Weekly Snack with Dave
HOW TO BE POSITIONED FOR THE COMING ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
Our Cyclical Summary Index is exhibiting a pattern of lower highs, a clear sign of a downtrend, which means that it is beneficial to have an overweight position in defensives and an underweight position in cyclicals.
CONFIDENCE CLIPPED
The Conference Board’s version of consumer confidence faltered to a five-month low of 110.5 in February from a downwardly revised 111.1 reading the prior month (was initially reported at 113.8). The present situation subindex was more or less steady at 145.1 while the expectations component slipped from 88.8 to 87.5 (also a five-month low).
THE RUSSIANS AREN’T COMING — THEY HAVE ARRIVED
Putin finally did it, with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine despite all diplomatic efforts and significant sanction threats from the West that will severely damage the Russian economy. The escalation in this Russia-Ukraine file is occurring at a time when risk-on markets were already under significant stress.
领英推荐
NO BOTTOM IN SIGHT FOR CONSUMER BUYING INTENTIONS
Our “pent-down” demand call remains in place, increasing the downside risks to growth and swamping what is left in the cyclical services tank as far as the re-opening trade is concerned.
INVESTING IN EMERGING MARKETS AMIDST A FED TIGHTENING CYCLE
Emerging Market assets, which tend to be hyper-sensitive to shifts in liquidity, are particularly vulnerable to the Fed’s upcoming hiking cycle. But our work shows that there is a wide dispersion in vulnerabilities across individual economies and markets.
These snippets are from Weekly Buffet with Dave, a Rosenberg Research publication that compiles the best articles of the week from Dave’s daily report, Breakfast with Dave. To access the full report, click here to sign up for a free trial.