WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: LARGEST IT OUTAGE IN HISTORY, TRUMP’S SPEECH DOES NOT MOVE THE NEEDLE FOR THE MARKET

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.?

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

LARGEST IT OUTAGE IN HISTORY, TRUMP’S SPEECH DOES NOT MOVE THE NEEDLE FOR THE MARKET

Jul 19, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Largest IT Outage

Please click here for a chart of Crowdstrike stock (CRWD).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.? The chart of CRWD stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• A software bug in a Crowdstrike update caused Window PCs, managed by Crowdstrike to go in a restart loop.? This is the largest global IT outage in history.? It is impacting airlines, healthcare systems, banks, and other Crowdstrike customers across the globe.
• The chart shows a big drop in Crowdstrike stock on the outage.
• The chart shows that CRWD stock has made significant recovery as the problem has been identified and has already been fixed for some customers.? The anticipation is that the problem will soon be fixed for most customers.
• In addition to the Crowdstrike issue, Microsoft (MSFT) cloud services, including Microsoft 365 apps had a separate problem overnight.
• These are technical issues, not a cyber attack.
• The foregoing illustrates the risk to the entire world economy from a globe IT disruption.? In The Arora Report analysis, this risk is not included in Wall Street’s models.? In the future, there can be a million times larger disruption.? The Arora Report takes this ever present risk into account in determining the protection band.??
• Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
• There are two earnings of note.
• -- Netflix (NFLX) ad growth is anemic, but the company is raising FY24 revenue growth.
• -- American Express (AXP) beat on earnings but missed on revenues.? AXP intends to make up for slowing consumer spending by spending more on marketing.
• It is worth the reminder, The Arora Report is politically agnostic.? Our sole job is to help investors.
• Going into Trump’s speech, the expectations on Wall Street were that Trump’s speech would advance the Trump trade.? Contrary to expectations, Trump’s speech is not moving the needle on the Trump trade in the early trade.? At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching the Trump trade as the day progresses.
• Here is the reason why Trump’s speech is not moving the needle on the Trump trade.
• -- Those who like Trump appear to consider Trump’s speech as a great speech.
• -- Trump’s detractors appear to consider Trump’s speech as rambling and full of actual errors.
• -- In the early trade, actions by Trump detractors appear to be counteracting actions by Trump supporters in the markets.
• Investors should be aware that in The Arora Report analysis, the probability of Biden backing out has substantially increased since our note yesterday.? The reason is that Biden’s campaign has been able to collect only one quarter of the target from big donors.? The concern that may force Biden out is that at the present rate, Biden would be significantly underfunded compared to Trump going into the election.
• -- Depending upon what happens on the Democratic side, investors need to be mindful that the Trump trade can quickly reverse.
• -- The Arora Report guidance to investors continues to be to separate politics and investing.? It is important to look at the markets with an objective, neutral lens. It is also important to understand that behind much of the commentary in the media about the markets, there is a self-serving agenda that is often not in the best interest of investors.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2400, silver futures are at $29.17, and oil futures are at $80.62.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5599 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5622, 5748, and 5926: support levels are 5500, 5400, and 5256.

DJIA futures are down 117 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.? The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.? If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.? A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.? When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.? High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.? Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

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TRUMP TRADE MAY REVERSE AS PROBABILITY OF BIDEN BACKING OUT INCREASES – WATCH AI SEMICONDUCTORS

Jul 18, 2024

See also? HUGE POST DEBATE UNCERTAINTY FOR INVESTORS, NEW DATA ON FED’S FAVORITE INFLATION GAUGE AND PERSONAL SPENDING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Watch Trump Trade

Please click here for a chart of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.? The chart of TSM stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• TSM is important because it is the largest semiconductor foundry in the world.? More importantly, TSM manufactures nearly all of the advanced AI chips.? Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs are manufactured by TSM.
• The chart shows that the Trump trade caused the upward sloping trendline to be broken.
• The chart shows a gap down on Trump’s comments about Taiwan and China.
• The chart shows that volume was high as the stock fell on Trump’s comments. This indicates that the Trump trade has conviction.
• The chart shows that TSM is attempting a bounce after reporting excellent earnings.
• TSM reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers.? Here are the details:
• -- Over 50% of revenues are coming from AI and advanced chips.
• -- Q2 earnings came at $1.48 vs. $1.41 consensus.
• -- Revenues grew 34.6% year-over-year.? Revenues came at $20.82B vs. $20.33B consensus.
• -- The company guides Q3 revenue of $22.4B – $23.2B vs. $22.64B consensus.
• -- The company guides gross margin in the range of 53.5% – 55.5%.The company guides operating margin between 42.5% – 44.5%.
• RSI on the chart shows that it is not yet oversold.? This indicates that it is too early to step in to buy, even for those who are oblivious to the China risk.
• One result of the Trump trade gaining popularity is that yesterday was the worst day for semiconductors since the fall in semiconductors in March 2020 due to COVID.??
• The Trump trade is not all negative.? As we have previously shared with you, the Trump trade is driving money into small caps and bank stocks.? Of note are extremely positive money flows in Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), bank ETF (KBE) and regional bank ETF (KRE).? IWM and KBE are in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
• It is worth a reminder that The Arora Report is politically agnostic.? Our sole job is to help investors extract the maximum amount of money with the lowest possible risk from the markets.
• The Arora Report shared with you early on that Trump becoming the next president had become the highest probability scenario.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of Biden backing out and Democrats picking a new candidate has risen overnight.
• The take home message for investors is that if Biden backs out, the popular Trump trade may reverse.
• In The Arora Report analysis, to gauge early signs of the Trump trade reversing, investors should watch AI semiconductors such as NVDA, ASML (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), Micron (MU), Arm (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD(AMD) as well as small caps.
• It is important to separate your politics from your investments.? The election is a significant event ahead that can make a major difference to your portfolio.? Our long experience with thousands of individual investors, investment advisors, and money managers has clearly shown that those who develop deeper knowledge do much better compared to those who do not with both groups reading the same signals on the Real Time Feeds.? Investors face a problem that it is very difficult to find objective analysis without an agenda.? The best way to develop deeper knowledge is to listen to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
• Initial jobless claims came at 243K vs. 225K consensus.? This indicates that the jobs picture is beginning to weaken.? Right now, investors like more people getting laid off because to investors it means a higher probability of a Fed rate cut. ?In The Arora Report analysis, right now, investors are oblivious that a weakening jobs picture also means that earnings may not be as good in the upcoming quarters as investors anticipate.? Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.? In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.? Please click here to see how this is achieved.? One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.? Most models on Wall Street are static.? They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Europe

European Central Bank (ECB) is leaving rates unchanged as expected.? Lagarde is saying that there is no pre-commitment to any one rate path.

In The Arora Report analysis, investors should focus on the September rate decision.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) continues to see buying as part of the Trump trade.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2467, silver futures are at $30.58, and oil futures are at $81.07.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5654 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748 and 5926 : support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are down 96 points.

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PRUDENT INVESTORS WATCHING RISK TO AI STOCKS LIKE NVIDIA AND AMD – MOMO MONSTER BUYING ON TRUMP 2.0

Jul 17, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Risk To AI Stocks

Please click here for a chart of ASML (ASML).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.? The chart of ASML is being used to illustrate the point.
• ASML is a Dutch company that provides extreme ultra lithography equipment needed to manufacture advanced semiconductors.
• ASML has a near monopoly on making the most advanced machines.
• The chart shows that ASML stock has run up on AI exuberance.
• The chart shows that ASML stock is falling after the earnings report.
• The chart shows that there is a high probability of the gap being closed.
• If the gap is closed, the support zone shown on the chart will come into play.
• In The Arora Report analysis, ASML earnings were better than the consensus and whisper numbers. In our analysis, the stock is falling due to the Biden administration considering the most severe restrictions on the export of chip making equipment to China.??
• Semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Micron (MU), Arm (ARM), and Applied Materials (AMAT) are falling on the potential China risk.
• Of interest is a report that Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) are helping Chinese companies get Nvidia chips in spite of U.S. sanctions.
• Trump’s rhetoric is fueling more concerns among prudent investors about semiconductor stocks.? Trump appears to be questioning Biden’s commitment to fully defend Taiwan.
• As prudent investors are carefully watching the risks, the momo crowd is oblivious and engaged in monster buying on the belief that Trump will be the next president.
• The Arora Report was early in sharing with you our analysis that the highest probability scenario was Trump becoming the next president.
• Prudent investors need to remember that high probability does not equate to a 100% guarantee.? Things can change very quickly in politics.? Only two months ago, Trump was facing massive legal problems, potential jail time, and a divided Republican party.? In a short time, due to Biden’s debate performance, the Supreme Court granting Trump immunity, and the assassination attempt on Trump, talk shifted from a close election to a Republican sweep.
• At The Arora Report we are making shifts in our portfolios to prepare for Trump 2.0.? We are also mindful that the present euphoria about a Republican sweep is not guaranteed to come to fruition.
• In a historic move, for the first time since 1971, a major index closed 4.4 standard deviations above the 50 day moving average. The index is the Russell 2000.? Russell 2000 is represented by ETF IWM, which is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.? In sympathy, another ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio position Royce Micro-Cap Trust (RMT), representing micro caps, has broken out.
• Money flows are very positive in stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), home builders, and banks, such as Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan (JPM).
• Trump appears to be warning Powell against cutting interest rates before the election.
• The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
• The Fed’s Thomas Barkin and Christopher Wallis will be speaking today.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

See also? WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: CROSSCURRENTS IN THE STOCK MARKET CREATING UNCERTAINTY FOR PRUDENT INVESTORS

Housing Starts

Housing starts came at 1.353M vs. 1.310M consensus.

Building permits came at 1.446M vs. 1.391M consensus.

In The Arora Report analysis, the strength is in multi-family housing and not in single family housing.??

Japan

Japan appears to have intervened to support the yen.? There is a position in yen in ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), MSFT, GOOG, Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** into the strength in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

Gold is seeing buying on a report that Iran had apparently planned an assassination attempt on Trump.?

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is rising on a report that Iran had apparently planned an assassination attempt on Trump.?

API crude inventories came at a draw of 4.44M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) continues to see buying on enthusiasm about Trump.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2478, silver futures are at $31.13, and oil futures are at $81.57.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5660 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748 and 5926: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are down 131 points.

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SMALL CAPS BREAKOUT, 85% PROBABILITY OF A RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER

Jul 16, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Small Caps Breakout

Please click here for a chart of Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).

Note the following:

• ?The chart shows that small caps have broken out.
• The trigger for the breakout is the anticipation of rate cuts.
• The chart shows the breakout is on higher volume.? This indicates conviction.
• RSI on the chart shows that in the short term small caps are overbought.? The pattern shows that a pullback will likely be a buying opportunity.
• The chart shows the 2021 high in small caps.? This level will be a magnet for traders.
• Small cap ETF IWM is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
• In The Arora Report analysis, now there is 85% probability of a rate cut in September.? There is a 35% probability of a rate cut in July.
• Investors should keep in mind two important points about Trump’s VP pick JD Vance.
• -- He is apparently a crypto bull.
• -- He is a China hawk.? He said that China is the “biggest threat.”
• Trump’s pick of JD Vance could mean rollback of climate regulations, more steps against China, and crypto friendly regulations.
• Among notable earnings, Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC). MS reported better than consensus but worse than whisper numbers.? BAC reported better than consensus and whisper numbers.? BAC is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

After aggressive buying over the weekend and yesterday, bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.? Bitcoin bulls now have a consensus of bitcoin reaching $100,000 in short time after Trump picked Vance as his VP.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

See also? MICRON PRESENTS OPPORTUNITY DRIVEN BY AI BUT BE CAREFUL

Gold futures are at $2445, silver futures are at $31.05, and oil futures are at $80.29.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5692 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5748 and 5926 : support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are up 43 points.

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INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION TO MAJOR MACRO ARORA CALL AFTER TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, WHALES BUYING

Jul 15, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Major Macro Arora Call

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that long bonds fell on Trump’s win in the Supreme Court immunity decision.
• The chart shows that long bonds ran up after falling on the Trump immunity decision.? The reason for the run up has been two fold.
• -- Weak economic data.? For details, see prior Morning Capsules.
• -- Wall Street almost unanimously calling for investors to extend fixed income duration, leading to investors rushing to buy longer term bonds.
• The chart shows that long bonds are dropping after the assassination attempt on Trump.
• It is worth a reminder that The Arora Report is politically agnostic.? We are neither for Trump nor Biden.? Our sole job is to stay objective and help investors extract the maximum money out of the markets.
• It is also worth a reminder that investors should separate their politics from investing. For more on this subject, see prior writings from The Arora Report.
• We previously shared with you that the highest probability scenario was Trump winning the Presidency.? In The Arora Report analysis, after the assassination attempt, the probability of Trump winning the presidency has gone up significantly.
• Over a long period of time, The Arora Report has made numerous important macro calls that went against Wall Street consensus.? The record of The Arora Report’s major macro calls is well documented, and to date, they have been 100% correct.
• After the assassination attempt on Trump, there is a new Arora major macro call – reduce the duration of fixed income in your portfolio.? This call is contrary to Wall Street’s consensus of increasing portfolio duration.??
• The maximum duration in a 60/40 portfolio of bonds is being reduced from seven years to five years.? Please scroll down to the “Traditional 60/40 Portfolio” section below for more details.
• We have been sharing with you in the capsules and other posts the changes that are being made now and are likely to be made in the coming months based on the highest probability scenario of Trump being elected as the next president.
• Investors have a difficult task ahead to make proper shifts in their portfolios in a timely manner.? The task becomes more difficult because most of the information in the media is either provided through a political lens or there is another agenda that is not in your best interest. The Arora Report is a rare resource for investors seeking completely objective and highly analytical analysis.
• As shifts occur, time and again, it has been demonstrated that investors with deeper knowledge tend to do significantly better than investors who do not develop deeper knowledge even when both groups are receiving the same signals from The Arora Report.? For those wanting deeper knowledge, listen to the podcast series in Arora Ambassador Club titled “2024 ELECTION AHEAD: SMART MONEY IS PREPARING NOW.”? To get on the waitlist to join Arora Ambassador Club, please click here to fill out the form.
• For investors, the main theme to remember is that Trump’s agenda is inflationary for the economy, but also has the potential to let loose entrepreneurial spirits.??
• A Trump presidency will be positive for AI stocks with the exception of those heavily exposed to China.? A Trump presidency will also be positive for companies engaged in mergers and acquisitions.
• A Trump presidency will be negative for heavily indebted companies.? A Trump presidency will also be negative for Chinese stocks, Mexican stocks, and renewable energy stocks.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

Significant economic data has just been released in China.? The most important is Q2 GDP.? It came at 0.7% quarter-over-quarter vs. 1.1% consensus.? Slowing growth is an impediment to China’s ambition of replacing the U.S. as the world’s number one superpower.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing aggressive buying in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump.? Trump is pro-crypto.? The higher probability of Trump becoming the next president appears to be behind whales aggressively buying bitcoin.? However, investors need to be careful as whales tend to run up bitcoin, getting retail investors excited.? Then, whales unload bitcoin to unsuspecting retail investors.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2417, silver futures are at $30.87, and oil futures are at $82.27.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5686 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5746 and 5926: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400.

DJIA futures are up 216 points.

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