Weekly Wisdom: Jobs Number Approaches

Greetings fellow traders and welcome to your October 4th edition of Weekly Wisdom: Levels to Know and Moves to Look For!

Now let's get to what we're currently seeing in these volatile markets and what we have our focus on going forward.

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Taking a look back on this week, September 30 - October 4:

• Markets have stalled out and taken a bit of a breather lower to start off the month of October trading.
• September ended with a very strong close on the month and quarter end, but the first day of October on Tuesday saw opposite flows with the market negating the prior Monday end of September.
• $SPX futures have since stalled lower and gone sideways ahead of Friday’s September jobs number, which the Fed will be watching closely and may influence the rate cut bets markets are pricing in for November and December.
• Data for the week began on Monday with a beat for Chicago PMI coming in at 46.6 vs 46.1 expected. Powell spoke in the afternoon and hinted toward the November and December rate cuts both being a 25bps cut.
• Tuesday began with final manufacturing PMI which was a slight beat at 47.3 vs 47 expected. We then saw a beat for JOLTS job openings at 8.04 million vs 7.64 million expected. However, ISM manufacturing PMI was a miss at 47.2 vs 47.6 expected. ISM manufacturing prices also missed at 48.3 vs 53.5 expected. Construction spending m/m missed at -0.1% vs 0.2% expected.
• Wednesday morning brought a beat for ADP non-farm employment change coming in at 143,000 vs 124,000 expected.
• Thursday’s weekly unemployment claims were a slight miss at 225,000 vs 222,000 expected. We then saw a slight miss for final services PMI at 55.2 vs 55.4 expected. This was followed with a beat for ISM services PMI coming in at 54.9 vs 51.7 expected. Factory orders m/m was a miss at -0.2% vs 0.1% expected.
• Friday, October 4 ends the week with average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change, and the unemployment rate all at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Here's Your Chart of the Week:

Via Goldman Sachs Investment Research:? China ETF call volume spikes to highs not seen since before the 2020 pandemic as China stocks see further upside follow through this week with momentum staying strong for now.

Source

SPY Daily Update:

$SPY daily chart with a small sell lower this week as traders wait for the Friday jobs number - bulls are looking for a break and close back over 570 while bears are looking for a close back below 564.

SPY Weekly Update:

$SPY weekly chart with a pause this week after three green weeks in a row - overall on the bigger picture here bulls still look good over 564.

Want to Trade With My Team? Click here!

-Patrick Hawe

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Disclosures

Patrick Hawe's current positions:

*As of 2:45pm ET October 3, 2024

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