Weekly Economic Report

This week, a significant amount of data related to the USA is due for release. This forthcoming data could crucially impact the Federal Reserve's decision regarding tight monetary policy at the end of the month. In addition to the USA, the UK and the Eurozone are also poised to release important data, including unemployment rates and GDP figures, which may set the tone for the new year for their respective economies. Here is a look at the upcoming data:

Monday (08/01):

1. Economic Sentiment - December 2023 (Eurozone - 10 AM)

• Background: The Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone rose slightly in Nov 2023 (by 0.3%), suggesting pessimistic expectations among both consumers and the market.
• Reasons: Rising borrowing costs and higher inflationary pressure.
• Expectations: It is expected to follow the same trend and increase slightly by 0.2%.

Tuesday (09/01):

1. Unemployment Rate - November 2023 (Eurozone - 10 AM)

• Background: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October was 6.5%, virtually unchanged from September.
• Reasons: This is mainly due to an increasing number of youth unemployed (people under 25).
• Expectations: It is predicted to remain the same in Nov 2023, i.e., at 6.5%.

Thursday (11/01)

1. Core Inflation Rate - YoY & MoM - December 2023 (USA - 1:30 PM)

The core inflation rate excludes the prices of volatile items such as food and energy.

MoM

• Background: The core inflation rate in the USA increased by 0.3% in Nov 2023.
• Reasons: This was due to the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary cycles.
• Expectations: It is predicted to increase by 0.2% in Dec 2023.

YoY

• Background: The year-over-year core inflation rate in the USA remained unchanged at 4% in Nov 2023, a two-year low, as a result of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.
• Expectations: It is predicted to be 3.9% in Dec 2023, which is less than the same period in Dec 2022.

2. Inflation Rate - YoY & MoM - December 2023 (USA - 1:30 PM)

MoM

• Background: Consumer prices edged 0.1% higher in Nov 2023.
• Reasons: This was due to high shelter prices, even though gasoline prices were comparatively lower.
• Expectations: It is predicted to be 0.1% in Dec 2023.

YoY

• Background: The annual inflation rate slowed to 3.1% in Nov 2023, the lowest reading in the last five months.
• Expectations: It is expected to remain unchanged in Dec 2023.

Friday (12/01)

1. Inflation rate YoY - December 2023 (China - 1:30 AM)

• Background: Consumer prices in China fell by 0.5% in Nov 2023, a sharper decline than expected. This marked the fastest decline in CPI since Nov 2020.
• Reasons: The main reasons behind this sharp decline were a significant drop in food prices and little to no changes in the prices of non-food goods and services (housing, education, transportation, etc).
• Expectations: The CPI is expected to decrease by 0.7% in Dec 2023.

2. GDP MoM - November 2023 (UK - 7 AM)

• Background: The UK economy contracted in Oct 2023 (-0.3%), reversing growth in the previous two months.
• Reasons: The largest contributor to this slowdown was a significant fall in the services sector.
• Expectations: The GDP in Dec 2023 is expected to show slight improvement (0.2%) after a decline in Nov 2023.

3. PPI MoM - December 2023 (USA - 1:30 PM)

• Background: Producer prices in the USA steadied in Nov 2023 at 0%.
• Reasons: This was mainly due to unchanged prices of goods and services.
• Expectations: Producer prices are predicted to increase slightly, by 0.1%, in Dec 2023.