Weekly Snack with Dave
RETAIL SALES — UPSIDE SURPRISE BLUNTED BY DOWNWARD REVISIONS
The June sales provided a hefty upside surprise. The consensus was -0.3% but instead we got +0.6%. Meanwhile, May was more negative than initially reported at -1.7% instead of -1.3%.?Even in nominal terms, and with the June rebound, core retail sales have fallen at nearly a 3% annual rate from the March highs.
A DEEP DIVE ON U.K. STOCKS
With the U.K. entering the fourth and final stage of its re-opening plan, we took a look at the U.K. stock market by examining five different metrics. Our findings reveal that, about half of the time in the past, the U.K. market has been more expensive than it is today.?
A LOOK AT SPREAD PRODUCT IN A LOW RATES WORLD: MUNI’S ARE BEST VALUE; JUNK BONDS ARE THE JUNKIEST
Over the last 16 months, due to accommodative Fed policy, bond yields have been at their lowest levels in decades and as a result spreads have tightened. In this low yield environment, our analysis shows that the top-rated municipal bonds are of best value while junk bonds are the most expensive.
领英推荐
A BLUEPRINT TO NAVIGATING THE MARKETS FOLLOWING THE PEAK IN EARNINGS GROWTH
Earnings per share are expected to increase at a pace of 64% YoY, the strongest pace since the end of 2009. We looked at the historical profit cycle (data back to 1950), and the data shows that investors are better off when EPS growth is hitting a bottom, not a top as is currently the case.
CHINA PUTS PARTY BEFORE PROFITS IN BIG TECH CRACKDOWN
While some may argue to “buy the dip” in Chinese tech given that the digital economy is a powerful secular trend, before doing so it’s important to understand the regulatory and geopolitical risks that could greatly curtail the upside in this space.
HOUSING BUBBLE, TOIL AND TROUBLE
U.S. existing home sales came in just a tad light at 5.86 million annualized units in June. The unsold inventory backlog has gone to a nine-month high of 2.6 months’ as of June. But the ongoing supply-demand mismatch has fueled a home price boom that makes a mockery of the real estate bubble in the mid-2000s and has taken the first-time buyer out of the picture.
These snippets are from Weekly Buffet with Dave, a Rosenberg Research publication that compiles the best articles of the week from Dave’s daily report, Breakfast with Dave. To access the full report, click here to sign up for a free trial.