Weekly Coffee News: South America

General News

The world looks to the day after tomorrow... who will win the race for the White House? Kamala Harris and Donald Trump again give their all to mobilize potential voters in this final stretch. There is no clear favorite for the time being. The forecasts of various election experts point to a highly narrow chance of victory for both candidates. We hope for a peaceful election and, above all, an election result that both sides accept.?

And while the presidential candidates continue their battle and the US Federal Reserve considers another interest rate cut, more than 50,000 enthusiastic runners took part in this year's NYC Marathon in New York. The average time was 4 hours and 40 minutes. The winners - mainly from Kenya - managed to finish in just over 2 hours (Abdi Nageeye: 2h 7'39'' and Sheila Chepkirui: 2h 24'35''). Simply amazing and inspiring!?

We have already covered the consequences of climate change in several newsletters. Temperatures are continuing to rise worldwide, and extreme weather conditions are increasingly affecting many regions of the world. The consequences of heavy rain, floods, droughts, forest fires, hurricanes, and typhoons are simply terrifying and should prompt us humans to act more consciously and cooperate internationally.?

The images of the flooding caused by the heavy rainfall in Spain - especially in the Valencia region - are haunting and terrifying. More than 200 deaths, many missing, destroyed houses, piled-up cars, and silted-up infrastructure. The frustration and despair of many people is absolutely understandable. Their anger at the inactive government became clear during a visit by the Spanish King Felipe VI: he was booed and pelted with mud.?

A look at Japan also shows climate change is a global phenomenon: for the first time in 130 years, the Mt. Fuji volcano is not covered in snow at this time of year. Usually, the top of the mountain is powdered white at the beginning of October, but the summer of 2024 was the hottest in Japan's history. Fortunately, it is finally due to snow in the next few weeks.?

The prolonged drought in Brazil now seems to be over. Several independent weather services confirm increased rainfall in all major coffee-growing regions. Soil moisture has recovered, and weather forecasts predict new rainfronts.

In addition, there is further bearish news. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reports rising coffee exports from producing countries worldwide, and Brazil's export agency Cecafe also reports record exports. At the same time, global coffee consumption is declining slightly. The fragile balance between supply and demand has probably been restored, and the question remains whether more coffee is becoming available than can actually be roasted and consumed. The international coffee prices on the commodity futures exchanges in New York (Arabica) and London (Robusta) at least point in this direction. The Arabica coffee contract KCZ24 fell to a new 2-month low and finished the week at 242.95 c/lb. The Robusta contract RMF25 fell to an 11-week low and closed on Friday at 4,279 USD/MT.?

The table below contains all coffee-related information. It is updated weekly:?

Origin News

Brazil

City elections were recently held across the 26 state capitals in Brazil, where new mayors were elected through two rounds of voting. Conservative and center-right parties emerged as the main winners.

Much-needed rain has finally arrived in Brazil, spreading across coffee-producing regions. A cold front brought ample rain to the southeast last week, with forecasts indicating continued rainfall in Cerrado, Sul de Minas, Mogiana, and Gar?a. Zona da Mata also expects isolated showers typical for this time of year. The rain has triggered a second flowering in Arabica coffee trees. The outlook for the upcoming harvest appears optimistic, but it is still too early to determine if the trees will fully recover from the long period of drought.

Throughout the year, concerns over long-term crop damage from drought conditions in Brazil have consistently supported coffee prices. However, recent rains have moderately lowered prices in the local market.

The Port of Santos is still impacted by low container inventory, though to a smaller extent.

Colombia

The UN Biodiversity Conference (COP16) recently took place in Cali, gathering over 18,000 participants, including delegates, NGOs, and private sector representatives. The convention's goals were to discuss the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. However, the global summit ended with mixed outcomes, as there was a lot of disagreement and indecision from various governments over funding and national commitments.

Rain has also reached Colombia's coffee-growing regions. While conditions remain dry in Santander and Magdalena, forecasts predict steady rainfall this week in Huila, Valle del Cauca, Antioquia, and Caldas.

The main coffee harvest in Colombia's southern regions, including Huila, Valle del Cauca, Antioquia, Caldas, and Risaralda, is progressing well and is expected to peak throughout November. It is estimated that the progress of the harvest for the 2024/2025 season is between 25% and 30%. The outlook is positive for both volume and quality, though concerns remain over labor availability and rising input costs. A high incidence of coffee berry borer has also been reported.?

Despite the concerns, there is speculation about better volumes in this coffee year. According to the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros (FNC), Colombia's coffee production is expected to increase this year.

As the harvest progresses, coffee flow is increasing. Internal prices remain high. However, market volatility is causing producers to hesitate to sell, as there is speculation of higher prices in the coming weeks.

On the logistics front, there are no significant updates from the ports of Buenaventura and Cartagena.

Peru

Former President Alejandro Toledo, who served from 2001 to 2006, has been sentenced to 20 years and 6 months in prison. He was arrested five years ago in California and extradited to Peru last year. He is accused of corruption and money laundering, allegations he denies.

Peru's weather side has good news: rainfall has finally arrived in the northern regions of Piura, Cajamarca, and San Martin, bringing some relief after a dry and warm period. However, conditions in Cusco and Puno are expected to remain drier and cloudy. Due to the prolonged drought, there are concerns about the development of the next crop.

The harvest across Peru is complete, and the focus is now on dry mills and shipping operations. Producers are selling, motivated by high local prices; however, coffee flow is starting to slow down.

A lack of 20-foot containers has been reported at the ports of Paita and Callao.