- Oil dipped to $70 as the market balanced returning Libyan and Saudi supply against China’s stimulus plans.
- OPEC hiked its long-term oil demand forecasts and sees +18m b/d growth by 2050.
- Aramco sold $3bn in sukuk, lifting total debt issuance by KSA/PIF/Aramco this year above $50bn.
- ADQ sold $2bn in bonds, in 7 and 30-year tranches, following on from its debut in May.
- Leading chipmakers TSMC and Samsung are considering factories in the UAE, backed by Mubadala.
- The UAE-New Zealand Cepa was finalized after just four months of negotiations.
- The UAE is reportedly considering a $1.5bn loan to support Kenya.
- The UAE’s president met separately with Biden, Harris and Trump, as well as US corporate leaders. [see (1) below]
- The EU cleared the UAE’s e& of anti-competitive subsidies in its takeover of PPF Telecom.
- Qatar is in discussions to export LNG to South Africa.
- Ooredoo raised financing to expand its data centers in the region to meet AI demand.
- Qatar was the first Gulf country granted a US visa waiver. The Amir addressed the UN General Assembly and visited Trump in Florida.
- Oman’s non-oil GDP grew by 5.6% in Q2, driven by manufacturing, trade, transport and construction.
- Bahrain’s 2023 final accounts showed a deficit of 4.5% of GDP. Gas revenue was far below budget. [see (2) below]
- At the UN, Gulf leaders advocated for ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza and Saudi Arabia formed a new group with the EU to advocate for Palestinian statehood.
These headlines are taken from a 4,200-word report from my economic research service with GlobalSource Partners, a leading source of independent emerging market intelligence. Click on any report to get guest access and contact me or GlobalSource’s sales team for more information about subscribing to the service, which also includes the most extensive comparative GCC Databank available, updated weekly, and direct analytical support. Clients include banks, asset managers and governments spanning the GCC, Asia, Europe and the Americas.
Here are two brief samples from the report:
(1) UAE advances bilateral relations, diplomacy and commercial partnerships in the US
- MBZ met with Biden in the first-ever visit to the White House by a UAE president. Biden described the UAE as “a nation of trailblazers, always looking to the future, always making big bets” (WH1).
- He met separate with both Harris and Trump, amidst reports that the UAE wants to lock in progress in the bilateral relationship in advance of the election (WH, FT).
- A broad statement was issued on their “dynamic strategic” bilateral partnership including areas such as infrastructure, mineral supply chains in Africa, clean energy, space and defense.
- Artificial Intelligence was a key topic for discussion and a joint statement was issued by national security advisors Sheikh Tahnoon and Jake Sullivan on cooperation in the sector and plans were announced to develop a formal MoU. There is still an effort to secure US approval for a supply of advanced AI chips to the UAE; Microsoft, which has invested $1.5bn in the UAE's G42, said that export approvals were not complete but “getting very close”.
- The UAE was designated as a “major defense partner”, a status that has only previously been granted to India. However, it is more informal than “major non-NATO ally” status, which has been granted to Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.
- They also discussed Gaza and Sudan. This comes as a NY Times investigation alleged that the UAE is providing drone support to the RSF in Darfur under the cover of an aid operation in Chad (which it denies), while MBZ’s diplomatic advisor, Anwar Gargash, said the US should use its influence on Israel to secure ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon (BB).
- MBZ also met with the CEOs of Microsoft, BlackRock and Nvidia (Nat). The UAE delegation included Sheikh Tahnoon, Khaldoon al-Mubarak (CEO of Mubadala), Mohamed Alsuwaidi (Minister of Investment and CEO of ADQ), Peng Xiao (CEO of G42) and Faisal Al Bannai (Chairman of Edge Group).
- Sheikh Tahnoon also met with Elon Musk (Nat).
(2) Bahrain’s deficit quadruples but VAT revenue up 7%
- The final accounts for 2023 showed a deficit of -$2.1bn (4.5% of GDP), up from -1.1% in 202 not too far off the budgeted level of -$1.7bn (MoFNE).
- Although?oil?revenue declined by -20% y/y, it?was above the conservative budget, which had?assumed just $60/barrel. Gas revenue was up by 20% but barely half the budget level – it is unclear why such a large figure was assumed in the budget.
- Non-oil revenue was -2.2% below budget but still up by 3.4% y/y. The strongest growth was in the largest component, VAT, up 7%, whereas customs duties fell by -1%.
- Expenditure was up by 6.4% y/y but was -1% less than in the preliminary data. This increase was mainly due to a surge in transfers and subsidies. More positively, the wage bill declined by -5%. Capex rose by 19% but was still well below budget, as usual.
- As usual, parliament rejected the closing accounts, with 20/30 MPs voting against, also some indicated optimism about progress on the fiscal balance plan (GDN).
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