WeekWatch for 29th June 2020
Balina Rai (Dhesi)
Wealth Management Consultant at Lawrence Neil Wealth Management Limited
Samuel Pepys would have been happy. His diary reveals that, even during the worst of the Great Plague in 1665-66, and despite the clear risks to his health, he kept up his visits to London’s pubs, albeit less frequently. Fast-forward to 2020, a trip to the local hostelry will soon be back on the cards.
Four months after plague deaths peaked, Pepys wrote that “the town fills apace, and shops begin to be open again”. In announcing the most significant relaxation yet of lockdown rules and social distancing guidance in England, Boris Johnson hopes that the population will emulate the author and his fellow Londoners and quickly return to their former lives.
If the virus is contained, and social distancing measures are gradually eased, pubs and restaurants may indeed be busy again by Christmas. But Capital Economics suggested last week that it is not a fear of getting out and about that will hold back the economy for the next year or two. The biggest risk to GDP returning to pre-crisis levels is that the fall in incomes and revenues will reduce the ability of households and businesses to spend.