WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: AGGRESSIVE STOCK BUYING BY 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE BELIEVERS, KEY ISM SERVICES DATA
The Arora Report, Ltd.
The most accurate stock market, gold, and oil analysis in both bull and bear markets - over 100 million page views.
By?Nigam Arora?& Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from?The Arora Report?is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of?The Arora Report.?
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Editor’s Note: ISM Services Data came better than expected leading to a rally on Friday.?The Morning Capsule was provided before the data was released.
AGGRESSIVE STOCK BUYING BY 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE BELIEVERS, KEY ISM SERVICES DATA AHEAD
Key ISM Data Ahead
Please?click here?for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is ?? gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Last night, whales dumped billions of dollars of bitcoin.?Mom and pop, who recently bought bitcoin because of whale’s propaganda that bitcoin was going to go to $32,000, are now left holding the bag.?Interestingly, bitcoin held up yesterday during the day, in spite of Silvergate (SI) news. From yesterday’s Morning Capsule:
Silvergate (SI), the bank that lent to crypto companies, said that it needed more time to assess the impact of losses from its loans to crypto companies including whether the bank is viable.?The authorities have been trying to isolate cryptos from the banking system.?The good news is that the major banks are safe because they did not get deeply involved in cryptos.?Nonetheless, investors should keep a close eye on?SI?stock as an indicator.
Bitcoin should have fallen significantly on?SI?news, but bitcoin is being held up because it trades on the whims of the whales and not based on market forces.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ?? as it will depend on ISM and Fed speak, but expect the market to open strongly higher on 200-day moving average buying.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1853, silver futures are at $21.18, and oil futures are at $76.73.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4009?as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.
DJIA?futures are up 152 points.
Protection Bands And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding ?? in cash or treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ??, and short term hedges of ??. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.?The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.?If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.??When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.?High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.?Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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HOTTER EUROZONE INFLATION, MONEY SUPPLY FALLS THE MOST EVER, CONCERN OVER CRYPTO CONTAGION
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Money Supply
Please?click here?for a chart of the?M2 money supply.
Note the following:
Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims came at 190K vs. 197K consensus.?This is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with?inputs in 10 categories.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? stocks in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is ?? gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Silvergate (SI), the bank that lent to crypto companies, said that it needed more time to assess the impact of losses from its loans to crypto companies including whether the bank is viable.?The authorities have been trying to isolate cryptos from the banking system.?The good news is that the major banks are safe because they did not get deeply involved in cryptos.?Nonetheless, investors should keep a close eye on?SI?stock as an indicator.
Bitcoin should have fallen significantly on?SI?news, but bitcoin is being held up because it trades on the whims of the whales and not based on market forces.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1838, silver futures are at $20.89, and oil futures are at $77.73.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 3935?as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3950, 4000, and 4318: support levels are 3860, 3770, and 3630.
DJIA?futures are up 32 points.
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OPTIMISM ON THE BEST CHINA PMI IN A DECADE GIVES IN TO CONCERNS ABOUT ISM DATA
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Best PMI In A Decade
Please?click here?for a chart of China large-cap ETF FXI.
Note the following:
领英推荐
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
There has been aggressive buying in crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) stock.?There is also aggressive buying in bitcoin this morning.?We previously shared with you that this is the most bullish week of the year for bitcoin.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator will depend on ISM data.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1842, silver futures are at $21.08, and oil futures are at $76.58.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 3964?as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.
DJIA?futures are down 76 points.
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WATCH WHAT INVESTORS ARE DOING NOT SAYING, UNEXPECTED INFLATION RISE IN FRANCE AND SPAIN – ECB
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Investor Sentiment
Please?click here?for a chart of healthcare select sector SPDR fund ETF XLV.
Note the following:
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? stocks in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
Gold
The momo crowd is ?? gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is ?? oil in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Historically for bitcoin, this is the most bullish week of the year over the last 12 years.
Let us see if whales try to run up bitcoin this week.
Bitcoin is range bound this morning.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1820, silver futures are at $20.78, and oil futures are at $77.46.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 3995?as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.
DJIA?futures are up 24 points.
?
EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ZERO-DAY OPTIONS MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STOCK MARKET BEARS
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Zero-Day Options Explosive Growth
Please?click here?for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
Durable Goods
Durable goods came at -4.5% vs. -3.9% consensus.
Durable goods ex-transports came at 0.7% vs. 0.1% consensus.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is ?? in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
Gold
The weaker dollar is bringing ?? in gold.
The momo crowd is ?? gold in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is ?? in the early trade.?Smart money is ?? in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is range bound.
Markets
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ??.?This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $1823, silver futures are at $20.77, and oil futures are at $76.04.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 4008 as of this writing.?S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.
DJIA?futures are up 230 points.
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