WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: HUMANOID ROBOTS MAY BE BIGGEST PRODUCT EVER, SELL THE NEWS ON TESLA’S WE, ROBOT AND AMD’S AI EVENT

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report .?

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

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HUMANOID ROBOTS MAY BE BIGGEST PRODUCT EVER, SELL THE NEWS ON TESLA’S WE, ROBOT AND AMD’S AI EVENT

Oct 11, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Opportunities In Humanoid Robots

Please click here for a chart of Tesla stock (TSLA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.? The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows that TSLA stock ran up in anticipation of the Cybercab event, dubbed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk as We, Robot.
• The chart shows that TSLA stock hit the top resistance zone and backed off.
• The chart shows a big drop in TSLA stock after the much hyped Cybercab event.
• The chart shows that TSLA stock has now fallen in the premarket, significantly below the lower resistance zone.
• RSI on the chart shows that TSLA stock is now oversold.
• From a technical perspective, the combination of the foregoing is a negative.
• In spite of the sell the news reaction, Musk’s presentation was impressive.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the global revenue opportunity for robotaxis is about $2T, 15 years from now.? Tesla is well positioned to capture a meaningful portion of the $2T market.
• Tesla bulls are delighted by the details given in Musk’s presentation.? However, Tesla bears are highly critical that there were not enough details.
• Musk showed off humanoid robots dancing and pouring drinks.? Musk said that humanoid robots may be the biggest product ever.? In The Arora Report analysis, we agree with Musk.? Of note, is that Apple (AAPL) is hard at work to produce humanoid robots.? For those interested in next level information, listen to the podcasts titled “MAXIMIZING RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS FROM AI IPHONE OPPORTUNITY PART 2 ” and “ROBOTAXIS MAY BE THE BIGGEST ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PLAY .”
• The reaction to Advanced Micro Devices’s (AMD) Advancing AI event has also been to sell the news.? AMD bears point to AMD not naming new customers.
• Inflation at the producer level came inline with expectations. Here are the details:
• -- Headline PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.
• -- Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
• Earnings season has started.? The most important earnings are from the country’s largest bank, JPMorgan (JPM).? JPM earnings are inline with the whisper numbers.? JPM is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long form $34.14.? In the premarket, JPM is trading at $212.72.? This represents a gain of 523%.
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA), and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial ) stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5825? as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926 and 6017: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are down 6 points.

Gold futures are at $2663, silver futures are at $31.55, and oil futures are at $75.30.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.? The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.? If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.? A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.? When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.? High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.? Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

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HOTTER INFLATION BUT JOBLESS CLAIMS CUSHION THE BLOW – SELLING IN NVIDIA AND AI STOCKS

Oct 10, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter Inflation

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market made a new high and is above the support/resistance zone.
• The chart shows there is selling this morning after the release of economic data.
• Most troubling for the stock market is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came hotter than expected.? Of course, as a member of The Arora Report, it is not a surprise to you – we have been writing that inflation may turn out to be stickier compared to what the stock market expects.? The reason there is selling on the release of the CPI data is that it is a surprise to the market as whisper numbers were inline with the consensus.? Here are the details:
• -- Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.
• -- Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.
• On this CPI data, the market would have been down significantly more than what is shown on the chart because the blow from the hot CPI data is being cushioned by newly released jobless claims data.? Initial jobless claims came at 258K vs. 229K consensus.? The sharp rise in initial claims goes against the narrative that momo gurus have been using to persuade investors to buy stocks.? However, temporarily in the early trade, investors are taking comfort in higher jobless claims believing that it will give ammunition to the Fed to continue cutting rates even if inflation is higher.
• On September 26, we wrote:

Did the Fed make a mistake with the 50 bps cut?

• We have been sharing with you the economic data that indicates the Fed may have made a mistake. In the latest news, we are now finding out that several FOMC members were not in favor of a 50 bps cut.? It appears that Powell had to twist arms to push through a 50 bps rate cut.
• -- FOMC minutes show that there was push back from several members against a 50 bps cut.? Several members favored a 25 bps cut.? In The Arora Report analysis, based on FOMC minutes, Powell will have difficulty with further large cuts unless economic data changes.? This is not discounted in the stock market, and thus, is a risk.??
• Later today there is a Treasury auction.? The auction results may move the market.
• We have been sharing with you that Nvidia stock (NVDA) has been experiencing a strong rally due to its AI Summit.? At a time when the expectations in the stock market are that NVDA stock will move to the resistance zone around $140, after the release of the CPI data, there is selling in NVDA stock.? Selling in NVDA stock is bleeding into other AI stocks in the early trade.
• The momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip in the early trade.? The momo crowd is especially buying AI stocks.
• Of note is today is Tesla’s (TSLA) robotaxi day.? TSLA stock has run up in anticipation of Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk saying great things about robotaxis and perhaps robotics and a lower priced Tesla model.? Keep a close eye on TSLA stock.? If what Musk says exceeds expectations, expect TSLA stock to rally towards $300.? On the other hand, if what Musk says is inline with or less than expectations, expect a selloff in TSLA stock.? Whatever happens to TSLA stock will bleed into other AI stocks.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

See also ? SPOT ON ARORA CALL ON BONDS, INSANE DEMAND FOR NVIDIA CHIPS, ANXIETY BUILDS ABOUT ISRAEL AND IRAN

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN) and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5822 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926 and 6017: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are down 85 points.

Gold futures are at $2637, silver futures are at $30.87, and oil futures are at $74.20.

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GOOGLE BREAKUP ON THE TABLE, NVIDIA AI SUMMIT MOVES THE STOCK BUT RESISTANCE AHEAD

Oct 9, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Google Breakup?

Please click here for a chart of Alphabet stock (GOOG).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.? The chart of GOOG stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• One of the concerns about big tech is that big tech has profited from monopolistic practices, and as such, the government will move against big tech.? So far, these concerns have been limited to smart money. The momo crowd has been oblivious and aggressively buying big tech, running the stocks up higher and higher.? The reason is that the momo crowd does not do much analysis.? The momo crowd is driven by momentum and hopium.
• The news is that the Department of Justice (DOJ), in a court filing, has put the breakup of Google on the table.? Previously, the judge had ruled that Google is a monopolist and established its monopoly with illegal practices.
• The chart shows that there has not been much of a reaction to the news.
• The chart shows that previously there was some downward reaction to the news that a judge ordered Google to open the app store to competition.
• Google faces a separate lawsuit threatening the breakup of its online advertising business.
• The chart shows that volume was low on the threat of a breakup and also on the order to open the app store.? This indicates that so far the stock market does not believe the news will harm Google.? This is for two reasons:
• -- There is flawed analysis in the market that the sum of the parts is more than the current stock price.? In The Arora Report analysis, the reason that the belief in the stock market is wrong is because the parts as separate companies will be restricted from continuing illegal monopolistic practices.
• -- The election is only a few weeks away.? The belief in the stock market is that both Trump and Harris will be friendly to big tech.
• Nvidia (NVDA) stock has staged a strong move leading to and in response to its AI Summit.? However, the resistance zone is around $140, only $6 away.? If NVDA stock breaks above the resistance zone, it will be a big positive for the stock market, especially AI stocks.? On the other hand, if this rally fails to break above the resistance zone, it will be a negative.
• There are rumors of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon.? Hezbollah has publicly endorsed ceasefire efforts.? This is leading to selling in oil, gold, and Treasuries.
• FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

Stocks in China experienced another sell-off.? More stimulus news is expected on Saturday.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and GOOG.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

See also ? BIGGEST EVER MICROSOFT BUYBACK, NEW RETAIL SALES GO AGAINST PREVAILING WISDOM, TRUMP CRYPTO PROJECT

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 10.9M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.95M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5804 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926 and 6017: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are up 23 points.

Gold futures are at $2632, silver futures are at $30.62, and oil futures are at $72.48.

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RISING YIELDS AND HIGHER NEUTRAL RATE MAY SPOIL THE PARTY, BIGGEST STOCK MOVES IN YEARS AHEAD

Oct 8, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Biggest Stock Moves Ahead

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

• TLT moves inverse to the yield.? The higher the yield goes, the lower TLT falls.
• The chart shows the move up in TLT in anticipation of Fed rate cuts.
• The chart shows a breakout above the resistance zone.
• The chart shows when the Fed cut rates.
• The chart shows that the spot on Arora call was made on the same day that the Fed cut interest rates.? The Arora call was made in advance of the Fed announcement, giving investors more time to act.? The Arora call was that yields were likely to rise on long bonds, sending TLT lower.? The Arora call was a contrary call squarely going against the prevailing wisdom at that time.? At that time, the following described the landscape.
• -- Technically oriented investors were buying TLT because of the technical breakout.
• -- Macro investors were buying TLT because of the rate cut.? Going into the Fed meeting the consensus was still a 25 bps cut, even though the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut was gaining steam.
• -- The prevailing wisdom in the market was that TLT would go up.
• The chart shows that the breakout failed, and TLT has experienced a significant drop since the Arora call.
• The chart shows that TLT is now getting closer to the top support zone.
• The down move in TLT is remarkable because during this time, the money has been flowing into the safety of long Treasury bonds due to escalating conflict in the Middle East.? In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the Middle East conflict escalation, TLT would have already fallen into the top support zone.
• RSI on the chart shows that TLT is oversold.? An oversold ETF often bounces.
• In The Arora Report analysis, unless the economic data changes or a war breaks out, or the Fed changes its course, any rally in TLT has a 70% probability of failing.? The reason behind this prediction is that irrespective of who is elected, Trump or Harris, the government’s borrowing and spending is going to go up.? Higher borrowing means a larger supply of Treasuries.? A larger supply of Treasuries indicates a higher yield on long bonds.? If the U.S. has a divided government after the election, the borrowing will be less than it will be if either party sweeps.? In the event of a one party sweep, TLT can potentially fall to the bottom support zone.
• Investors should also pay attention to the10 year Treasury yield. ? The 10 year Treasury yield is important because it is the reference rate for computing appropriate PE ratios in most models.? In general, the rule is higher interest rates mean lower PE ratios.? There are two reasons for this:
• -- When interest rates are higher, the value of future earnings discounted to present is lower.
• -- When bonds start paying higher interest rates, they offer more competition to stocks.
• The yield on 10 year Treasuries has risen from 3.68% on the day the Fed cut the interest rate to 4.031% as of this writing.
• Contrary to expectations in the market, mortgage rates have also risen since the Fed rate cut.
• Investors should also pay close attention to the neutral rate.? The neutral rate is the Fed funds rate that is neither restrictive or expansionary.
• -- In addition to the neutral rate, investors should also pay attention to the pace at which interest rates come down to the neutral rate.
• -- The Fed is indicating that the neutral rate might be around 3.4% in 2025.? Previously, the Fed was pointing to a long run neutral rate of 2.5%.
• -- The prevailing wisdom in the market is that the neutral rate is in the range of 2.5% – 3.5%.
• Regarding the neutral rate, The Arora Report has another contrary call.? Unless economic data substantially changes or geopolitical conditions substantially change, the likely neutral rate is higher than the market consensus.? In The Arora Report analysis, the likely neutral rate is 3.25 – 4.25%.?
• The foregoing discussion on the long bond rate, 10 year rate, and neutral rate is very important because in view of The Arora Report analysis and contrary calls, earnings will have to be very robust for the stock market to advance from here and sustain at a higher level.
• In The Arora Report analysis, implied volatility of options on popular individual stocks around earnings indicates that the biggest moves after earnings in recent years in individual stocks are ahead.? This has two practical implications for investors:
• -- This will provide more opportunities for prudent investors who are set up to systematically take advantage of volatility in a proven way instead of being afraid of volatility.
• -- Some of the existing positions in portfolios may be hit hard.? To balance it with stocks that move up significantly, it is important to make sure the portfolio is properly diversified.
• In The Arora Report analysis, prior to the jobs report, the probability of a 50 bps cut after the next Fed meeting was about 30%.? Now, the probability has dropped to 5%.
• Based on The Arora Report proprietary sentiment indicator, sentiment in the stock market is very positive.? S&P 500 at 6000 is the magnet for traders.??
• Based on The Arora Report’s proprietary methodology, numerous short squeezes are taking place, adding to the upside moves in individual stocks.
• There is renewed excitement in AI stocks.? The main reason is that Nvidia’s (NVDA) AI Summit is taking place.
• There is also buying ahead of Advanced Micro Devices’s (AMD) analyst meeting about AI on October 10.? Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) will also highlight its progress on AI during its analyst day on October 10.
• Adding to excitement in the stock market is the upcoming Tesla (TSLA) robotaxi event on October 10.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on October 10.? Headline CPI consensus is 0.1%.? Core CPI consensus is 0.2%.
• Hurricane Milton is barreling towards Florida.? Insurance stocks such as Universal Insurance Holdings (UVE), Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG), and HCI Group (HCI) are seeing selling pressure.? Generator manufacturer Generac (GNRC) is seeing buying pressure, so are roofing stocks such as Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) and Owens Corning (OC).
• Volatility index (VIX) continues to stay high on anxiety about the Middle East.? VIX is elevated at 22 as of this writing.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

See also ? WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: THE ANALYSIS PRUDENT INVESTORS NEEDS AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING

China Disappoints

We have been sharing with you day by day the epic rally in Chinese stocks and the reasons behind it.? Today, at the beginning, hopes were high as Mainland China investors returned after a one week holiday.? Mainland benchmark stock index CSI 300 jumped 11% at the open but subsequently lost some of the gains, finishing up 5.9%.? In spite of the pullback, CSI 300 is up about 30% over the last month.

In Hong Kong, Hang Seng lost 9.41%.? This is the biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis.? Stocks in Hong Kong were trading during the mainland holiday.? The reason for the disappointment is that investors were counting on the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to offer concrete stimulus measures at a briefing.? However, the chair of NDRC Zheng Shanjie did not offer new concrete stimulus steps.? This disappointed traders.

As an actionable item, for those who understand the China risk, the plan continues to be to buy Mainland China ETF (ASHR) and Hong Kong ETF (FXI) when they fall in the recently updated buy zones.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), NVDA, and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5765 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926 and 6017: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are up 68 points.

Gold futures are at $2666, silver futures are at $31.44, and oil futures are at $75.69.

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STOCK MARKET INVESTORS NERVOUS ABOUT POTENTIAL ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRAN

Oct 7, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Potential Israeli Attack

Please click here for a chart of oil ETF (USO).

Note the following:

• ?The chart shows when Iran retaliated by sending about 180 ballistic missiles.? The attack was in response to Israel killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
• The chart shows that oil has continued to rise as anxiety builds about potential Israeli retaliation.
• This morning, the anxiety has spilled into the stock market.
• From our sources, it appears that Israel sees a once in a generation opportunity to attack Iran’s nuclear installations.? The Biden administration and European governments are trying their best to restrain Israel.
• This morning, concern in the stock market is building that if Israel is restrained from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel may attack Iran’s oil infrastructure.? For investors who want in-depth information about how to invest with the Middle East conflict potentially escalating, listen to the podcast titled “Investors Need A Nuanced Approach To The Middle East.”
• After Friday’s strong jobs report, the concern is that if oil prices also rise, the Fed will not be able to lower interest rates.? The stock market’s current valuation is based on lower interest rates.??
• In the early trade, there is selling pressure due to Middle East concerns.
• The yield on 10 year Treasuries has crossed 4%.? This is important because stock market bulls were hoping for yields to fall to about 3.5% by now.? Please see the Morning Capsule from October 3 for details.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. ? Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.? Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.? The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

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