Weekly Review

PV Market News This Week:

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1. Trump rescinds Defense Production Act support for solar manufacturing

US President Donald Trump has issued an executive order undoing a series of actions taken by the Biden administration. The order included removing solar modules, solar module components, insulation, electrolyzes, fuel cells and electric heat pumps from Section 303 of the Defense Production Act (DPA).

In 2022, Biden invoked the DPA to support the production and deployment of the above-mentioned technologies. Invoking the law included a $500 million appropriation, filed under the Inflation Reduction Act, to fund US clean energy manufacturing, including solar panels and heat pumps.

Trump’s executive order said the rescission of solar and other energy efficiency and electrification technologies from DPA status, among other actions, “are necessary to advance the policy of the United States to restore common sense to the federal government and unleash the potential of American citizens.”

The DPA enabled the Department of Energy (DOE) and other federal agencies to invest in clean energy manufacturing facilities and projects.

“With the new DPA authority, DOE can help strengthen domestic solar, heat pump and grid manufacturing industries while fortifying America’s economic security and creating good-paying jobs, and lowering utility costs along the way,” said Biden-era US Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm when the DPA was invoked.

The DPA-related funding included requirements for labor standards, local labor hiring, community benefits agreements and encouragement of investment in low-income communities.

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2. Accuracy Analysis: ECMWF’s AI model for solar forecasting performs well

Global weather models form the foundation of much of the available solar irradiance and power forecasting, and are typically sourced from publicly funded weather agencies, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In late February, the ECMWF added cloud and radiation outputs to their first operational AI-driven weather model, AIFS V1, offering a new kind of forecast for solar radiation forecasting. The AIFS V1 operational release is a pivotal moment for solar energy forecasting as it is the first operational “AI model” to contain cloud cover and solar radiation parameters.

The ECMWF reports a persistent bias, but very good variance metrics. The Solcast data science team have run an early analysis of ECMWF models, including AIFS, against Solcast’s globally validated historical actuals, finding that despite the model being in the early days of development, it is already delivering excellent accuracy.

Accurate, large-scale solar radiation forecasts are crucial for grid firming, helping to balance supply and demand as solar power increases as a share of energy generation. Historically, numerical weather models have focused on temperature, wind, and precipitation, leaving solar irradiance parameters less well-developed. This model takes a totally new approach to modelling, yet is already matching industry standards for accuracy. As the tuning of this model improves, update frequency is increased, and more resources are applied to running this model, it will be fascinating to see how the industry can take advantage of this model’s faster (and cheaper) run time to deliver more accurate probabilistic and ensemble forecasts.

AIFS currently operates at a six-hour temporal resolution, coarser than IFS’s hourly output. Despite this, its deep learning architecture makes it much faster to run, meaning that as it improves it will likely become a valuable model input for rapid and short-term forecasting. This conclusion is based on the below analysis, completed by the Solcast Data Science team, comparing forecast performance of the AIFS model against two other well regarded global weather models over the several weeks since the model was published.

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3. Solar wafer prices trend upward as China’s domestic demand surges

FOB China prices for G12 wafers remained stable this week, with Mono PERC G12 wafers priced at $0.208 per pc and n-type G12 wafers at $0.196/pc. In contrast, M10 wafer prices saw an increase, with Mono PERC M10 wafers rising to $0.145/pc and N-type M10 wafers reaching $0.151/pc, reflecting week-on-week increases of 0.69% and 1.34%, respectively.

The price increase in wafers is primarily driven by a surge in domestic solar installation projects in China, resulting in limited export availability. The heightened procurement activity, supported by two new solar power policies set to take effect in May and June, has extended to the wafer segment, significantly boosting wafer demand. Reports indicate a temporary, slight supply tightness, with certain cell manufacturers actively engaging with major wafer suppliers to secure supply commitments.

While the current price trend is expected to remain stable through the second quarter, industry sources cautioned that the implementation of the aforementioned new solar power policies could dampen end-user demand for photovoltaic products in the third quarter, exerting renewed pressure on wafer prices.

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4. Indian PV makers must brace for changing trade landscape

Indian solar manufacturers must prepare for potential disruptions from Chinese price competition and possible US tariffs on Indian goods. To navigate shifting trade conditions, they need to diversify markets, expand domestic production, and improve product quality, said a new report by Rubix Data Sciences, a risk management and monitoring platform.

Recent US tariff hikes on Chinese solar-grade polysilicon, silicon wafers, and PV cells – now totaling 60% – present both opportunities and risks for India's solar industry, the report said. With the United States accounting for more than 90% of India's solar module exports in fiscal year 2024, manufacturers such as Waaree Energies, Adani Solar, and Vikram Solar could benefit as Chinese competitors face higher costs.

Stronger access to the US market could drive further export growth. However, India relies on China for more than half of its PV cell and module components, particularly polysilicon and wafers. If China diverts excess supply to India at lower prices to offset U.S. losses, domestic manufacturers may face margin pressures and intensified price competition.

The United States has also signaled potential reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods starting in April 2025, which could weigh on India's solar exports, the report said. Higher tariffs would erode the cost advantage of Indian solar modules in the US market, posing a challenge to the industry's rapid export expansion.

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5. BYD launches its first integrated home storage system

BYD Energy Storage, a unit of Chinese conglomerate BYD, has launched what it claims to be its first integrated storage system for residential applications.

The Battery-Box HVE system is being sold in combination with either a single-phase hybrid inverter or a three-phase device.

The storage system is available in two versions with capacities of 4.29 kWh and 6.45 kWh. The smallest model measures 345 mm x 660 mm x 140 mm and has a weight of 42.1 kg, while the largest system has a size of 499 mm x 660 mm x 140 mm and weighs 61.1 kg.

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6. Germany deploys 1.53 GW of PV in February

Germany’s Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) reported that the country added about 1.53 GW of new PV systems in February, which compares to around 1.23 GW in January and 1.24 GW in February 2024.

Of the new capacity deployed in February, 24 MW comes from balcony PV systems, while another 402 MW derives from rooftop installations. Another 967 MW comes from ground-mounted projects and 13 MW from other project typologies.

The cumulative capacity reached around 102.3 GW at the end of February.

According to updated data, Germany added around 16.73 GW in 2024.

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7. EU launches partnerships to strengthen PV, advanced materials, textiles

The European Commission has introduced three new European Partnerships under Horizon Europe to bolster the continent’s technological leadership, industrial resilience, and sustainability. The initiatives will support PV, advanced materials, and textiles, with a combined investment of nearly €1.1 billion from the European Union and private sector by 2030.

The European Partnership for Innovation in Photovoltaics aims to expand Europe's PV manufacturing capacity and build a more resilient supply chain, aligning with the European Green Deal, REPowerEU plan, and the 2023 Renewable Energy Directive. The European Union and private partners will each invest up to €240 million from 2025 to 2030 to strengthen Europe's position in the global solar market and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

The European Partnership for Innovative Advanced Materials will focus on developing cutting-edge materials that enhance industrial competitiveness and sustainability. The initiative seeks to accelerate the industrial adoption of safe and circular economy-friendly materials. The European Union and private sector will each contribute up to €250 million by 2030.

The European Partnership for Textiles of the Future will drive sustainability and circularity in the textile industry, supporting digital innovations and new business models. It aligns with the EU Strategy for Sustainable and Circular Textiles and aims to enhance Europe's strategic autonomy. The European Union and industry partners plan to invest up to €30 million each from 2025 to 2030.

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8. Solar to take lead as India targets 500 GW of renewables by 2030

India has set an ambitious goal of achieving 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, a commitment that aligns with its pledge at COP26 to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. Among various renewable energy sources, solar power is poised to play a leading role in realizing this target.

With favorable geographic conditions, policy support, and technological advancements, India is well-positioned to accelerate its solar energy deployment.

India’s solar energy sector has witnessed exponential growth over the past decade, driven by government initiatives, private sector investments, and a growing demand for sustainable energy solutions. As of Feb. 28, 2025, India’s installed solar capacity stands at approximately 102.57 GW, contributing significantly to its renewable energy mix.

To meet the 500 GW target, solar energy will need to contribute nearly 300 GW, highlighting its critical role in the nation’s clean energy transition.

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9. Morocco could hit almost 3 GW of solar by 2028, says SolarPower Europe

Morocco could reach 2.97 GW of installed solar capacity by 2028, according to a new report from SolarPower Europe.

The medium-case forecast appears in the “Morocco: Solar Investment Opportunities” report, backed by the Global Solar Council (GSC) and Moroccan renewables association Cluster EnR. A high-growth scenario projects that capacity could rise to 4.35 GW by 2028.

SolarPower Europe attributed the market’s “moderate development” to Morocco’s focus on concentrated solar power, delays in project development, and grid integration challenges.

Morocco’s strong solar potential is partly due to its high solar exposure and available land, said the report. It noted the country’s ongoing energy sector reforms, which have opened much of the market to private investment.

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10. Are stakeholders ready for the segmental shift transpiring in the European PV and battery storage markets?

Europe’s photovoltaic (PV) and Electrical Energy Storage (EES) markets are undergoing a fundamental transformation. While small-scale PV and EES projects have historically driven market growth, there is a distinct and gradual shift toward commercial & industrial (C&I) and utility-scale projects.

The shift away from small-scale residential PV projects is driven by several macroeconomic and policy factors. First and foremost, the pull-forward effect of the war in Ukraine. The conflict accelerated demand as governments, businesses, and households rushed to secure energy independence amid soaring electricity prices and disrupted fossil fuel supplies. Emergency policy measures, expedited permitting, and high economic incentives further condensed expected growth into a short period. This in turn meant that fewer new customers were in the market in 2024, leading to slower demand for premium brands that rely on first-time buyers. Furthermore, with module prices dropping and markets becoming more price-competitive, many consumers opted for lower-cost alternatives rather than premium systems.

According to EUPD Research’s 2024/2025 Germany PV & EES InstallerMonitor? report, based on a survey conducted with 374 German installers, the decline in module prices affected installation companies, too: 18% declared that they were adversely affected by the price drop, while another 19% stated that they faced both negative and positive effects.