WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: STRONG JOBS REPORT TEMPERS ENTHUSIASM OVER APPLE BUYBACK AND INDIA PROGRESS
The Arora Report, Ltd.
The most accurate stock market, gold, and oil analysis in both bull and bear markets - over 100 million page views.
By?Nigam Arora ?& Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from?The Arora Report ?is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of?The Arora Report .?
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
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STRONG JOBS REPORT TEMPERS ENTHUSIASM OVER APPLE BUYBACK AND INDIA PROGRESS
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Apple Earnings And Jobs Report
Please?click here ?for a chart of Apple stock (AAPL).
Note the following:
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial ) stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
Gold
Gold is being sold on the strong jobs report.??
The momo crowd is ?? gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
Oil is being bought on the strong jobs report.
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ?? but if investors start looking at the reality of Apple earnings, the indicator will turn ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2019, silver futures are at $25.88, and oil futures are at $70.40.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4111?as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.
DJIA?futures are up 235 points.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding ?? in cash or treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ??, and short term hedges of ??. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.?The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.?If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.??When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.?High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.?Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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COCKROACH THEORY STRIKES AGAIN, FIGHT THE FED MANTRA PICKS UP STEAM, ECB RATE HIKE
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
PacWest In Trouble
Please?click here ?for a chart of PacWest Bancorp stock (PACW).
Note the following:
The cockroach theory is that if you see one cockroach, there are more cockroaches.?Due to the rapid rise of interest rates and a potential recession looming, the cockroach theory is applicable to regional banks.
We shared the cockroach theory with you when problems arose at Silicon Valley Bank.?The Arora Report has been scouting for opportunities for our members to make money by shorting banks and also buying long banks that benefit from competitors failing.
The First Republic deal shows that there is no reason for other banks to step up to buy a failing bank.?If regulators are forced to seize the bank, then potential acquirers can buy the assets on the cheap.
Powell was masterful making it difficult for momo gurus to twist his words to run up the stock market.?Nonetheless. momo gurus will try, let’s see what they come up with.
Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims came at 242K vs. 245K consensus.
Productivity
The antidote to inflation and a potential recession is higher productivity.?Unfortunately, the data just released shows that productivity is falling, not increasing.?Q1 productivity came at -2.7% vs. -0.1% consensus.
Unit Labor Cost
There is disappointment for those who think inflation is behind us.?The just released new data shows that unit labor cost increased by 6.3% vs. 5.5% consensus.
European Central Bank
European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points.?The main interest rate is now at 3.25%.?In The Arora Report analysis, unlike the Fed, which is likely pausing, ECB is likely to continue raising rates.?In our analysis, the terminal rate is likely to be 3.75% – 4% in Europe.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? stocks in the early trade.
Gold
Gold is seeing buying on the potential?PACW?failure.
The momo crowd is ?? gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is seeing buying on the potential?PACW?failure.??
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2044, silver futures are at $25.81, and oil futures are at $68.84.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4098 as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.
DJIA?futures are down 80 points.
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FED DECISION AHEAD – DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT INTERPRETATIONS OF A PAUSE
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Fed Decision
Please?click here ?for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
ADP
ADP?is the largest private payroll processor in the country.?It uses its data to give a glimpse of the employment picture ahead of the jobs report that will be released on Friday.
ADP?data is very strong.?Employment change came at 296K vs. 142K consensus.
领英推荐
Russia
Russia is claiming that Ukrainian drones attacked the Kremlin.?Putin is safe as he was apparently not in the Kremlin.?Ukraine denies the attack.
The stock market is oblivious, but prudent investors should keep a close eye in case Russia retaliates in a significant manner.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
Gold??
Gold is being bought on fears of more problems in banks. Interestingly, the stock market does not seem to care.?
The momo crowd is ?? gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil??
Iran has seized a second oil tanker.
API crude oil inventories came at a draw of 3.939M?barrels vs. consensus of a draw of 1M?barrels.
Right now oil is being sold on recession fears.?Interestingly, the stock market is trading assuming no recession.?
The momo crowd is selling oil in the early trade.?Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2022, silver futures are at $25.54, and oil futures are at $69.30.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4140?as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.
DJIA?futures are up 42 points.
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AI ROAD KILL AHEAD – MOMO CROWD COUNTS STOCK MARKET CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
AI?Road Kill Ahead
Please?click here ?for a chart of Chegg stock (CHGG)
Note the following:
Eurozone
April CPI came at 0.7% vs. 0.9% consensus.?Core CPI came at 1.0% vs. 1.1% consensus.
The positive sentiment from lower inflation was countered by a survey showing that 25% of eurozone banks have tightened lending standards and 40% of the banks reported falling demand for credit from businesses.
Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia, in a surprise move, increased the key interest rate.?This is generating negative sentiment across the globe.
Layoffs
Morgan Stanley (MS) is laying off 3,000 people as deal making slows.?Citigroup (C) is also talking about layoffs.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? stocks in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is ?? in gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Coinbase (COIN) CEO and other insiders are being sued for selling $1B worth of stock on insider information.?Insiders sold their stock weeks before a big fall.
Bitcoin has given up its April gains.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1996, silver futures are at $24.93, and oil futures are at $74.68.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4175?as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.
DJIA?futures are down 90 points.
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FIRST REPUBLIC SEIZED – SOME MOMO ACCOUNTS WIPED OUT, 162 S&P 500 EARNINGS, FED MEETING
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Momo Crowd Behavior
Please?click here ?for a chart of First Republic Bank (FRC).
Note the following:
China
China Manufacturing PMI came at 49.2 vs. 51.4 consensus.??The weakness in PMI is hitting oil and several other commodities hard.?The stock market is oblivious.??
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade on the seizure of First Republic by the government.??Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
Oil is seeing selling on weak China PMI data.
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2013, silver futures are at $26.18, and oil futures are at $75.39.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4183 as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318. and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.
DJIA?futures are down 22 points.
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