Weekly Market Updates
Vol 8. Feb 24, 2025
Global Economic Headlines: Week in Review (Feb-17 to 21)
Japan's Economic Expansion Surpasses Expectations
Japan’s economy grew beyond analysts’ expectations in the fourth quarter, driven by a surge in exports. Preliminary government data released Monday showed GDP expanded 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the 0.3% forecast by economists polled by Reuters. This follows a 0.4% growth in the previous quarter. While exports bolstered GDP, domestic demand remained weak, contracting slightly. Capital expenditure increased by 0.5%, falling short of the projected 1% rise.
South Korea Suspends DeepSeek Chatbot
Over Privacy Concerns South Korea has halted downloads of DeepSeek’s AI-powered chatbot R1 amid a review of the company’s privacy standards. The country’s privacy watchdog announced Monday that the chatbot was removed from Apple’s App Store and Google Play in South Korea after the Hangzhou-based startup admitted to violating personal data protection regulations.
Malaysia's Economy Records 5.1% Growth in 2024
Malaysia’s economy grew 5.1% in 2024, driven by strong domestic demand and investment, countering a downturn in the commodities sector, according to the country’s central bank. Bank Negara Malaysia reported a 5% GDP expansion in the fourth quarter, down from 5.3% in the third quarter but exceeding an advance estimate of 4.8%.
UK Inflation Accelerates in January
The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year in January, up from December’s 2.5%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released Wednesday. The figure exceeded market expectations of 2.8%, remaining well above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target.
Alibaba Shares Soar on Strong
Quarterly Results Alibaba shares surged in Hong Kong on Friday, climbing as much as 11% before settling at a 9.18% increase. The Chinese tech giant’s strong performance was fueled by growth in its cloud intelligence and e-commerce segments. Investment firm Nomura remains optimistic about Alibaba’s outlook, citing continued trade-in subsidies as a key driver for the company’s e-commerce business in early 2025.
U.S. Declines to Co-Sponsor UN Resolution on Ukraine
The United States is refusing to co-sponsor a UN resolution marking three years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a move signaling a potential shift in its stance. Diplomatic sources told Reuters that Washington also opposed wording in a planned Group of Seven (G7) statement condemning Russian aggression. The decision reflects growing tensions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been pursuing negotiations with Russia without Ukrain’s involvement.
Indian Firm Exporting Addictive Opioids to West Africa
A BBC Eye investigation has revealed that Indian pharmaceutical company Aveo Pharmaceuticals is illegally manufacturing and exporting unlicensed opioids to West Africa, fueling a public health crisis in countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, and C?te d'Ivoire. The company’s pills, containing the addictive substances tapentadol and carisoprodol, are not approved for use anywhere in the world and pose severe health risks, including breathing difficulties, seizures, and fatal overdoses.
China Seeks to Attract Foreign Investment
Amid Geopolitical Tensions China has unveiled a new action plan aimed at stabilizing foreign investment in response to mounting geopolitical tensions and calls for policy reforms from international businesses. Authorities released the “2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment” on February 19, which outlines measures to facilitate foreign capital investments in telecommunications and biotechnology industries, as well as plans to ease restrictions in the education and cultural sectors.
German Elections: CDU-CSU Wins Largest Share of Votes
Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its allied Christian Social Union (CSU) have emerged as the leading party in the federal elections, according to exit polls from German broadcaster ZDF. The results position Friedrich Merz as the frontrunner to succeed Olaf Scholz as chancellor. The CDU-CSU secured 28.5% of votes, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) claimed second place with 20%, followed by Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 16.5%.
Major Currency movements
EUR/USD:
Significant drop on Tuesday (1.0463), staying low for the rest of the week. Slight rebound on Friday (1.0505), but still much lower than Monday. Euro weakness or USD strength due to economic data or policy changes.
Forecast: Could see further weakness unless the Eurozone shows signs of economic recovery.
GBP/USD:
Small fluctuations, but a steady increase, closing at 1.2673 on Friday. Strong UK economic indicators or weak USD.
Forecast: If momentum continues, GBP/USD may test higher resistance levels.
AUD/USD:
Relatively stable, with a slight rise towards the end of the week.
Forecast: If risk sentiment improves, AUD could gain further. Otherwise, it may stay range-bound.
USD/CHF:
Small fluctuations, closing slightly lower on Friday. Safe-haven demand impacting USD/CHF movements.
Forecast: Likely to remain in a tight range unless risk sentiment shifts.
USD/JPY:
Gradual decline, with a sharp drop on Thursday (150.3400) and Friday touched 150.17. Weakening USD or stronger Yen due to risk aversion.
Forecast: If US yields decline, JPY may strengthen further. Otherwise, consolidation is likely.
USD/SGD:
Small fluctuations, but mild depreciation in USD/SGD by Friday.
Forecast: Singapore dollar strength could continue if regional economies improve.
USD/INR:
Fairly stable throughout the week, closing near Monday’s level.
Forecast: Likely to remain range-bound unless inflation or RBI policies shift.
USD Index:
Peaked on Thursday (106.9300) before dropping on Friday (106.3000).
Forecast: If the dollar weakens further, other currencies may strengthen against it.
Major Stock Market performance
US Markets (NASDAQ, Dow Jones, S&P 500)
Investors may be cautious, with slight profit-taking by the end of the week.
Forecast: Dow Jones & NASDAQ could see further volatility. Watch for key support levels. Tech-heavy indices (NASDAQ, S&P) remain resilient—good for long-term positioning.
European Markets (FTSE, DAX, CAC 40)
European indices faced resistance after early gains, possibly due to economic data or global market sentiment.
Forecast: Likely to consolidate unless economic data provides a boost.
Asian Markets (Shanghai, Nikkei, Hang Seng, Nifty, Sensex)
Mixed trends—China shows strength, Japan weakens, while India remains stable
Forecast: Nikkei could stay weak; Hang Seng shows upside potential. India’s Nifty & Sensex continue to be stable, suggesting a strong fundamental outlook.
Australian Market (S&P/ASX 200) (8,509 → 8,300)
Forecast: If ASX breaks below 8,280, it could test 8,200 as the next support level. Continued selling in mining and financial stocks may push it lower.
Commodities
Gold ($/Oz):
Gold prices increased throughout the week, peaking at $2,958.09 on Thursday, before slightly dipping on Friday. Global market uncertainty may have supported gold.
Forecast: If inflation fears persist and the USD weakens, gold could break above $2,960 and test $2,980. However, if bond yields rise, gold may see a correction towards $2,920.
Crude Oil (WTI & Brent):
Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose steadily throughout the week, with WTI closing at $72.49 and Brent at $76.47 on Friday. Possible OPEC+ supply adjustments or geopolitical tensions. Global economic recovery might have boosted oil demand. A weaker USD typically supports higher oil prices.
Forecast: Oil prices could rise further if demand outlook remains positive.