- The US’s draft UN resolution calling for (but not “demanding”) an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by China and Russia. [see (1) below]
- Ceasefire talks continue in Qatar, with differences over Palestinian prisoners and repopulating northern Gaza.
- Turkey and the GCC agreed to launch FTA negotiations, while the UAE is contemplating a bilateral deal with the EU due to long-stalled talks with the GCC.
- S&P affirmed Saudi Arabia but there was a slight deterioration in the snapshot score due to rising debt.
- PIF is reportedly considering acquiring Saudia and possibly merging it with the new Riyadh Air.
- Moody’s revised up its GDP growth forecasts for Abu Dhabi but slightly cut its fiscal surplus forecasts.
- Adnoc signed a preliminary 15-year LNG deal with Germany’s SEFE.
- S&P assigned a positive outlook to ADCB because of its improving asset quality.
- Dubai is merging developers Nakheel and Meydan and transferring them from ICD to Dubai Holding.
- Fitch upgraded Qatar to AA and expects its budget to remain in surplus into the 2030s. [see (2) below]
- Qatar’s hydrocarbon output rebounded in December and January, after a dip due to maintenance.
- Fitch expects Kuwait to pass a liquidity law and begin issuing debt in 2025/26 to finance a -10% of GDP deficit.
- Proposed changes to Kuwait’s public salary scales could boost expenditure by about 4%.
- Oman is planning IPOs including logistics firm Asyad Group and two OQ hydrocarbon units.
- The US approved the sale of $2bn in tanks to Bahrain, equivalent to its annual deficit.
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Here are two brief snippets from the report:
(1) US Gaza ceasefire resolution fails
- The US submitted a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and, significantly, did not specify that it should be time-limited, which is notable as the lack of such limitations was one reason the US had given for vetoing three previous ceasefire resolutions. Another notable point is that it did not link the release of hostages as a condition for a ceasefire.
- Despite the US’s tougher rhetoric towards Israel in recent weeks and concessions on the resolution text, it was not enough to pass it. China and Russia vetoed the resolution, with Russia’s ambassador saying that it was politicized and contained an effective green light for Israel to assault Rafah, although the draft reportedly contained strong language expressing concern about any such operations; at issue may have been that the resolution did not “demand” a ceasefire, but merely stated that one was imperative. Algeria also voted against it, because some but not all of its proposed amendments had been included, and Guyana abstained.
- Another draft is circulating, prepared by the 10 non-permanent members, which China said it prefers, and includes the “demands” language (UN, Ax, AP).
- Meanwhile, ceasefire negotiations plod on without results. Mossad’s chief returned to Doha for more talks today with his US and Egyptian counterparts and Qatar’s prime minister. Disagreements include which Palestinians would be released in an exchange and whether to allow people to return to northern Gaza (WSJ, WSJ2).
- A UN-backed report said northern Gaza could be in formal famine conditions by May and the rest of the territory by July. Already 100% of the population is classified as facing acute food insecurity, the first time this has ever been applied to an entire population (IPC, Rt).
- For anyone looking to donate to support people in Gaza, two options are UNRWA (which has been defunded by the US and other Western donors after a few of its 13,000 staff were linked to Hamas, although many European states are resuming funding) and World Central Kitchen, which made its first successful delivery of food by sea this week. Other suggestions of suitable charities that are able to provide assistance in Gaza currently are welcome in the comments.
(2) Qatar upgraded by Fitch
- Fitch upgraded Qatar to AA (Stable), making it the last of the rating agencies to return Qatar to its peak rating, on par with the UAE, largely due to the timing of its update schedule.
- Qatar was downgraded by all three agencies in 2017 because of the rift at the time with Gulf neighbors and concerns about rising non-resident deposits in the banking sector. Both of these issues have since been resolved and Qatar has embarked on a program to increase its LNG production by 82%.
- Since forecasts a central government surplus of 5.2% of GDP this year, easing to 3% in 2025. It adds that “Qatar is likely to retain budget surpluses until the 2030s”.
