WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: AI ENTHUSIASTS, STOCK MARKET MOMO CROWD, AND THE FED IGNORE HOTTER INFLATION
The Arora Report, Ltd.
The most accurate stock market, gold, and oil analysis in both bull and bear markets - over 100 million page views.
By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report .?
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
OPPORTUNITIES IN SMALL AND MICRO CAPS POST FED SHRUGGING OFF INFLATION
March 22, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Opportunities In Small And Micro Caps
Please click here for a chart of Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) which represents small cap equities.
Note the following:
China
China is allowing its currency to weaken.? Yuan fell below the key level of 7.20 per dollar. This has broad implications for investors.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in AAPL, Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial ) stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2175, silver futures are at $24.83, and oil futures are at $81.24.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5299 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400 and 5500: support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.
DJIA futures are down 9 points.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.? The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.? If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.? When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.? High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.? Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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AI MEMORY SOLD OUT – BLOWOUT MICRON EARNINGS, GOLD OVER $2200 FOR FIRST TIME EVER, APPLE IN TROUBLE
March 21, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
AI Memory Sold Out
Please click here for a chart of Micron stock (MU).
Note the following:
See also ? MOMO CROWD WANTS THE FED TO BOW TO THEM, WHAT HAPPENS TO THE STOCK MARKET IF THE FED DISAPPOINTS?
Apple In Trouble
Apple (AAPL) is in trouble with the U.S. government for violation of antitrust laws.? The Department of Justice is getting ready to sue Apple.? ??
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims came at 219 vs. 216K consensus.
Jobless claims are a leading indicator and carry heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories .? In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.? Please click here to see how this is achieved.? One of the reasons behind The Arora Report’s unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.? Most models on Wall Street are static.? They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.
Switzerland
The Swiss franc is one of the top ten most traded currencies.? In a surprise move, the Swiss National Bank cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%.? SNB has gotten ahead of the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) in cutting rates.??
U.K.
The Bank of England (BOE) has decided to keep its rates at 5.25%.? The hawks at the BOE are no longer advocating for interest rate hikes.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
Gold is trading above $2200 for the first time ever.? Money is rushing into gold as investors try to protect themselves from the Fed apparently losing its resolve to fight inflation.?
The momo crowd is*** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being bought on the change in Fed policy.??
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2209, silver futures are at $25.63, and oil futures are at $81.02.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5312 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5400 and 5500 : support levels are 5256, 5210, and 5020.
DJIA futures are up 123 points.
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MOMO CROWD WANTS THE FED TO BOW TO THEM, WHAT HAPPENS TO THE STOCK MARKET IF THE FED DISAPPOINTS?
March 20, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Fed Quandary
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
See also ? WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: HEAVY ECONOMIC DATA AND FED SPEAK WEEK SHOWS INVESTORS OPPORTUNITIES BEYOND BIG TECH
U.K.
U.K. data often precedes the U.S. data in the same direction.? In the U.K., Consumer Price Index (CPI) came cooler than expected.? Here are the details:
领英推荐
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and positive Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a draw of 1.519M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 0.077M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2156, silver futures are at $24.98, and oil futures are at $81.45.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5238 as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5256, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5210, 5020, and 4918.
DJIA futures are down 57 points.
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NVIDIA TO EXTEND ITS AI DOMINANCE – MOMO TURNS NVIDIA INTO A CASINO – SELL THE NEWS REACTION
March 19, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Extending AI Dominance
Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).
Note the following:
Housing
Housing continues to be strong.? Housing starts came at 1.521M vs. 1.435M consensus.
Building permits came at 1.518M vs. 1.485M consensus.
Japan
Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, exiting negative rates.? Japan was the last country to have a negative interest rate.? BoJ’s dovish commentary indicates that Japan is not about to enter a tightening cycle like the U.S. and Europe.
We have been sharing with you that what the BoJ does will have a major impact on the U.S. stock and bond markets.? In the long term, this is negative for the U.S. stock market. Money was borrowed in Japan at negative interest rates and then invested in the U.S. markets and elsewhere.? With interest rates in Japan now in the positive, less money will flow from Japan into the U.S. markets.
See also ? FED’S FAVORITE INFLATION GAUGE RISES BY MOST IN A YEAR, BITCOIN SOARS, PUTIN’S NUCLEAR THREAT
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is dropping as bitcoin whales take profit and whale memes follow the whales in taking profits.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2161, silver futures are at $25.08, and oil futures are at $82.09.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5198? as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5256, and 5400: support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.
DJIA futures are down 19 points.
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NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG SPEECH MAY DETERMINE COURSE OF AI RALLY – HUANG MORE IMPORTANT THAN POWELL
March 18, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Huang Speech Ahead
Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).
Note the following:
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in AAPL, Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.? Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.? This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2165, silver futures are at $25.45, and oil futures are at $80.93.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5222? as of this writing.? S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5256, 5400, and 5500: support levels are 5210, 5020, and 4918.
DJIA futures are up 63 points.
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