Weekly Coffee News: East Africa

General News

The tectonic plates of the global centers of power continue to shift - away from the Atlantic and towards the Pacific. While the USA, with its newly inaugurated President Donald Trump, is readjusting its course and forging ahead at full speed, Europe's economy remains in a holding pattern. The economic data for the fourth quarter of 2024 shows only modest growth and there is still no sign of a sustained upturn.

At this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump made clear demands via video broadcast: Lower interest rates and falling oil prices. Whether the US-Federal Reserve and Saudi Arabia will comply with the US President remains to be seen. At the same time, Europe is facing political challenges as central countries of the Union have to manage without stable governments. Unfortunately, the time-honored "divide et impera" principle seems more relevant than ever.

Meanwhile, a clear trend is continuing on the coffee market: prices are continuing to climb. Arabica prices in New York (KCH25) rose by astonishing 5.8 percent this week and reached a new record high of 349.80 c/lb on Friday. It is remarkable that the "fundamentals" - i.e. the fundamental supply and demand data - have hardly changed. Nevertheless, the market remains characterized by nervousness and tension. At the end of the week, the price fell slightly and was quoted at 347.55 c/lb.

Robusta (RMH25) also rose noticeably and closed the week up 9.8% at 5,544 USD/MT. The combination of global uncertainty, tight supply, and persistent demand creates an extremely volatile market situation.

Ethiopia

Climatic conditions in Ethiopia have improved, with unseasonal rains giving way to partly sunny and cloudy days across Sidamo, Yirgacheffe, and Guji.

The harvest in Ethiopia’s lowlands is complete, and the main crop in most regions is in its final phase. The outlook for the 24/25 harvest is positive, with potential for a? larger yield compared to the previous season. On another happy note, quality is also expected to increase. Our team is eagerly waiting for the first samples to arrive!

When it comes to local prices, these have reached record highs, allowing producers to capitalize on the rally with favorable sales.

Kenya

Kenya’s main crop is complete. Quality has significantly improved, driving strong outright prices for top lots. With high auction prices, sellers are rushing to send parchment to dry mills.?

Last week, approximately 28,000 bags were offered in the auction. The next auction (Sale 16) is set for tomorrow, January 28th.

Meanwhile, operations at Mombasa Port remain slow, impacting vessel sailing schedules.

Tanzania

Tanzania began the year with a suspected outbreak of Marburg virus disease. The World Health Organization has reported at least nine cases in the Kagera region, including one fatality. Given Kagera’s proximity to Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda, there is concern about the potential spread to neighboring countries.

On a more positive note, Tanzania will host the 21st African Fine Coffees Conference & Exhibition (AFCA Conference) in Dar es Salaam, starting February 26th. The event will also feature the Africa Barista Championship, adding to the excitement.

Weather conditions in northern Tanzania, including areas like Arusha and Kilimanjaro, remain rainy and cloudy, with similar conditions reported in the southern regions of Mbozi and Mbeya. Meanwhile, in Nyasa and Mbinga, warmer temperatures of up to 31°C are accompanied by occasional rainfall.

The coffee harvest was completed last month, and most coffee has already been milled and allocated to buyers, leaving dry mills relatively quiet. Farmers are now focusing on the upcoming season, fertilizing and managing pests as plants enter the cherry formation phase.

Last week’s auction in Moshi saw approximately 3,000 bags on offer, with the next auction scheduled for January 30th.

Meanwhile, operations at the port of Dar es Salaam remain unstable, with vessel schedule disruptions causing delays in cargo declaration and customs clearance.

Rwanda

Rainy conditions persist across most of Rwanda.

The upcoming harvest season is already on sight, with cherries starting to mature. Harvest activities are expected to begin in the coming weeks, while washing stations prepare to receive the first cherries of the 2025 harvest.

Uganda

Uganda began 2025 with the dissolution of the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), which has now been integrated into the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry, and Fisheries (MAAIF). There are ongoing concerns about how this change may affect the country’s coffee sector.

On the weather front, rainy conditions persist across the Central Lowlands, particularly around Kampala and Lake Victoria. In contrast, the northern regions of Maracha, Arua, Nebbi, and Gulu remain dry, with temperatures reaching up to 33°C.

Both Robusta and Arabica harvests are underway, with cherries steadily flowing into washing stations. As the season gains momentum, now is a great time to start thinking about booking some Ugandan lots!