 2022 with 1,459 responses. The largest group 41.9% said they would cut back on all expenses and focus on saving money. Another 24.8% will cut back on going out, and 15% would cut back on vacations. Only 18.3% consumers said they would make no changes. Again a snapshot however as the pressure of all the economic challenges suggests consumers will pare back. At the same time a business operator needs to think like they did during the pandemic on how to create value and stay connected with consumers who will be on the search for the lowest costs.

Do we need a supply chain independence day?

While globalization has been good for the world it is now unfortunately showing us signs that trade and supply chains are politically and economically vulnerable. As such, the relationships being forged by China and Russia are troublesome, they want to conquer Asia and Europe respectively and will use economic and political will to change the world. It won't be the first time trade has created political conflicts. We may only have about ten years to re-shore or near-shore supply chains. It is important that we understand the potential risks and move important production capabilities and technology to more trusted and reliable sources and countries. Consider this article from Economist in their view our liberal democracy is at risk. However it is important to also show that ports and shipping line pressure have not eased in volume, another reason to seek other options. Of course smaller ships and more of them are being used, adding to port congestion. Read more here at some point things need to change.

Retailing

Russia Burger King refuses to shut down. Restaurant Brands International is trying to off load its 15% stake in the Russian operations. More here

Loblaw is buying Lifemark clinics for $845 Million, it will be a part of Shoppers Drug Mary expansion into healthcare. More here

The Bay has an interest in Kohls. Does it make sense? More here Department stores are still a challenge in the retail category.

Tim Horton's expansion has begun in India. International expansion is not easy and you need to understand how to break into these markets. More here. The split between Tea and Coffee is 54% and 46%. The challenge is to be market right with your offerings.

GameStop, the stock that was being propped up last year by gamers and others trying to bend the market. It showed a loss during the holiday QTR. The stock fell more than 8% More here

Walmart fires employee with Down Syndrome and forced by judge to hire them back. More here Whatever the circumstances employers need to be smarter about providing the right work environment and training for disabled employees.

Mergers & Acquisitions In Retail

I've worked with private equity firms on opportunities and on my own to acquire retail chains. It is a lot of work and quite often with little reward. You never want to overpay for something that's failing and or needs to be turned around. Sellers have unrealistic expectations and don't always recognize they are failing or underperforming relative to similar competitors. One recently asked over $100 Million for a business with performance that's not worth $20 Million. You walk away from those. During 2022 as this current economy unfolds and pandemic are fully off, brands that were in trouble in 2019 will be in more trouble in 2022. Everything is timing when it comes to opportunities, and recognizing what's wrong with the business. Usually there is big disconnect between management and the frontline business. The sectors that I believe will do well, healthcare, pet care, fashion, sports wear, convenience and discount stores. I also see delivery systems from retailer to consumers being a big opportunity as we seek to be apart of that "new leisure society", not rich but living for today with a personal purpose.

Technology

Military Defence - From presentations to discussions with groups and business leaders the questions have been about the state of the world. How will the situation with Russia and Ukraine impact everything else? How vulnerable are businesses and supply chains? How can consumer behaviour change? Everyone is worried about a war spreading and rightfully so. If you are wondering can the world defend itself here are three technology companies that are defence contractors and what they are developing or have developed. Just click on their names to open their websites. Raytheon Technologies What do they do? Artificial intelligence, advanced propulsion, cyber security and advanced materials just to name a few. Then we have Northrop Grumman they develop high energy lasers, navigation, radar, fighter jets. And Lockheed Martin again lasers, hypersonic missiles, tactical airborne lasers. Yes, laser pods on jet fighters and on ships. Now is all of this already developed? In skunk works? We will never know for sure. It is all very impressive but we must always choose the path of peace. Peace comes when you can sit at the table with strength and confidence to back you up.

Metaverse - What are the chances that we will replace real life with an escape into another world? Imagine if you could pick and choose a life where you are more content. You leave for your real world work life and return home either put on a headset depending on some future state walk into a virtual or holographic room to live. Is it possible could we opt for that kind of living? Well apparently gamers spend over 8 hours per week playing games. Some more. Read this. And then there is this video on YouTube that suggests this is all more possible construct. Watch this with Mark Zuckerberg and Lex Fridman.

Career Management

Not everyone receives the calls from headhunters. Usually the reluctance is concern over the boss seeing that you are actively looking for work. However, the reality is that they too are managing their futures. It's important to understand that it's your career, future and ability to earn an income. You owe that to yourself. If the people who you work for ask why your LinkedIn profile says you are open to opportunities? The reply should be; isn't everyone? Make sure you have a profile that stands out, don't try to fill in on all the possible experiences because you may never get the mix right. You are only as visible as you are active and connected. There is nothing wrong with being transparent about your career goal. Focus on your personal development. What's missing in your skillsets and experiences? How do you plan to gain them? How current are your marketing, technology and financial skills? Ageism is discrimination. But do your part not to be seen as dated, show how your experiences add value to the new world. Better yet show how you can lead the next generation.

Who's Future Is It Anyway?

Personal Log: Going through a ton of news items this week. I ran into an old conclusion I had many years ago. The biggest part of this worlds problems? We can't agree on the future. For starters, Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars, what a brave idea. But I wonder would we have been beyond our solar system by now if for 3,000 - 5,000 years we weren't too busy destroying progress. Rewriting history with wars, coup d'état, civil wars, rebellions, weaponizing social media, trade, economic sanctions, triggering financial market crashes, and building hypersonic missiles. Throw in a few religious differences and you have a recipe for continued disagreements and change, because one person or group believes they have a better plan to control the world. In the end to subdue society and make them subservient. Instead of all this nonsense, could we have cured cancer by now? Ended hunger, poverty, mental health and homelessness? I watched the series called Foundation on AppleTV, it is sci-fi drama of a leader that continues to clone themselves and have done so for thousands of years into the future. If we are not careful we will be led by people who want to forever control society. I have often been asked what does it feel like to live in a communist or dictator led country? My reply has always been, imagine a world where you have no voice and the bureaucrats have taken over with deep rooted sense of entitlement. Whenever I share that I also think of George Orwell's Animal Farm. "All animals are created equal but some animals are more created more equal than others." At the end of the day it is about our futures not that of demagogues who believe they were ordained to lead, or the entitled.

Thank you for reading The Business Brief. Your feedback and support are appreciated. I am available for speaking engagements, interviews, advisory services. Just doing my part to help businesses and executives find the right path in a world with opportunities and disruption.

Contact: [email protected]

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