Weekly Market Commentary
Mortgage rates rose last week largely in response to a rally in equities fueled by speculation that a tax cut for businesses will eventually make it through Congress. The rally in equities saw the S&P 500 close at an all-time high.
The focus of this week's data is the advance Q3 real GDP release on Friday. With the Fed rate decision coming up in the middle of next week, we are left without any Fed speakers as they enter their blackout period. However, we can expect the markets to continue to look towards signs of who may be appointed as the next Fed Chair. President Trump has attempted to signal as little as possible ahead of his decision. We can probably expect a final decision late next week after the FOMC Rate Decision. President Trump has stated, “I will make my decision very shortly” and indicated that Janet Yellen is still a possibility, noting “most people are saying it’s down to two (Taylor & Powell). I also met with Janet Yellen…I really like her a lot”, so “I have three people that I’m looking at”.
Economic Calendar for the week of 10/23/2016 to 10/27/2016:
Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Tuesday: Markit Services PMI and Richmond Fed National Activity Index
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Goods Orders, FHFA House Price Index MoM, and New Home Sales
Thursday: Wholesale Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Retail Inventories MoM, and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Friday: LGDP Annualized QoQ, Core PCE QoQ and University of Michigan Sentiment
Key Market Indicators
Week Ending Week Ending Week Ending
(10/20) (10/13) (10/06)
30 YR APOR 3.92 3.95 3.89
10 Year Yield 2.386 2.273 2.359