Weekly Snack with Dave

Weekly Snack with Dave

DATA DISAPPOINTMENT

It looks like the consumer sector spent what it wanted to out of the stimulus checks in one month — March. Because there is no mistaking the pullback in spending in April. Retail sales were flat versus the consensus estimate of +1.0% (though the prior month was revised up to 10.7% from 9.8%).

Read more

PRODUCTION POP — BUT NOT BROAD BASED

Industrial production rose 0.7% in April, following on the heels of the retail sales dud. March was revised up to +2.4% from +1.4% but that made the slowdown more intense. The supply side continues to lag behind the demand side, and this is the “inflation pressure” story for the most part.

Read more

PEAK HOUSING

Starts plunged 9.5% to 1.569 million units (annualized) versus expectations of a 2.0% giveback (to 1.704 million). Everyone blames “supply shortages” — but then why wasn’t this already factored into the consensus forecast if it was so obvious?

Read more

WHERE WILL THE FUTURE GROWTH IN ESG BE?

For investors looking to gain exposure to ESG strategies, there is no shortage of options. Our analysis suggests an emphasis on ESG does not generate positive alpha, but also doesn’t detract from performance — though there is pretty clearly greater concentration risk with ESG indices.

Read more

FOREWARNED IS FOREARMED

In our view, even if things have begun to calm down since the first quarter, a significant cooling in the third quarter is not yet priced-in. For now, markets appear focused on the vaccination progress, re-opening and “pent-up” consumer demand, but the realization that these stimulative elements are behind us could be a major catalyst for risk appetites to fall.

Read more

INVESTORS INCREASINGLY BETTING ON GROWTH AND INFLATION

The message from the equity market has been very clear of late — investors are betting on sectors/industries that are tied to faster growth and inflation and shunning areas of the market that are more defensive in nature.

Read more

A CASE OF BEING CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

While there are some parts of the stock market that can weather the storm better than others in this kind of environment, the reality is that anyone who is bullish on stocks overall because of an inflationary environment better be careful what they wish for. If you do believe in the inflation story, better to go into real assets as opposed to equities.

Read more

These snippets are from Weekly Buffet with Dave, a Rosenberg Research publication that compiles the best articles of the week from Dave’s daily report, Breakfast with Dave. To access the full report, click here to sign up for a free trial.

要查看或添加评论,请登录

David Rosenberg的更多文章

  • Lament of a Bear

    Lament of a Bear

    The bottom line: One can reasonably debate whether the stock market has risen exponentially but there is no arguing…

    39 条评论
  • If You Don't Have a Plan B, You Don't Have a Plan

    If You Don't Have a Plan B, You Don't Have a Plan

    When I left Merrill Lynch in New York back in the spring of 2009 to come back to Toronto and focus more on my family…

    7 条评论
  • It Ain't Over Till It's Over!

    It Ain't Over Till It's Over!

    Thanks, Yogi. There were a few weekend readings that I feel need to be addressed.

    6 条评论
  • Playing With Fire

    Playing With Fire

    Published in Breakfast with Dave -- September 27, 2023 No matter how you slice and dice it, one thing is clear — the…

    4 条评论
  • Cash Is King

    Cash Is King

    Published in Breakfast with Dave -- August 21, 2023 As I gaze at this unprecedented 40-month stretch of outperformance…

    3 条评论
  • No, I'm Not Turning Soft

    No, I'm Not Turning Soft

    As everyone gushes over the +2.4% annualized real GDP growth spurt in Q2, what goes unreported is that this is…

    28 条评论
  • It's All About the Lags

    It's All About the Lags

    Either the financial community is replete with neophytes with no experience that have never lived through an entire…

    8 条评论
  • David Rosenberg: Go Long!

    David Rosenberg: Go Long!

    Interested in receiving more complimentary macro insights like this? Request a free trial of Rosenberg Research's…

    2 条评论
  • David Rosenberg: Do You Believe in Magic?

    David Rosenberg: Do You Believe in Magic?

    Interested in receiving more complimentary macro insights like this? Request a free trial of Rosenberg Research's…

    3 条评论
  • Weekly Snack with Dave

    Weekly Snack with Dave

    BETTER TONE TO JANUARY CONSUMER SPENDING Spending rose a hefty 2.1% MoM (consensus was +1.

社区洞察

其他会员也浏览了