Weekly Review

PV Market News This Week:

1. Global module prices trend upward in Q2

China: The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon 600 W modules from China, rose 1.16% to $0.087/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with higher price indications between $0.082 and $0.090/W. FOB China Mono PERC module prices remained stable at $0.085/W with indications between $0.081 and $0.088/W.

Q2 2025 loading cargoes rose 1.16% to $0.087/W, with higher values between $0.082 and $0.090/W, while second-half 2025 loading prices were stable at $0.086/W, with indications between $0.085 and $0.090/W. Q1 2026 prices fell 1.15% to $0.086/W, amid weaker indications from $0.082 to $0.090/W, while second-quarter 2026 modules were assessed at $0.085/W.

Europe: DDP Europe TOPCon 600 W module prices rose by 1% on the week to €0.100 ($0.11)/W, with indications between a low of €0.095/W and a high of €0.108/W for Tier 1 panels.

In contrast, EXW Rotterdam (Western Europe) TOPCon 450W module prices fell by 0.96% and were reported at the average price of €0.103/W with indications between a low of €0.095/W and a high of €0.110/W for Tier 1 panels.

United States: The spot price for TOPCon 600 W modules DDP U.S. was assessed this week at $0.263/W, down 0.38% from last week, while the spot price for Mono PERC 450 W modules EXW rose 0.63% to $0.319/W.

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2. Tilt angle has greatest impact on power losses caused by soiling

A research group led by scientists from China’s Northeast Electric Power University (NEEPU) has analyzed the performance of dusty PV modules under varying irradiance intensities and tilt angles. Furthermore, the group was able to create a model to predict maximum power loss based on irradiance intensity, tilt angle, and dust deposition density.

Per the results, dust deposition density has a more substantial impact on the average short-circuit current, average open-circuit voltage, and average maximum power under high irradiance levels, while its effect on average conversion efficiency is relatively weaker. The differences in those parameters among various other conditions are not significant.

“When inclined at an angle of 60° with an irradiance of 1,000 W/m2, the relative short-circuit current, relative open-circuit voltage, relative maximum power, and relative conversion efficiency of a PV module with dust deposition density of 10.13 g/m2 are 62.3%, 89%, 61%, and 61%, respectively,” they found. “The relative short-circuit current, relative maximum power, and relative conversion efficiency increase with the irradiance while decreasing with the dust density and tilt angle. However, the relative open-circuit voltage decreases with the irradiance, dust density, and tilt angle.”

In addition, the academic team investigated different prediction models for maximum power loss and found a quadratic model that yielded the most accurate results. “It uses irradiation intensity, tilt angle, and dust deposition density as independent variables. The tilt angle has the most significant impact on the maximum power loss rate, followed by irradiance intensity, while the effect of dust deposition density is minimal,” they explained.

The results were presented in “Experimental study on the losses of dusty PV modules considering irradiance levels and tilt angles,” published in Energy Reports. The research was conducted by scientists from China’s Northeast Electric Power University and Datang Xinjiang Power Generation.

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3. U.S. residential solar declined 31% in 2024

The residential solar industry in the United States experienced one of its most difficult years in recent memory as installations nationwide declined 31% compared to 2023.

Last year was predicted to be a year of recovery off the slowed growth of 2023, but challenges persisted. Chief among those challenges were higher-for-longer interest rates, state policy changes like cuts to net metering in California and stabilizing natural gas and electricity prices. The California market installed the most solar in 2024 but retracted 45%.

Installers suffered from financier instability, customer acquisition and other soft cost issues and constrained cash flows. Some major installers did not survive 2024. This included the bankruptcy of SunPower and Titan Solar Power. Sunnova Energy is now another major player in the market facing turmoil and potential bankruptcy.

Illinois ranked third in residential solar installations in 2024, rising the ranks and standing as one of the few states to have growth. However, this growth ramp may be limited, as the bump was largely attributed to customers rushing in to secure better net metering terms with their utility. The state transitioned away from net metering on Jan. 1, 2025.

Wood Mackenzie downgraded its outlook for residential solar this year and beyond. In 2025 it cut recently its growth forecast by 15%. However, Wood Mackenzie expects a modest recovery in 2025 with 9% year-over-year growth.

4. Weak La Ni?a patterns shape North American solar in February

North America’s solar irradiance patterns in February followed a weak La Ni?a-like distribution, with moderate deviations from average irradiance. According to analysis using the Solcast API, most of Mexico and the Southwest saw above-average irradiance, while the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes had cloudier conditions that reduced solar potential. In the East, winter storms lowered irradiance further, but the Northeast avoided the worst effects and saw sunnier-than-average conditions.

The overall irradiance distribution reflected the influence of the weak La Ni?a pattern that emerged in the tropical Pacific during 2024 and persisted into early 2025. Mexico benefited from favorable conditions for PV generation, with average daily irradiance exceeding 5 kWh/m2, and regions north of Mexico City seeing a 10% increase above historical norms. This sunnier-than-average trend extended northward into Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and southern Utah, all of which recorded similar above-average irradiance levels. Western Canada also experienced sunnier conditions than usual, though the seasonal constraints of winter kept daily irradiance modest at just over 2 kWh/m2.

By contrast, and in line with winter La Ni?a patterns, California and the Pacific Northwest faced unfavorable conditions for solar generation, with persistent moisture-laden air off the Pacific leading to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Irradiance levels were 10% below average in these areas. The Great Lakes region fared even worse, with irradiance dropping by 15%, reflecting increased cloudiness and snowy conditions.

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5. France sharply reduces PV targets in draft energy program

The government has just launched a final public consultation on the third Pluriannual Energy Program (PPE 3) — the main strategic document guiding France’s energy transition — for the period 2025-2035, open until 5 April. What was feared by many stakeholders has been confirmed, as the targets for photovoltaic energy in the new version have been revised downwards. For 2035, they have been reduced from 75 GW to 100 GW (in the draft PPE 3 version of November 2024) to 65 GW to 90 GW (in the draft version of March 2025). For 2030, the goal would be 54 GW (compared with 25 GW installed to date), i.e. the low end of the 54 GW to 60 GW range submitted for consultation at the end of 2024.

Furthermore, as the law firm Gossement points out in an analysis of the text, this objective is now broken down between categories of installations (rooftop and ground-mounted): small and medium-sized rooftop arrays make up 41%; small ground-based installations 5%; and large installations making up 54%, with 38% ground-mounted and 16% rooftop.

Within this breakdown of the overall development target by category of installation, the PPE 3 does not include a target for the development of agrivoltaic and agricompatible installations.

Commenting on the changes in the latest PPE 3 draft, industry association Enerplan stated, “Lowering our ambitions for solar energy today, when it is available, competitive and can be rapidly deployed, would send out a new signal that contradicts our stated ambitions and would be out of step with the issues at stake at the time. France does not have ‘too much’ low-carbon energy: it still relies on fossil fuels for 60% of its consumption.”

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6. Rooftop solar could supply two-thirds of global power

Covering the world’s rooftops with solar panels could provide 65% of global electricity, according to the findings of new research from the University of Sussex.

The research paper “Worldwide rooftop photovoltaic electricity generation may mitigate global warming,” available in the journal Nature Climate Change, used geospatial data mining and artificial intelligence models to show that rooftops cover approximately 286,000 km2 of the globe – an area similar to the size of Italy.

It then calculates that if every suitable roof was used, rooftop solar could generate 19,500 TWh of electricity per year, allowing for fossil fuel-based electricity to be replaced almost entirely, when coupled with load shifting and battery-electric storage.

The researchers then used advanced climate models to stimulate the impact of widespread solar deployment, concluding that rooftop solar could contribute to reducing global temperatures by between 0.05 and 0.13 degrees before 2050.

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7. Nigeria plans 1.2 GW solar module assembly plant

Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency (REA) has signed an agreement with Lagos-based renewables developer Oando Clean Energy for a 1.2 GW solar assembly plant.

According to a statement on REA’s website, the project will encompass the construction of an off-grid power plant, mesh electricity generation, interconnected power grid and solar manufacturing power plant.

President and CEO of Oando Clean Energy, Ademola Ogunbanjo, said the company will roll out the first 600 MW line next year. Ogunbanjo also added that the project will be the first solar modular assembly plant with a recycling line in Africa.

The plant forms part of the $950m Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) project, which is being financed by the World Bank and Japan International Cooperation Agency. The project is planning to stimulate local capacity for producing solar materials in Nigeria, provide electricity to 17.5 million Nigerians and turn the country into a “renewables hub.”

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8. Chinese PV Industry Brief: Huaneng, TBEA announce GW-scale renewables clusters

TBEA announced plans to invest in large-scale renewable energy projects, including a 1 GW solar power plant with battery storage and a 2 GW wind power project, also paired with energy storage. The investments will be led by two of its subsidiaries, with total capital requirements of CNY 3.5 billion and CN Y6.66 billion, respectively. Of this, CNY 1.05 billion and CNY 1.94 billion will be financed as equity, with TBEA contributing 80% of the funds and the remaining 20% to be raised from strategic investors. The remaining project costs will be covered through syndicated bank loans. The solar plant is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, while the wind project is scheduled for completion by the end of 2026.

China Huaneng signed a framework agreement with the Ewenki Autonomous Banner government in Inner Mongolia for a 2.7 GW integrated renewable energy project. Located in the Honghuaerji Forestry Bureau area, the project is expected to require an investment of CNY 13.5 billion. The first phase, with an estimated CNY3.5 billion investment, will see the construction of a 1GW solar project set to begin in 2025. The second phase, with a CNY 10 billion investment, will include a 1.7 GW wind-solar hybrid power plant and associated energy storage facilities, subject to policy and market conditions. Once fully operational, the project is expected to generate approximately 7 billion kWh of green electricity annually, reducing coal consumption by 2.3 million tons and cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 7 million tons per year.

JA Solar signed a 260 MW module distribution agreement with Exel Solar, a leading Mexican photovoltaic distributor, during Mexico's Solar and Energy Storage Exhibition. Under the agreement, JA Solar will supply 260 MW of its DeepBlue 4.0 Pro modules, while Exel Solar will distribute them across Mexico. The partnership aims to accelerate the growth of the local solar market.

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9. UK regulator reveals criteria for long-duration storage

Details of a new cap-and-floor scheme to support long-duration energy storage (LDES) in the United Kingdom have been revealed, including significant decisions on eligibility criteria.

Ofgem has confirmed that the cap-and-floor scheme will be open to LDES assets that can provide power for eight hours or more, up from a six-hour duration put forward in earlier proposals. The energy sector regulator has also committed to a 100 MW minimum capacity for its “stream 1” application round, followed by a 50 MW minimum for “stream 2”.

The stream 1 round will be open to well-established storage technologies that meet Ofgem’s technology readiness nine (TRL9) criteria. The second will be open to TRL 8 technologies.

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10. BloombergNEF expects up to 700 GW of new solar in 2025

The world may add about 698 GW of new PV capacity in 2025, BloombergNEF said in a new report.?That figure would compare to 599 GW in 2024, 444 GW in 2023, and 252 GW in 2022.

BloombergNEF said it expects China to remain the largest PV market this year, followed by the United States, India, Germany, Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, and Italy.?The firm also projects global PV additions could reach 753 GW in 2026 and 780 GW in 2027.

The report's authors warned that many mature PV markets are now facing grid capacity constraints, falling spot market power prices, and declining homeowner interest in rooftop systems.