Weekly GCC news to 15 Nov: Neom and Trump appointments

• OPEC revised down its oil demand forecasts for a fourth month, but they still look high.
• The UK-GCC free trade agreement is reportedly nearing agreement after two years of talks.
• Neom replaced its CEO amidst continued rumors of recalibration in Saudi gigaprojects. [see (1) below]
• PIF has raised about $2.6bn from selling stakes in Saudi Telecom and Nintendo.
• Dubai’s GDP grew by 3.3% in Q2, led by transport and finance.
• ADIA’s 2023 review implies assets have risen to $1.1trn; it increased allocations to private equity.
• A reshuffle in Qatar included new appointments for the CEO of QIA and commerce minister.
• Kuwait Investment Authority also replaced its CEO.
• Kuwait has stripped nationality from 0.3% of citizens so far this year, after reviewing eligibility.
• Oman’s Q3 fiscal surplus narrowed to 0.8% of GDP and 1.5% YTD.
• Trump’s proposed foreign policy appointments are mainly Iran hawks and pro-Israel ideologues. [see (2) below]
• Qatar paused mediation on Gaza and it was unclear if it was moving to expel Hamas’s office.
• Saudi Arabia hosted an Islamic conference on the conflicts and MBS accused Israel of genocide.
• Israel’s finance minister proposed annexation of the West Bank in 2025.

These headlines are taken from a 5,200-word report from my economic research service with GlobalSource Partners, a leading source of independent emerging market intelligence. Click on any report to get guest access and contact me or GlobalSource’s sales team for more information about the service, which also includes the most extensive comparative Databank of GCC economic data available (updated weekly) and direct analytical support. Clients include banks, asset managers and governments spanning the GCC, Asia, Europe and the Americas.

Here are two brief samples from the report:

(1) Neom replaces CEO amidst talk of recalibration

• The CEO of Neom, Nadhmi al-Nasr, was replaced after six years in the role. Media reports set it within the context of rumored recalibration of gigaprojects, while also noting that Nasr’s managerial style had attracted controversy in the past. Several other Neom executives have also left amidst controversy in recent months (WSJ , FT , Rt ).
• Aiman Al-Mudaifer, who headed PIF’s local real estate arm, was appointed as acting CEO. The official statement said, “As NEOM enters a new phase of delivery, this new leadership will ensure operational continuity, agility and efficiency” (X ).
• The WSJ has a good summary of the ongoing chatter about potential gigaproject delays and recalibration. Sporting facilities in Neom are reportedly being prioritized, including the facilities for the 2029 Asian Winter Games in Trojena and a stadium for use in the 2034 World Cup (Rt ).
• Nonetheless, The Line is progressing and appointed Austrian architect Delugan Meissi as the urban planner for the first phase of the city (Dez ).
• Also, Neom received a $3bn Italian export guarantee from Sace, covering 80% of the value of syndicated loans. Italian companies working on the project include Webuild which is implementing a $4.7bn contract for the Trojena mountain resort (BB ).

(2) Trump appoints hawks and ideologues to foreign policy roles

• Trump’s proposed appointments, some of which require Senate approval, provide hints about policy direction. They are largely drawn from the ideological wing of the Republican Party which has a maximalist commitment to Israel and a hawkish position on Iran (NYT , FT , RS ).
• This includes his picks for major appointments including Secretary of State (Marco Rubio), Defense Secretary (Pete Hegseth), National Security Advisor (Michael Waltz) and UN Ambassador (Elise Stefanik).
• Middle East-focused roles have a similar tone including Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor who strongly supports Israeli settlement of and annexation of the West Bank, as Ambassador to Israel. Meanwhile, Israel is appointing a settler activist, Yechiel Leiter, as its new ambassador to the US (Ax ). His Middle East envoy will be Steve Witkoff, a pro-Israel real estate tycoon and close friend (Ax ).
• On the face of it, these appointments seem to add to the risk of escalation in the Middle East and there is a sense of despair among many in pro-peace think tanks and human rights groups in the US.
• That said, Trump himself has more isolationist tendencies and a transactional not ideological view of foreign affairs. This has led to some mild hope in the region that he might have some chance of sealing a deal to end the Arab-Israeli conflict, as the editor of Saudi Arabia’s Arab News, Faisal J. Abbas , argued in an opinion article for Semafor . A hint of this dealmaking came from reports that Elon Musk, who is developing a broad advisory role, met with Iran’s UN ambassador to discuss ways of defusing tensions (NYT ).
• Kuwaiti analyst Bader Al-Saif writes for Chatham House that while the Gulf does not have high expectations, a Saudi push for a two-state solution, supported by the UAE and Qatar, “would speak to Trump’s ambitions to make history by delivering a seemingly unattainable peace deal”. He says the upcoming GCC summit (in Kuwait on 1 December) is an opportunity for the region to demonstrate a unified position.
• I wrote two op-eds on the implications of Trump, for Arabian Gulf Business Insight (on the GCC in generally) and the Muscat Daily (with an Oman focus). Thanks to both for the invitation to share some reflections.

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