Weekly update #44
Welcome to this edition of the weekly newsletter. The idea behind this is to gather all the information in the startup ecosystem in one place, with a special focus on the fintech market.
Before jumping to the main topics for this week, I am exploring partnerships with the newsletter. So this edition is sponsored by Notion, which is offering a 6-months free plan of its plus product to all founders submitting an application for their startups program.
In order to redeem the free trial, submit an application using this link https://ntn.so/michelemattei, select Michele Mattei as partner and include the following partner key: STARTUP4110P62416. I really hope it will be helpful for many founders out there!
Coming back to us, I’ve been recently investing a lot of time to deep dive on the Private Equity market. Only in the US, approximately 13% of all SMEs are owned by Millennials, while the great majority is in the hands of Boomers and GenX. According to statistics, two thirds of those owners plan to sell their business in the upcoming 5 years, with one of the greatest generational transfer of wealth ever recorded. In the “Global Private Equity Report 2024” by 贝恩公司 you can see why we are in a unique position right now. Here my main takeaways:
Although the sharp decline in deal activity during late 2022 and into 2023 resembles the downturn following the 2008–09 global financial crisis (GFC), the current challenges facing the industry are unique. The figures are strikingly similar to the GFC era: deal value and count have dropped 60% and 35% from their 2021 peaks, exit value is down 66%, and fund closures have decreased by nearly 55%. Rising interest rates disrupted dealmaking in 2023, stalling the capital flow. However, the factors driving these declines differ greatly from those in 2008–09, necessitating a fresh perspective to understand the situation.
The toughest part of the current gridlock is anticipating what comes next. However, early signs of a recovery are beginning to emerge. Buyout funds currently hold a record $1.2 trillion in dry powder, with 26% of that being four years old or more, up from 22% in 2022. This creates a stronger-than-usual incentive for general partners to start deploying capital, even under less-than-ideal conditions. Deal activity is already showing signs of increase, and with support from the Fed and the European Central Bank, there’s a positive outlook for deal count and value in 2024.
Absent further disruptions, a more stable or even favorable outlook for 2024 will give general partners more confidence in their underwriting decisions. Additionally, the substantial amount and age of dry powder in their funds are driving a strong incentive to act. The industry currently holds an unprecedented $3.9 trillion in unspent capital, with the largest portion ($1.2 trillion) in buyout funds. The recent slowdown in dealmaking has increased the average age of this capital, with about 26% of it now over four years old and ready to be deployed.
Here there is also a very interesting trend going on, not highlighted by data but experienced directly, about PE being more and more interested in startups. Not only in fintech, but widely in the industry, there are many opportunities in terms of startups with a good business that are not able to raise additional capital, and PE is taking a good look at potential deals here. The PE approach there will hit particularly hard, I can tell by experience, but it can also be very effective and game changing for many startups out there.
Before jumping to the latest news, a quick request from my side. I will start a small series of podcasts to interview fintech founders and VC managers active in the ecosystem. If you want to be part of it, feel free to drop me a line on Linkedin!
Anyway we saw some very interesting news in the market this week. Visa is reported in talks to buy Featurespace , while closing a partnership with Revolut on a cross borders solution. Klarna si evaluationg a huge workforce cut using AI, bunch and Swan work together on a new embedded banking product, and Adyen strikes a partnership with 宜家 to power their online and on-site payments. The big news is that OpenAI is reported closing a new round at a staggering $100 billion valuation. In the VC industry, the news of the week is redalpine closing a new $200 million fund, but we also saw SBVA raising a $130 million new fund and Illumina Ventures closing a $300 million third fund. Finally, some very interesting round from fintech startups like axio , Shift , Sorella Labs , Linker Finance (TS F23) , Comun , TEP MED , Arch Lending , When and many others.
领英推荐
But let's take a closer look at the main news of the last seven days:
Closed deals
Insights on the VC industry
News on the market
A special look in the Italian market
And here some useful resources for everyone involved in the ecosystem:
Events you don’t want to miss
You have a cool event you want to mention or to sponsor? Feel free to send me a DM.
Startups raising funds
Take also a look at the last edition of the newsletter, Weekly update #43