Weekly Oil Trading Market Report - 2025 - 10th to 14th March

Once again this week, International diplomacy ruled oil prices as intense discussions between the United States, European leaders, Ukraine and Russia took p[lace on how to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine.?

Diplomacy is one thing with Donald posting optimistic messages suggesting talks are moving ?in the right direction, but when Russian President Putin has a different view on the terms of any ceasefire agreement that diplomacy can quickly turn into a blunt no thank you!

As Wednesday dawned Gold was heading to a new record price, whilst oil prices were under pressure and heading for a new 3 year low.

ICE Brent slipped below $70 a barrel yet again and looked very vulnerable to a sell off to lower levels.

However, time and again oil markets inevitably get a shot in the arm from somewhere and this time it was the American EIA weekly inventory report which saved oil prices from a new 3 year low.

The EIA statistics showed gasoline inventories had dropped by a surprising 5.737 million barrels in the space of just 7 days, whereas crude oil inventories increased by just shy of 1.5 million.

As a result crude oil markets recovered all of their losses on the week having fallen lower after the International Energy Agency had chipped in their monthly report on Thursday predicting doom and gloom for oil demand for more or less the balance of 2025.?

Their report is seemingly underpinned by OPEC’s readiness to increase crude oil production beginning in April by 138,000 barrels a day for the balance of 2025 (but always accompanied by that catchy little phrase which translates into something similar to ?“but we have the right to change our minds anytime we like!”)!

As all the news unraveled, Crude oil prices dithered, gasoline roared higher, poor ICE gas oil became the victim of a monthly roll and lost $15/mt overnight, naphtha hung in there, Jet fuel prices firmed a touch versus Platts, and LPG staged a price recovery to finish the week higher, something that which looked impossible after a heavy hit on Tuesday!?That monthly IEA report was pretty negative and it’s certainly a damp spot in the market that won’t go away.?

The key statements from the IEA read as follows… “The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the United States and several other countries.

New US tariffs, combined with escalating retaliatory measures, tilted macro risks to the downside.?Recent oil demand data have underwhelmed, and growth estimates for 4Q24 and 1Q25 have been marginally downgraded to around 1.2 mb/d, with data for both advanced and developing markets coming in below projections”.

That wasn’t a good start if your strategy was to forward buy, however, their?final paragraph was even less palatable reading… “Risks to the market outlook remain rife and uncertainties abound. Our current balances suggest global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600 kb/d this year. If OPEC+ extends the unwinding of output cuts beyond April without reining in supply from members currently overproducing versus their targets, another 400 kb/d could be added to the market”

If the first paragraph didn’t send the trade running for the sell button, the final one did!

Their reports are excellent but often biased to the bearish side, so no need to panic just yet!!

“Uncertainties abound”, well that certainly hit the nail on the head!

As Sunday morning dawned new tensions have rolled into play…. the discussions between Israel and Hamas relating to the next stage of releasing hostages versus releasing Palestinian prisoners have hit a wall, and could easily stabilise oil prices for the coming days, but not quite as much as Sunday’s news of a heavy U.S. strike on Yemen's Houthi rebels carried out on Saturday night as payback (according to President Trump) for attacks on U.S. interests in the Red Sea region.?

The Houthis reported a series of explosions on Saturday evening in Sanaa and in the northern province of Saada - the rebels' stronghold on the border with Saudi Arabia.

The Iranian-backed rebel group, which considers Israel its enemy, controls Sanaa and the north-west of Yemen, but it is not the country's internationally-recognised government.

Unverified images show plumes of black smoke over the area of Sanaa's airport - which includes a military facility.

In other news ….

Five years after an Exxon-led consortium produced the first oil offshore Guyana, the country is pumping more than 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and has become South America’s fifth-largest oil exporter. Guyana and ExxonMobil expect oil production to jump to 1.3 million bpd by 2030, which would double the current output volumes.

With higher production came a surge in Guyana’s crude oil exports, the most in recent years.

More than half of the cargoes loaded are going to Europe, where refiners have been increasingly appreciating Guyana’s crude grades—Liza, Unity Gold, and Payara Gold. Gold seems the latest buzzword !!?

Since the end of 2019, when Guyana exported its first crude oil cargo, the country has become the fifth biggest exporter in Latin America, after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia.

It was gold all the way this week, Guyana gold is the new kid on the block whilst that old stager yellow gold closed at an astonishing $3001 an ounce on Friday night,…. Maybe it’s time to blow the dust off the jewellery box!!

This week’s closing guide prices:

ICE Brent 70.58 (-0.22)

WTI 67.18 (+0.14)

ICE gas oil 645.25 (-26.25)

Euro Mogas swaps 659.25 (+27.75)

Euro Naphtha swaps 607.50 (+4.50)

Nymex gasoline 2.1487 (+4.00 cents a gallon)

LPG swaps 540.00 (+8.50)

OPEC basket 73.34

Credit - Robert Haynes - Silvergreen Energy Ltd.