Weekly Rundown - 12.02.23

Reading the UK economic outlook publication released by The National Institute of Economic & Social Research felt a lot like checking the weather forecast - you see what the weather is going to be and then, what it will feel like. The temperatures that you normally see represent the temperature of the air, but this takes no account of how we actually experience the temperature. It is the ‘feels like’ temperature that gives you a better idea about how the weather will actually feel when you step outdoors. Same is true for the nearest UK economic future. It seems that the UK has avoided a technical recession in 2023. However with GDP growth set to remain close to zero in 2023 and real personal disposable income having contracted for four consecutive quarters, it will certainly feel like a recession for many. Based on the projection, one in four British households will be unable to pay for food and energy without using up savings, borrowing or seeking other help in the 2023/24 financial year. Combined with UK savings statistics for 2023, which show that 34% of adults in the UK have either no savings, or less than ￡1000, in their savings account, it is said that it will require more focus on public services in crisis and holding up the level of public investment to help growth prospects. Although just poring money at a public sector in a crisis is not going to be the cure to all its diverse problems. NHS is a relevant example as even with substantially more funding and staff than in 2019, its performance in many areas is still worse than before the pandemic. In an article, Why is the NHS struggling?, Mark Warner suggests that other than the highly debated NHS resource issue, there are other potential explanations for poor NHS performance. Management problems, staff morale, productivity and unpaid overtime, and change in staff mix all playing a role. The situation is getting worse since mid-December last year with the series of strikes over pay with no tangible resolution in sight. The Bank of England said that Inflation is almost guaranteed to come down this year unless there is a unexpected global event, which is the positive news that we all were waiting to hear. The consumer price index is predicted to fall to about 4% by the end of the year from its current level of 10.5%. The interest rates were raised for the 10th time in a row last week, taking Bank Rate from 3.5% to 4%, which is believed to be the last rise. For those who want to understand how come the FTSE 100 is performing at an all-time high, given the backdrop of current economic situation, Jason Hollands explains why UK stock market is not a yardstick for the domestic economy.

Let’s jump to the tech world?- it has been an eventful week. As Googles parent company Alphabet value dropped more than 7% ($100bn) last week, because of a single AI mistake, GE HealthCare acquired ultrasound AI maker Caption Health. Medical technology company is highlighting the solid growth in its ultrasound segment and are planning to embed ?Caption’s AI into their ultrasound devices. Were seeing a lot of hype in AI arena, specifically the news about ChatGPT. It is interesting to watch what it’s application could be in healthcare. With companies like Doximity trying it’s potential to streamline administrative paperwork and articles saying that ChatGPT has the potential to significantly enhance the work of healthcare professionals and improve patient care. AI's ability to assist with repetitive and time-consuming tasks, such as data entry and appointment scheduling, is seen as one of its primary advantages in healthcare. Forbes wrote about what it takes to become a physician and get a medical license in the U.S. One would need to pass a the three-step United States Medical Licensing Examination, which ChatGPT passed without supplementary medical training. The experiment has not yet been peer-reviewed, but it is most certainly intriguing. Here in the UK, the NHS Long Term Plan identify the use of ?AI health technologies as a key approach to meet increasing demand and improve efficiency and to enhance quality. The Regulatory Horizons Council released a report on the regulation of Artificial Intelligence as a Medical Device. It is an interesting read and deserves a separate discussion.