Weekly Market Review
Michael Acho
Guardian of the Wealth of the Most Productive People on Earth | Creating, Protecting and Distributing Wealth for Clients
?Good afternoon,
?I have repeatedly mentioned in the WMR that I intentionally do not talk about politics. The subject can be divisive and it is never my intention to upset my audience. I do, from time to time, want to encourage my readers to do their own homework and think about things. Especially when I discover situations that don’t always add up, because of course #mathwins. But I don’t want to start any fights.
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That said, I sacrificed a Thursday evening last week to attend a presentation from one of my preferred investment partners, First Trust Portfolios, regarding the state of the upcoming election. Held at a very nice steakhouse, I’ll have the wedge salad and a ribeye please, they brought in a political expert to give us the rundown. A very smart guy who’s been in the political game for nearly 40 years, he gave us some stats. Among other things, it turns out that the nationwide popular vote doesn’t really matter. What matters are only a few precincts in only a few counties in only a few swing states. The 44 other states are going to lean the way they always lean.
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Then he explained that Congress will most likely align with the elected POTUS. They are elected of the same persuasion 96% of the time. Senate not so much. There are 34 senate seats up for re-election this year, only 3 or 4 of them vulnerable to flip sides. He further described various economic sectors and whether they would be bearish or bullish depending upon which side wins. No surprises there, pretty much what you’d expect. For example, electric vehicles and solar power would look better under the blue team and ICE cars and fossil fuels better under the red team.
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He didn’t try to either persuade or dissuade us to one side or the other. His commentary was down the middle and matter of fact. His intention was to help us understand the landscape so that we can make better decisions for our clients. He also said that most of the political conspiracy theories floating around are in fact false. A statement which I found disappointing.
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In summary, here are my takeaways:
1.????? The gentleman who gave the presentation will always have a job because there is always something to talk about in politics. And when he places estimates on outcomes, i.e. “60% chance that this person wins,” that leaves plenty of room to be wrong. Ooops. My bad, there was still a 40% chance that they didn’t.
2.????? It’s only a handful of voters in a handful of places that impact the outcome.
3.????? Polls are not to be trusted.
4.????? Certain segments of the economy and certain industries do better with one side or the other, but that is a short term situation and will inevitably revert back to the mean.
5.????? Politics is one big club, and we ain’t in it. See George Carlin for an explanation.
6.????? I’m not convinced that some conspiracies aren’t true.
7.????? The ribeye was tasty, but next time I’ll order the filet.
8.????? I felt much more informed after the meeting, but no less confused. I’ll keep doing what I do for my clients and their portfolios.
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?My stoplight review worked exactly as planned in a recent meeting.
Routine client progress report and we were able to upgrade his monthly lifetime income. That’s a good meeting. Client had an older annuity that had been doing exactly what we planned for it to do over the years, but now, he’s a little older and the annuity landscape has changed. Send me your annuity and/or insurance policy statements and let’s run them through the stoplight. Always confidential, complimentary and brief.
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Have you seen the story going around about the guy who tips $5, and only $5, on his restaurant meals no matter how much the bill?? He’s getting substantial hate online for what is viewed as his stingy tipping practice. On the other hand, his rationale is that the server does the same amount of work for any meal, regardless of whether it’s a burger and fries or a steak and baked potato. So why should they get a larger tip just because the food costs more? Which I concede is a fair point. Then he further questions, why tip at all? Shouldn’t the delivery of the food to your table be included in the cost of the meal? Another fair point. What do you think?
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In local news, the legendary Hulk Hogan was in town to promote a new beer brand that he represents.
Unfortunately, I didn’t make it out to meet him, but I wish I would have. I was definitely a Hulkamaniac back in the day. In fact, I was there at the Pontiac Silverdome in 1987 with 93,000 of my friends when the Hulkster bodyslammed the 7’4”, 500 lb, 8th Wonder of the World, Andre the Giant at Wrestlemania III.
But Mike, wrestling is fake.
Yep, so are Star Wars and Spiderman. I don’t care if it’s scripted, Babyfaces v. Heels, I enjoy watching 300 lb uber athletes toss each other around the squared circle night after night. Haven’t paid much attention in the last couple of decades, however, but I used to. What are you gonna do when the largest arms in the world come rumblin’ through???
And remind me one day to recant the time I met the Macho Man Randy Savage in person.
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?Speaking of elections, this week’s comedian review is Tyler Fischer’s “Election Special,” filmed at the Comedy Mothership in Austin, TX. In summary, it was ok. That’s it, just ok. Not terrible, but not terribly funny either. It’s only 20 minutes long, so it’s a short watch, and he does do a few chuckle worthy impressions, but it didn’t appeal to me. I am also a fan of Joe Rogan’s Comedy Mothership in Austin, I just didn’t especially care for this show. Tyler did an appearance on Joe’s podcast recently and I liked him better on that than I did in the special. Tyler has some other stuff out there, but this one isn’t great.
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And speaking of Joe Rogan, he has a live special coming up this Saturday night, 10pm EST on Netflix. Here is the 40 second promo clip.
Safe for work.
Joe’s not for everybody, but I enjoy his work. I’ll have my review ready for next week’s WMR.
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And finally, here is your friendly reminder that my half hour virtual office hour is back this Friday. Hop on at noon and ask me anything.
Michael Acho is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
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Join Zoom Meeting
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This week’s chuckle is 60 seconds of Jeff Foxworthy. Women have a lot of questions,
Safe for work.
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LF30 – “It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.” – Thomas Sowell.
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Have a great week and stay healthy.
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This material is for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice.? Links to external content are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. They do not constitute an endorsement or approval by Osaic FA, Inc. nor does the firm receive compensation or remuneration for your access to such content. Osaic FA, Inc. bears no responsibility for the accuracy, legality, or substance of the external content or for that of any links within such content. The opinions expressed are those of Michael Acho and not necessarily those of Osaic FA, Inc. CRN-6845751-073024
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Michael J. Acho, MBA, CFP? Private Wealth Advisor --------------------------------------------------- Osaic FA, Inc. 20505 West 12 Mile Road Southfield, MI? 48076 248-948-5100 direct 248-948-5101 fax 248-933-4339 cell
947-258-0289 texts [email protected]
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