Weekly Coffee News: Central America

General Coffee News

440… a number that seemed unattainable in the coffee world just a few months ago, has long been established in medicine as a benchmark for the heart's electrical rhythm. But in the coffee industry, it sets a different pulse: coffee farmers are celebrating as their income from selling the magical elixir has skyrocketed to unprecedented heights in recent months. Meanwhile, cooperatives, exporters, importers, and roasters struggle with shortness of breath and palpitations. Liquidity is no longer just a financial metric but a survival strategy.

The financial and insurance sectors are also getting nervous: bankers are developing extremely thin skin, and insurance companies see nothing but risks everywhere. The number of defibrillators in credit departments has likely skyrocketed alongside coffee prices.

Sooner or later, this rapid price development will be felt in coffee lovers' wallets—the logical consequence: a decline in demand. But until that happens, the situation remains highly tense. Stock levels are still tight, supply chains and logistics are under massive strain, climate change is becoming increasingly noticeable, and new geopolitical and tariff-related shifts further disrupt the global flow of goods.

At least today, Monday, February 17, the New York Arabica market will remain calm: "President's Day" ensures a holiday and thus a brief moment of relief. But by Tuesday, volatility is expected to return. Last Thursday, the March-25 contract (KCH25) hit an all-time high of 440.85 c/lb. After 17 consecutive bull days, the market took a much-needed break on Friday, closing at 419.75 c/lb—still 3.8% higher for the week. Shortness of breath is guaranteed!

London, on the other hand, remains stable—though at an extremely high level—moving sideways. However, Robusta prices also increased by 4%, closing on Friday at 5,781 USD/MT.

A remarkable trend: In recent weeks, more than half of the exchange-traded coffee lots have been handled by speculators—players who have little to do with coffee as a physical product. Their buying and selling decisions are no longer made by humans but by the algorithms of their AI-driven systems. And what do these algo-traders base their strategies on? No one really knows.

The following table contains the most essential information on the coffee market. We update it weekly.

Origin News

The abrupt shutdown of USAID has sent shockwaves through developing countries, including those in Central America. The agency’s dismantling has had a severe impact on the coffee sector, which benefited from millions in investments over three decades to support producers. Aimed at promoting trade, reducing poverty, and addressing food security, USAID funded numerous projects across the region. However, the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid abruptly halted all active initiatives, leaving organizations and thousands of beneficiaries in limbo. With its workforce slashed from over 13,000 to fewer than 300, the agency’s closure has deepened instability in the global development landscape.

In other news, President Bukele of El Salvador has proposed a deal to the U.S.: accepting criminals deported from the U.S., including those with American citizenship, and housing them in El Salvador’s mega prison in exchange for a fee. While Bukele’s tough stance on gangs has been widely praised, it has also faced strong criticism from human rights groups.

Meanwhile, Honduras is gearing up for primary elections in March, ahead of the general elections in November, where the successor to current President Xiomara Castro will be elected.

Climate conditions are improving, with warmer days becoming more frequent across the region. Temperatures are expected to reach around 30°C this week, with occasional rain in between.

After a delay of nearly two months, the coffee harvest in Central America has finally gained pace. In Honduras and Nicaragua, the harvest is almost complete in lower-altitude regions, while it is peaking in higher-altitude areas. In Guatemala, harvest activities in high-altitude regions are just beginning.

In Nicaragua, particularly in Nueva Segovia, reports indicate that there is coffee cherry left unharvested due to the shortage of pickers. Costa Rica is facing similar labor shortages, compounded by Nicaragua’s strict migration laws, which prevent workers from traveling to Costa Rican farms. According to ICAFE (Instituto del Café de Costa Rica), around 15% of coffee has been lost as it could not be harvested. In response, they recently launched a campaign encouraging local participation in coffee harvesting.

As coffee flow improves, shipping is picking up pace, recovering from delays caused by the late start of the harvest.