Welcome to Donald Trump’s trade war

Welcome to Donald Trump’s trade war

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Hello from London,

Brutal. That’s the term my colleagues use in a new article to describe the 25% tariffs just imposed by Donald Trump on most imports from America’s closest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Don’t imagine this is some incremental shift, similar to the actions he took in his first term as president. These tariffs, imposed suddenly, far outstrip previous ones. As a result, expect higher prices for American consumers and potentially lower economic growth all over the place. Costs to American industry, such as carmakers, will also come from increasing uncertainty. North America’s economy, in the past few decades, had become remarkably integrated as supply lines criss-crossed the borders. Will these begin to unravel? Canada has already said it will impose 25% tariffs on some American imports. Mexico’s president has also talked of imposing new levies.

China, too, has been hit by additional tariffs—though at a lower rate for now than Canada and Mexico. In his first term, Mr Trump mostly focused on China, applying tariffs that hit some $370bn-worth of imports. The new round goes further. Ignoring China, it applies to some $900bn-worth of goods imported just from Canada and Mexico.

Mr Trump is plain wrong in raising tariffs. If they remain in place Americans will, though probably only slowly, pay the price. Still, this is what voters knew they were getting. As an elected politician who long promised that he would do this, Mr Trump has the right to do so. (I recommend you visit and bookmark our regularly updated Trump tracker, to keep an eye on his various actions and approval ratings.)?

The challenge for other countries, with leaders who better grasp the immense and mutual benefits of free trade, is how they respond. Mr Trump is a protectionist. He wants tariffs on imports from everywhere. Europe is also in his crosshairs, and governments there have long championed free trade. The political pressure for others will be to retaliate, as Canada has done, pushing the world towards a trade war and straining Western co-operation in other areas.?

Are these tariffs for the long term, or are they mostly a means for Mr Trump to bully his allies and partners in order to extract concessions? There’s a chance it is the latter. It is only a week since Mr Trump threatened tariffs on another close ally, Colombia, to strong-arm it into accepting returned migrants. Colombia’s government blustered in anger, threatened to retaliate with its own tariffs, then quickly cut a deal with Mr Trump.?

Elsewhere, we have launched our German election prediction model. Later this month voters will surely boot out Olaf Scholz and the Social Democrats, who have presided over stagnant growth and general gloom in Europe’s largest economy. That party could fall to third place. But which parties have the advantage now? How much the hard-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany rises is a big question, not least for similar hard-right parties—such as in France—hoping to do well in future elections.

If you’re following our coverage of the end of the second world war, with our 1945 archive project, then this week’s update contains a treat. We writers of course imagine that our carefully crafted words are the most interesting part of The Economist to readers. But study the adverts that appeared in our pages 80 years ago and you get a striking sense of what life in Britain at the end of the war was like.?

Finally, I went to the theatre on Saturday night in London and hugely enjoyed the show. The audience cheered and clapped in delight. But, at least where I sat, no one felt obliged to get to their feet and offer a standing ovation. Our Back Story columnist grumbled recently that the standing ovation has become far too routine—and that evidently struck a nerve with many readers. We’ve pulled together a selection of your best comments and letters on the topic in this article. I applaud your responses, but please note that I am doing so while sitting.

Adam Roberts, Digital editor?


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Trump’s brutal tariffs far outstrip any he has imposed before

Less than two weeks into his new administration, Donald Trump has placed large tariffs on America’s three biggest trading partners—raising the spectre of a global trade war. With executive orders signed on February 1st, he initiated tariffs of 25% on imports from both Canada and Mexico, and added levies of 10% to imports from China. Although Mr Trump had vowed to do just this, his actions will still be a shock to the global economy. They will drive up prices, weigh on growth and sow uncertainty for businesses. Moreover, they are likely to be just the first salvo for Mr Trump, who is itching to implement tariffs that are both more aggressive and more global.


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Mark Muller

Financial Controller at OOCL

14 小时前

His policies are similar to those of Hoover.

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If it isn't what the Economists puppet masters want it must then I suspect be seen as misguided. Trumps trajectory makes perfect sense from an anti globalist perspective, hence he was elected by a massive majority of people who have bills to pay.

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William Palaia

President at St. Elizabeth Display

6 天前

People writing your articles are left-wing Trump haters

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M. Bahad?r ?zer

import specialist

2 周

The US-Mexico border is 1.989 miles long. The Trump administration is sending back Mexican and Colombian immigrants. Deported people can return to the US. After all, these people are entering the US illegally. And no wall on the northern border of the US is high and capable of preventing illegal immigration. In my opinion, such a wall should have been built before these people were deported. If President Trump continues to act aggressively in sending back illegal immigrants, he could cripple the labor power of the US, which has already lost most of its production power to China and other far Asian countries. Trump administration should first of all build a wall that is capable of securing the entire northern border of the US from one end to the other. They can agree with the Mexican government to build up this wall 3 miles beyond the US-Mexico border. At the next stage, they should be selective about immigrants. Those who already have jobs and a regular life should be given at least temporal residence and work permits and documented in the beginning. Those who are engaged in illegal work, those with criminal records, etc. should be expelled. It seems that President Trump is doing nothing but beating the water in the air.

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People elected him, this is America of freedom & Liberty, let us wait & see him, he'll be for 5-ys and building & destroying then will go like others wait & see!

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