Weekly Snack with Dave
HUMBUG!
The Grinch totally stole Christmas in 2021. The bright lights that form the economic consensus thought that retail sales would stabilize in December, but the consumer surprised with a 1.9% MoM retail sales setback. If we strip out inflation, retail sales in volume terms plunged 2.4% — the biggest pullback since February 2021.
YEAR OF THE TIGER
2022 will be the year of the “Great Transition.” The pandemic will morph into an endemic, policy tailwinds will become headwinds and it will be recessionary pressures that will dominate media headlines this year.
TIME TO PLAY DEFENCE: GLOBAL LIQUIDITY INCREASINGLY BECOMING A HEADWIND
Global liquidity growth is quickly moving from a tailwind to a headwind, with bearish implications for stocks. It is prudent to exercise caution and reduce the overall risk of the portfolio.
RENTAL ROARS
U.S. housing starts came in much stronger than expected, rising by 1.702 million units in December, a nine-month high and up 1.4% on the month. But the big deal is what is happening in the rental sector — multi-family housing starts soared 10.7% and have been up in each of the past three months. ?
REVISITING OUR TOP INVESTMENT IDEAS BY ASSET CLASS
As shifting monetary and fiscal policy become a drag on growth and earnings, we go over our top investment ideas and recommendations by asset class for investors looking to make changes to their portfolio as we move into the new year.
These snippets are from Weekly Buffet with Dave, a Rosenberg Research publication that compiles the best articles of the week from Dave’s daily report, Breakfast with Dave. To access the full report, click here to sign up for a free trial.