Welcome to the New Climate Bazaar: #NYClimateWeek

New York Climate Weeks smorgasbord of climate urgency, despair, energy, action, initiatives and hope.

This year New York Climate Week felt bigger than ever, I heard Usher, E. , Executive Director United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) report at Climate Action 's Stakeholder Launch for the COP28 UAE #InnovationZone & #IslandofHope that there were well over 550 listed events. It felt like a huge sprawling #climatebazaar. Where different topics such as climate finance, decarbonisation, carbon markets, adaptation, resilience, philanthropy etc have not yet organised themselves into a common threads, themes or thematic days.

It would be impossible to summarise this huge smorgasbord of events, initiatives, gatherings, and conversations. It did feel very bottom up and organic, a little chaotic with a sense of nervous energy.

The best anyone can do is offer their own personal reflections taken from their own pathway through the week. Here are mine:

1.???? In the wake of the #GlobalStockTake I felt increasing pessimism around our collective ability to deliver 1.5C, even the higher Paris threshold of 2.0C despite an increasing understanding that both the climate and human society is more sensitive to the changing climate than previously thought, best summed up by one comment I heard, “2C is the new 4C”.

2.???? There are a plethora of initiatives, commitments, and collaboration. More people than ever planting the metaphorical trees yet at the same time a sense we are missing a collective sense of not being able to see the forest for the trees. There is a feeling that there is no obvious thread or set of sinews pulling all this action together to achieve critical mass. Which is why I am so excited about the work Nick Henry and his team Climate Action are doing to choreograph and develop an ecosystem for impact in key areas including climate finance, Food & Ag, Hydrogen, Climate Philanthropy and the needs of the Small Island States ahead of the COP28 UAE Innovation Zone and Island of Hope in Dubai.

3.???? The politicisation of ESG was very evident with many disavowing the focus on form created by these three letters in preference to the substance of real impact driven action they embody. I heard this articulated very eloquently from Mindy Lubber CEO of Ceres, Inc. to an audience of over 600 at the Sustainable Investment Summit (#SIF) on Tuesday hosted by Climate Action .

4.???? Whilst this politicisation is more of a US phenomenon the UKs announcement it planned to soften, water down and even pull back from net zero commitments raised concerns that climate as a culture war issue could spread to Europe. Not unreasonably there was discussion about whether the UK was a stable business environment for low carbon industries and investors considering the policy uncertainty introduced by these announcements. Despite all the announcements of progress and commitments it is always valid to ask will these really be implemented when it gets difficult will we see backsliding of the kind being demonstrated by the UK?

5.???? It was fascinating to see a much more visible role for philanthropy in the structure of climate action rather than just the traditional behind the scenes support for organisations and initiatives, for example as a key part of the investment stack in many innovative investment structures, often playing the part of risk mitigator or risk taker. In this regard there was much talk of the World Economic Forum 's Giving to Amplify Earth Action (#GAEA) and the specific public private philanthropic partnerships being developed as part of GAEA. An initiative I am proud to have worked to design and stand up whilst at the WEF.

6.???? Many of my conversations (attending alongside both Rowan Douglas CBE and excellent Howden Group Holdings Climate & Nature team) during the week focused on the role of risk as both a barrier and potential accelerator to the speed & scale of climate action. If we can successfully mobilise a climate insurance ecosystem to mirror the finance one. I was certainly struck by the role philanthropy is playing as risk taker in many cases and whether this points the way for insurance? This was especially evident in many of the innovative financing initiatives showcased The Global Innovation Lab for Climate Finance chaired by Climate Policy Initiative 's Barbara Buchner .

7.???? A big focus on greenwashing often in the context of the voluntary carbon market. It felt unnecessarily adversarial, and I fear runs the risk of helping climate’s merchants of doubt undermine climate action in the business sector. I wondered if a more collaborative approach to improve mechanisms such as the voluntary carbon market would be more effective? Focusing on the elephant in the room, linking VCMs at a quantitative level to delivery of a net zero nature positive world. Saving the adversarial part of the advocacy toolbox for those who are doing nothing or worse still engaged in sowing doubt about the need for climate action? I was pleased to see policy makers and market participants grappling with this at IETA 's North America Climate Summit.

8.???? I also felt across the week there was widespread acknowledgement of three things:

a.???? we have the technologies, these are often cost competitive, increasingly cheaper and if they are not S Curves will make them so.

b.???? we have the necessary finance, it is just a matter of aligning it with the technology, policies, and de-risking to make the cost of capital attractive.

c.???? Yet we lack the socio-economic ability to bring these two together at the speed and scale required, whether described as political will, efficient decision making, or crisis mindset it seems to boil down to a feeling it is now not a question of technology or finance but one of political or social science.

9.???? My biggest moment of hope came with Thursday’s launch of the Inevitable Policy Response (#IPRs) latest policy forecast.

“Ultimately, our central forecast implies temperatures will peak at 1.7 – 1.8C suggesting we are on track for the first part of the Paris Agreement target, namely keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2C above pre-industrial levels."

When many are in despair about whether or not 1.5C or even 2.0C is still achievable this gives us hope that the second part of the Paris target is still within reach, if we can get our socioeconomic act together, namely, to pursue greater efforts to limit the temperature increases even further to 1.5C.

Certainly 1.7-1.8 is not good because every 0.1C really matters but I think we now know 2.0+ is certainly catastrophic. If after all the years of negotiations, talk, commitments and initiatives we are still on track for a 2.0C+ world this is likely to induce paralysis not hope and action. Whereas if it is 1.8C it is still bad and much more action is needed but there is hope our individual and collective efforts can make a difference.

10.? Finally, my lowest moment, perhaps partly due to tiredness after such a busy week, came at the famous The Explorers Club in New York at a Global Choices #ArcticAngels event on the loss of the Arctic Sea ice shield and its global consequences. The current unprecedented loss of the sea ice area and it's expected exponential impacts globally brought home to me like nothing else our increased understanding of the sensitivities of our climate system and our exposure to it. Several slides summed this up: Maybe Sooner than Thought: Latest Sea Level Rise Projections and Nassau, Bahamas: 1 m (likely inevitable; but by 2070 with current emissions).

?If I had to summarise #NYClimateWeek in a few words I would say there was an energised but chaotic sense of urgency, despair, energy, and hope all rolled into one.

Detail is key but making sense of the detail in amongst all the noise is still a major challenge.

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