Weekly Highlights - Corn Leads Grains Higher

Weekly Summary of Our Analysis & Forecasts

Corn prices have a habit of setting a seasonal low around early October. Is wheat joining in too? ? Chicago corn futures are for now following the historical trend, with the December-23 contract on Thursday closing above $5.00/Bu for the first time in two months, up by 6% for the month so far. ? Sure, seasonal pressure from the US harvest remains an limiting factor.

But crop-23 is, after all, expected to fall well short of initial expectations, and is rebuilding supplies from downgraded stocks figure for the close of last season. ? Meanwhile, unease about prospects for South America’s 2023/24 corn output is ticking higher, thanks to factors such as Argentine dryness and weak Brazilian prices. ?

Ethanol demand for corn is also in focus, with the Middle Eastern tensions which have pushed prices of Brent crude back above $90/Bbl, and could yet spur further gains, as analysed in CRM Agri's Agricultural Economic Outlook.

The strength in corn is supporting prices in other grain markets too, including wheat, which this week crossed back above the landmark of ￡200/t in London, for the best-traded May-24 contract, with Chicago December-23 futures on Friday knocking on the door of $6.00/Bu too. ?

Still, wheat has its own reasons for support too, including some signs of a slowdown in the Russian export splurge which has been underwriting world supplies, just as China is in a buying mood. ?

Oilseeds are, if belatedly, finding some mojo too, with Chicago soybean futures for November-23 this week returning above $13.00/Bu, to set four-week highs. Political, as well as meteorological, factors could have a say in South American sowings as extend through the rest of the year. ?

However, rapeseed has been something of a laggard in Paris, weighed by softness in the broader vegetable oils sector. ? ?

How such factors play out, and what they mean for prices, are analysed in CRM Agri’s October Global Grain Outlook, as published yesterday.