WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE September 17th, 2024

This week, the buzz is all about 30-year mortgage rates dropping into the low sixes. This is a sign that the market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts—possibly even a recession. I can't help but dream a little here; lower rates could open up new opportunities for many buyers and sellers alike.

But it's a rocky road. The August jobs report was a letdown, with only 142,000 jobs added, well below the expected 165,000. Even worse, earlier figures from July were revised to 89,000, with unemployment climbing from 4.1% to 4.3%. Some had hoped July was just an anomaly, but August suggested a deeper trend.

Despite the cautious atmosphere, there's a sense of hope. Fannie Mae's purchase sentiment Index edged up to 72.1 in August. Yes, 83% still say it's ti"e to buy," but there is optimism for lower mortgage rates—and maybe even lower home prices—down the road. I've seen this before: during the pandemic, most people thought it was a terrible time to buy, and in hindsight, it turned out to be a golden opportunity.

Home price growth is also slowing. Prices were flat month-over-month in July, although they're up 4.3% year-over-year. Affordability issues and the seasonal slowdown are playing their parts here. CoreLogic has underestimated home price growth over the past couple of years. So, as we look ahead to the next 12 months, it'll be fascinating to see if these trends hold or surprise us yet again.