This week's MBS Highway ( your trusted source for Mortgage Market Intelligence ) provided to you by Simon Glenn
December’s Existing Home Sales hit their highest level since February, while real-time rental data could bode well for future inflation readings. Read on for these stories and more.
Existing Home Sales Rose for Third Straight Month
Closings on existing homes beat estimates in December, rising 2.2% from November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million units. Closings were also 9.3% higher than a year ago, which the National Association of REALTORS? (NAR) noted was the largest annual increase since June 2021.
What’s the bottom line? This was a strong report for December, given that it measured people who were likely shopping for homes in October and November, when rates were elevated.
NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, added that “home sales during the winter are typically softer than the spring and summer, but momentum is rising with sales climbing year-over-year for three straight months. Consumers clearly understand the long-term benefits of homeownership. Job and wage gains, along with increased inventory, are positively impacting the market."
However, this uptick in buyer demand also comes when inventory is still well below pre-pandemic norms. There were 1.15 million units available for sale at the end of December (-13.5% MoM and +16.2% YoY), though many homes counted in existing inventory are under contract and not truly available for purchase. In fact, there were only 872,000 “active listings” at the end of last month, so inventory is tighter than the reporting implies.
This pent-up demand for homes combined with ongoing tight supply continues to bode well for housing as an investment and continued home price appreciation over time.
Real-time Rental Data a Good Sign for Inflation
Shelter costs significantly influence the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the two main government inflation reports that impact the Federal Reserve and financial markets. Shelter makes up a large portion of these indices (nearly 46% of Core CPI, for example) and therefore plays a crucial role in determining whether inflation progresses towards the Fed’s 2% target.
What’s the bottom line? Currently, shelter costs in the CPI and PCE reports are higher and lag behind real-time rental data that has been reported by Realtor.com, Apartment List, CoreLogic and Zillow. As CPI and PCE reporting begin to better reflect this softer rental data, inflation should decrease. And while many factors influence the markets, lower inflation typically helps both Mortgage Bonds and interest rates improve.
Further Proof of Slower Hiring
Initial Jobless Claims rose by 6,000 to 223,000 in the latest week. Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 46,000 to 1.899 million and have now exceeded 1.8 million each week since the start of June.
What’s the bottom line? Although new unemployment filings remain historically low, the elevated number of Continuing Jobless Claims indicates that individuals are taking longer to secure employment. Moreover, with many people receiving benefits for only 26 weeks, the rise in Continuing Claims as benefits expire suggests underlying weakness and a slower rate of hiring.
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Family Hack of the Week
Celebrate National Blueberry Pancakes Day on January 28 with this Food Network recipe, perfect for any day. Makes 4 to 6 servings.
In a large bowl, sift together 1 3/4 cups flour, 2 tablespoons sugar, 1 teaspoon baking powder, 1/2 teaspoon baking soda, and 1/2 teaspoon salt. In another bowl, whisk 2 eggs, then add 1 cup milk, 1 cup sour cream, 1/2 stick melted butter, and 1/2 teaspoon vanilla.
Create a well in the dry ingredients, pour in the egg mixture, and whisk until just combined. Fold in 1 1/2 cups blueberries and 1/2 teaspoon lemon zest.
Heat a large skillet or griddle over medium heat and coat it with melted butter. Pour approximately 1/4 cup of batter into the skillet for each pancake. If the batter is too thick, thin it with 1 to 2 tablespoons of milk. When bubbles form and pop on the top of the pancakes and the outer edges look cooked, flip the pancakes and cook for about 1 minute on the other side.
What to Look for This Week
The Fed's 2-day meeting starts Tuesday, with a rate decision and press conference on Wednesday afternoon. The Personal Consumption Expenditures report, their favored inflation measure, will be released Friday.
Upcoming housing reports include December's New and Pending Home Sales on Monday and Thursday, and appreciation data on Tuesday. On Thursday, Jobless Claims and the first GDP reading for Q4 2024 will also be released.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds ended last week testing a ceiling at 100.43, which is a Fibonacci level and has been difficult to break above. If Bonds can overtake this level, there is almost 20 basis points of room to the upside before reaching the next level of resistance at the 50-day Moving Average.
The 10-year is battling support at its 25-day Moving Average, with a 4.588% Fibonacci floor just under that. If these levels are broken, there is a clear path to the 50-day Moving Average at 4.47%.